WxWatcher007 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine. Just a monster. I mean look at this. 12z And 00z Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes). I think a big part of that is tied into that trough digging into southeast Canada. Seems to really do a number on that riding. If the GFS is too aggressive with that degree of troughing that could open the door for a stronger ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I believe the trend is to overall deamplify the players over the CONUS—the PNA ridge and the gyre over Eastern Canada. The teleconnections across the board are trending to neutral over the next 10 days. It’s spectacularly boring on that front. We’re pretty much left with just the background climate. With that, this will be a nice test case to see how much easterly flow we can develop without a deep trough over eastern US; i.e. how much of our background climate has actually changed as it relates to the higher heights regularly observed over the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine. That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models.. Too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Blows dongs and Jack dicks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago need so many things to go right. less troughing across QC-CAN, slower solution/development and south. avoid or be less influenced that little weakness/trough that wants to tug it poleward just enough to make sure it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: need that big low across QC to scoot north-east and/or be far less bully Canes have been known to totally change modeling , pump ridges etc. Can’t discount anything at this juncture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Canes have been known to totally change modeling , pump ridges etc. Can’t discount anything at this juncture if the U/A looked better I'd give it time, but it looks terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models.. Im feeling this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I think a big part of that is tied into that trough digging into southeast Canada. Seems to really do a number on that riding. If the GFS is too aggressive with that degree of troughing that could open the door for a stronger ridge 18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: if the U/A looked better I'd give it time, but it looks terrible 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew. The farther west it comes it also affects the general wx pattern late month. A wise man would say “take em up “ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The farther west it comes it also affects the general wx pattern late month. A wise man would say “take em up “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: great song! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Im feeling this Good luck. 18z AI way west and still only my worst case scenario of breezy and a few showers on the cape. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Im feeling this If this started out further south then maybe. But we're already at a disadvantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If this started out further south then maybe. But we're already at a disadvantage. Lets see how far west it tracks before it heads north and how much strength it gains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Too late Anthony, too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If this started out further south then maybe. But we're already at a disadvantage. Keeps going south and later recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lets see how far west it tracks before it heads north and how much strength it gains. Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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