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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's pretty wild the GFS has nothing in its run...obviously some waves here and there but the overall background is not not conducive for anything outside of some brief development. Have to see if things begin to change more quickly as we near peak. 

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade. 

Both updates from Colorado State and NOAA a few weeks back maintained an above average season and didn't decrease anything from their previous update. I was a little shocked by this but there must be confidence from the experts the second half will get busy. 

Caribbean and Gulf could really be something to watch. Waters there (as per what's been the norm lately) are running above average and have largely been undisturbed and we're still a bit away from peak climo for SSTs. We'll also start getting more fronts to progress into the deep South (and stronger fronts). 

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Both updates from Colorado State and NOAA a few weeks back maintained an above average season and didn't decrease anything from their previous update. I was a little shocked by this but there must be confidence from the experts the second half will get busy. 

Caribbean and Gulf could really be something to watch. Waters there (as per what's been the norm lately) are running above average and have largely been undisturbed and we're still a bit away from peak climo for SSTs. We'll also start getting more fronts to progress into the deep South (and stronger fronts). 

I think it's a fairly easy call for above average overall. For me, the Caribbean and SW Atlantic are the places to be though the Gulf will get theirs. 

19 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Gotta love TPC showing us that disturbance by the Windwards....then telling us it has a 0% chance of development.

two_atl_7d0.png

Well this invest survived longer than any of the models expected, but the graveyard got it. 

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44 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Gotta love TPC showing us that disturbance by the Windwards....then telling us it has a 0% chance of development.

two_atl_7d0.png

The wave was designated with medium probabilities but was lowered as it never really became organized and is moving into a more hostile environment. It's listed with 0% because the 8 AM update lowered it from either 10% to 0%...that's why it was still listed. 

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