Tracking the tropics - 2025

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

She not gone.. that low in the Ohio Valley has been showing up on some runs.. get that ridge to build in.a bit and that low in Ohio to be a bit further west and it could be fun.. 

it’s over dude 

[Torch Tiger]

Never had a chance

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

it’s over dude 

6z Euro and bit west of 0z 6z EPS also a bit west through hr144.  I get that chances are slim but you guys give up way to easy.. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

it’s over dude 

Its over at 200 hours?  Since when we make definte statements this far out?

[TheBudMan]

Its over at 200 hours?  Since when we make definte statements this far out?

#ScooterKnows


Innocent citizens of NYC now being dragged off the streets by an enraged patrolman

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its over at 200 hours?  Since when we make definte statements this far out?

Dude this is not the pattern. It’s over. Go catch a mid town shooter.

[SouthCoastMA]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro and bit west of 0z 6z EPS also a bit west through hr144.  I get that chances are slim but you guys give up way to easy.. 

It's like <1% chance, not worth spending time over. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

It's like <1% chance, not worth spending time over. 

How many times have we heard this since the inception of American Wx?

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro and bit west of 0z 6z EPS also a bit west through hr144.  I get that chances are slim but you guys give up way to easy.. 

There is a very clear pattern that brings the storms up the coast to do damage. This is not even close to it. At worse it gets breezy conditions to Cape Cod maybe some showers at worst.

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The next time Wiz complains about every swirl getting named by the NHC I'll just show him this. IR, surface obs, and sat wind estimates have had this a TC for a good portion of the day. 

hey nothing to complain at there  

[FXWX]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a very clear pattern that brings the storms up the coast to do damage. This is not even close to it. At worse it gets breezy conditions to Cape Cod maybe some showers at worst.

THIS!!! There is a very clear pattern that brings the storms up the coast to do damage. This is not even close to it.

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude this is not the pattern. It’s over. Go catch a mid town shooter.

Some people forget or don't understand that weather forecasting is way more than just looking at the solution of a model output. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Some people forget or don't understand that weather forecasting is way more than just looking at the solution of a model output. 

If that thing ever came between, let’s say NYC and Nantucket then I’ll give credit with credit is due. I always do. I’m just not really seeing that right now. Look at all that Northwest flow from Maine down to Nova Scotia at 500.

[Cyclone-68]

All I know is if Canada steals another one I’m going to jump into the Atlantic 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If that thing ever came between, let’s say NYC and Nantucket then I’ll give credit with credit is due. I always do. I’m just not really seeing that right now. Look at all that Northwest flow from Maine down to Nova Scotia at 500.

There is always that super low percentage it happens but like you said, there is a very specific and clear pattern to get these up the coasts. There is a reason why they are infrequent and the return rate is in the years. I get looking the extended range SLP or snow maps or whatever is fun but having an understanding of the current pattern in place and how the pattern will evolve will give you tremendous insight as to what you can expect will unfold in the extended range (there are exceptions of course). 

[ineedsnow]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If that thing ever came between, let’s say NYC and Nantucket then I’ll give credit with credit is due. I always do. I’m just not really seeing that right now. Look at all that Northwest flow from Maine down to Nova Scotia at 500.

If we get a low to cut off by Ohio like some models are suggesting I think we have a chance.. even if it's slim

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

If we get a low to cut off by Ohio like some models are suggesting I think we have a chance.. even if it's slim

there is a 0.0% chance. better off tracking an asteroid or comet crashing into earth

[jbenedet]

I agree that the troughing in the western atlantic looks very unfavorable to an east coast hit, but the syntopic scale ridge out west is deamplifying, and sliding west, while the western atlantic ridge is building west. Both those trends are favorable to a close approach..

[SouthCoastMA]

57 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

there is a 0.0% chance. better off tracking an asteroid or comet crashing into earth

Maybe somewhere between that and verifying a modeled day 7 snowstorm during Winter

[Torch Tiger]

54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I agree that the troughing in the western atlantic looks very unfavorable to an east coast hit, but the syntopic scale ridge out west is deamplifying, and sliding west, while the western atlantic ridge is building west. Both those trends are favorable to a close approach..

Close approach, yeah that's not out of the question.  zzzz

[WxWatcher007]

Yes, folks here are always too quick to cancel, but we gotta be honest—you would need a lot to happen to make this a bona fide EC threat that this point.

You will see this on ensembles—which are the better option for analysis—but I’m using the op because it’s easier to see. The troughing signal to our west is obviously important to having any chance but it’s poorly timed, poorly positioned, and too slow to cut off. That can change at this range but that’s a secondary issue. 

The first and most fundamental issue is that the weakness in Atlantic ridging is happening way way way too early. It’s basically turning near Bermuda. 

 

That weakness isn’t out in weenie range. And while to Pope’s point it can change (and I think the GFS is too early with the weakness), whenever you’re asking a lot of the steering conditions in tropical, it usually doesn’t work out. 

So while it’s not over technically, the odds of a U.S. hit are looking increasingly small imo. 

 

Last thing I’ll say though is that even with the super ensemble the longer range members tend to be underdispursive. If that troughing in the eastern US is real I’d watch in Atlantic Canada. They’ve actually done exceptionally well with these kind of setups in recent years. 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I agree that the troughing in the western atlantic looks very unfavorable to an east coast hit, but the syntopic scale ridge out west is deamplifying, and sliding west, while the western atlantic ridge is building west. Both those trends are favorable to a close approach..

Just an observation - but looking at this again, it's almost as though the entirety of the synoptic scale flow over NA subtly moving east to west. Pretty cool. 

[MJO812]

Cmc much closer to coast 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc much closer to coast 

I’m still logging insurance claims from CMC output.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc much closer to coast 

Where’s the impetus to drive it NNW up the coast?

[CoastalWx]

GFS way OTS. There is nothing to bring this near SNE. Just look at SE Canada. Raging NW flow into New England and points east. 

[CT Rain]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS way OTS. There is nothing to bring this near SNE. Just look at SE Canada. Raging NW flow into New England and points east. 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

At this point, we might have to start lighting forest fires to generate ratings.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

At this point, we might have to start lighting forest fires to generate ratings.

Just brutally boring. 

[CoastalWx]

On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine.