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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's pretty wild the GFS has nothing in its run...obviously some waves here and there but the overall background is not not conducive for anything outside of some brief development. Have to see if things begin to change more quickly as we near peak. 

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade. 

Both updates from Colorado State and NOAA a few weeks back maintained an above average season and didn't decrease anything from their previous update. I was a little shocked by this but there must be confidence from the experts the second half will get busy. 

Caribbean and Gulf could really be something to watch. Waters there (as per what's been the norm lately) are running above average and have largely been undisturbed and we're still a bit away from peak climo for SSTs. We'll also start getting more fronts to progress into the deep South (and stronger fronts). 

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