Tracking the tropics - 2025

[ROOSTA]

Hurricane Models continue with a W track. Now as far as 73.1 W 29.3 N
The consistent Westward track continues (no panic yet)
Tell you if I lived in New England its very concerning.  

[Torch Tiger]

0/37 12z gfs ens members take the storm anywhere near NE

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

0/37 12z gfs ens members take the storm anywhere near NE

Big shift west on the 12z EPS but still curves out south of here

[Baroclinic Zone]

This could do a BM track and still give us cirrus. Not even close.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yea pretty large shift with major implications verbatim for SE Bahamas and would get some coastal flooding and sustained Tropical Storm force winds for Hatteras.  

It did that before and snapped right back within one cycle. I think it’s still an outlier until other guidance (GFS) comes along.

The only thing that was of modest interest to me though on that run was something I noted days ago. Depending on the timing of the trough there may be a fast moving PRE that sets up somewhere.

 

Again, unless the Euro knows what it’s doing this is all moot. 

———

THIS IS A WEENIE PRODUCT FOR INEEDSNOW

 

[ROOSTA]

I should be banned for this statement.
18z NAM. Anyone wanna look?

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
 
...CATEGORY 5 ERIN CONTINUING TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

 

Shouldn't ERIN be written off by NOW? 

[ineedsnow]

huge  jump west on the 18z GFS

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

huge  jump west on the 18z GFS

I don't know if it's huge but it's definitely there.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, kdxken said:

I don't know if it's huge but it's definitely there.

that's huge for one run

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Gfs with a solid 100 mile tic west. Again just news for Hatteras and Bahamas with possible Tropical Storm Conditions. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Gfs with a solid 100 mile tic west. Again just news for Hatteras and Bahamas with possible Tropical Storm Conditions. 

It affects our sensible wx next week too, Bigger implications 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It affects our sensible wx next week too, Bigger implications 

its not done trending either..

[kdxken]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They aren’t shifting. Enjoy the recurve, it’s the only recurve you got.

Oh yee of little faith.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its not done trending either..

I don’t mean cane or direct effects. But it will not be a Coc k / smoke week as has been advertised. Not straight thru anyway 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

huge  jump west on the 18z GFS

I told you its coming 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For weenies in Hatteras

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t mean cane or direct effects. But it will not be a Coc k / smoke week as has been advertised. Not straight thru anyway 

"Meanwhile, dewpoints start off the week in the 40s
and 50s meaning no high humidity to speak of, though dewpoints may creep up into the 60s briefly on Wednesday before drier air is once again pulled in behind the exiting tropical system"

[WxWatcher007]

Hmm…

No rain, but the wind field is massive on all guidance. Significant hit for Newfoundland too. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Best fish storm evah!

[CoastalWx]

What a waste 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hmm…

No rain, but the wind field is massive on all guidance. Significant hit for Newfoundland too. 

 

This could “possibly” be like that deal we had in I think 2001. We had a strong offshore cane and strong HP to north and it created huge pressure gradient . There were HWW for all of SNE. I remember it distinctly. Was sunny/ cirrus but winds ripped during the day . I may not have year right, but I’ve talked about that event in here before 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a waste 

CVs are pretty but they’re the 10 at the party that’s too good for everyone.

[ROOSTA]

I'm more worried about the next.
Short term forecast for ERIN isn't even close to being accurate. 
If this was my profession, I'd be very careful declaring A FISH.
The thrill (skill) is why and how? This we all know but the timing is off.
My memory is terrible, years and named storms. I recall a tropical entity that miss (3) troughs, looped a couple of times just off NC.

     

[SouthCoastMA]

Erin is going to be strong and stacked vertically. it will feel the tug, and we have a forcefield up here. 

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro came back east a bit but not by much.. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could “possibly” be like that deal we had in I think 2001. We had a strong offshore cane and strong HP to north and it created huge pressure gradient . There were HWW for all of SNE. I remember it distinctly. Was sunny/ cirrus but winds ripped during the day . I may not have year right, but I’ve talked about that event in here before 

It was gustav September 11th 2002. I remember it so well because it produced the most epic barrels on Long Island I have ever seen. Until the winds went nuclear North at 50mph and blew the swell down.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I'm more worried about the next.
Short term forecast for ERIN isn't even close to being accurate. 
If this was my profession, I'd be very careful declaring A FISH.
The thrill (skill) is why and how? This we all know but the timing is off.
My memory is terrible, years and named storms. I recall a tropical entity that miss (3) troughs, looped a couple of times just off NC.

     

Felix 1995 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It was gustav September 11th 2002. I remember it so well because it produced the most epic barrels on Long Island I have ever seen. Until the winds went nuclear North at 50mph and blew the swell down.

 

I’m glad someone else remembers that ! Everytime I bring it up people say it never happened. Not that it’ll happen with this.. but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m glad someone else remembers that ! Everytime I bring it up people say it never happened. Not that it’ll happen with this.. but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

I remember it too-was not well forecast but we had 50-65mph gusts under clear skies-interacting with a high pressure off to the west if I remember correctly-alot of tree limbs down..

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember it too-was not well forecast but we had 50-65mph gusts under clear skies-interacting with a high pressure off to the west if I remember correctly-alot of tree limbs down..

Yes.. lots of 60+ gusts that no one saw coming even up to day before 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember it too-was not well forecast but we had 50-65mph gusts under clear skies-interacting with a high pressure off to the west if I remember correctly-alot of tree limbs down..

Yeah, went from foggy and zero wind at 6am to blasting north wind (gusts 60+) by noon under deep blue skies. One of the more incredible weather days we have seen in our life times. I remember walking up the beach into sand blasting gusts and having to hold on to my board for dear life.