Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s exactly what a TC would look like in a stable airmass lol. 

it's not just 'stable' air.  

There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor.  There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth.  But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces.    Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis.  Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol.  

Dry air is another aspect.  The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine.   WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im still tracking but this is looking like a miss.

Meh

I honestly don’t know why you guys do this in winter and summer. You would hear a lot more excitement if this was more of a likely hit, from the Mets. Trust me, I would love some excitement, but not this time.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's not just 'stable' air.  

There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor.  There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth.  But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces.    Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis.  Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol.  

Dry air is another aspect.  The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine.   WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

 

 

Headlong into it

[Cyclone-68]

It would be fitting to the general mood if the system disappears and never even makes it across the Atlantic 

[Torch Tiger]

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

[Cyclone-68]

29 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

I barely saw Gloria really. Knocked over a couple of trees and a little bit of light rain and that was it for me..Hurricane Bob was a total non entity when I lived in Dedham..Hurricane Belle in ‘76 when I was a wee lad had some heavy rain and gusty winds but I don’t think it was even a hurricane at landfall 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro OTS... I'll give it a couple days

[FXWX]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro OTS... I'll give it a couple days

Denial is never healthy... Lol

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Denial is never healthy... Lol

2/3 of the EPS members are west of it though 

[ineedsnow]

EPS  definitely has some east coast threats

[WxWatcher007]

Forgetting Atlantic Canada lol. There’s a 948mb over St. John’s. 

Is Nick still up there? 

[ineedsnow]

We EPS!   and until it shows no hits we track!

[ineedsnow]

9 members recurve between NC and SNE close enough for me to keep tracking 

[CoastalWx]

They'll always be "interesting members" when you have dozens of perturbed members.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They'll always be "interesting members" when you have dozens of perturbed members.

Let him go…you can’t save him  

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They'll always be "interesting members" when you have dozens of perturbed members.

 

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

Henri was our chance and that thing just never got its act together lol

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Looks like my 2 yr old niece drew that.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

It sucks . I’ll die having my last cane being Gloria . Bob doesn’t count in CT

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We EPS!   and until it shows no hits we track!

You need help. 

[Modfan2]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It sucks . I’ll die having my last cane being Gloria . Bob doesn’t count in CT

I had my Fill with Hurricane Matthew, Irma, Michael, and just missed (stalled 70 miles away) Hurricane Dorian and finally Hurricane Ian while living in FL before moving back to CT….I am all set!

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It sucks . I’ll die having my last cane being Gloria . Bob doesn’t count in CT

yeah we'll need to chase to see one.  awful

edit, if my pension ever decides to kick in, i'm outtie to Canestown USA

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I had my Fill with Hurricane Matthew, Irma, Michael, and just missed (stalled 70 miles away) Hurricane Dorian and finally Hurricane Ian while living in FL before moving back to CT….I am all set!

Wish we lived there then 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Henri was our chance and that thing just never got its act together lol

Yeah honestly that name was cursed, way too wimpy sounding

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS is going to whiff Bermuda 

hold onto your perturbed EPS members tightly

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS is going to whiff Bermuda 

hold onto your perturbed EPS members tightly

At least the OP Euro is west of Bermuda. 

W

[Hoth]

4 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Henri was our chance and that thing just never got its act together lol

Yeah that was so lame. Isaias was much more fun. 

[ROOSTA]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

I had my Fill with Hurricane Matthew, Irma, Michael, and just missed (stalled 70 miles away) Hurricane Dorian and finally Hurricane Ian while living in FL before moving back to CT….I am all set!

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish we lived there then 

I'm never going to write off the threat of a tropical system especially given a week out. Watching like a hawk presently.
Nice to wanting to experience a Major Hurricane, but once you do most I think most would never want to do it again. Not only protecting property and more importantly life. Erin has waffled a bit on the last few model runs. Concern is the general track W and S...weaker system? And will that overall trend continue? Many times, should say what's the elephant in the room? 
Until Erin tracks to the N and E of my location I won't write if off.    

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

 

I'm never going to write off the threat of a tropical system especially given a week out. Watching like a hawk presently.
Nice to wanting to experience a Major Hurricane, but once you do most I think most would never want to do it again. Not only protecting property and more importantly life. Erin has waffled a bit on the last few model runs. Concern is the general track W and S...weaker system? And will that overall trend continue? Many times, should say what's the elephant in the room? 
Until Erin tracks to the N and E of my location I won't write if off.    

Hope all is well Don