Chrisrotary12 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Can we get a “Ain’t happening James” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Can we get a “Ain’t happening James” 6Z GEFS has many east coast hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 It’s gonna gain too much latitude. There’s always next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s gonna gain too much latitude. There’s always next year. Its coming. Im feeling it this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Just now, MJO812 said: Its coming. Im feeling it this year. Keep feeling it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s over as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Meh. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6Z GEFS has many east coast hits East coast of Bermuda? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 There’s 1954 again… https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1954514778216333731?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Now it’s definitely over 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Fucking Bustardi had to do it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Meh. Good luck. Pretty sure you’d be washed into the GOM on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 So ridiculous to be riding op runs for east coast landfalls on a wave that emerged off coast of Africa yesterday morning… Everything from a recurve east of NS to a track into the keys is on the table… Model junkies… 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: So ridiculous to be riding op runs for east coast landfalls on a wave that emerged off coast of Africa yesterday morning… Everything from a recurve east of NS to a track into the keys is on the table… Model junkies… the only option on the table is what actually happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 In my opinion the GEFS/EPS are telling us that too much latitude early on will not be the issue for a potential track close to New England. We have pretty solid agreement on that within 10 days. What is a much bigger issue is the strength of the western Atlantic ridge after day 10. This critical piece is seeing huge run to run variation, so tons of uncertainty there… Imo this will be a long and fun one to track at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Meh. Good luck. i thought everyone knew we needed a trough to our west for a cane hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Gfs is well OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i thought everyone knew we needed a trough to our west for a cane hit I mean I guess there’s some scenarios that aren’t classic…but the whole H5 look doesn’t scream cane hit to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its coming. Im feeling it this year. The only thing you'll end up feeling are these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 I’m not feeling this either..The boring weather regime continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 34 years of flaccidity. Let’s do another 34 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 34 years of flaccidity. Let’s do another 34 years. I’m sitting next to my nephew who just happened to be born on the same day that Hurricane Bob came in. And he’s definitely no kid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 True CVs (actual development near the Cabo Verde Islands) are no different from an HECS. The big dog potential shows up from time to time but you need everything to line up for that potential to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Best way is getting cyclogensis off a stalled front of SE coast, with troughing scooping it up the coast. Every year I see models try to squeeze a landfall between ridging and it never works out. Too thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 34 years of flaccidity. Let’s do another 34 years. Dead by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 38 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Best way is getting cyclogensis off a stalled front of SE coast, with troughing scooping it up the coast. Every year I see models try to squeeze a landfall between ridging and it never works out. Too thread the needle Problem is the same stalled front is also the kicker. In my mind, the simplest setup is a tropical wave developing closer to the Antilles, getting pushed into hugging the Bahamas or moving just NE of there by a ridge, and getting captured. Again, CVs are exceptionally tricky. That's a lot of expanse to cross without getting recurved. It's easy to forget, but 1938 had a "high latitude" track...but ended up near the Bahamas. 90% of this subforum would be cancelling looking at how far north of the islands that track is. 1938 Bob Gloria Donna Carol 1944 @Quincy wrote about this years ago and it's still just as useful. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 12Z EURO 150 miles or so east of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Don’t do it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2025 Share Posted August 10, 2025 Euro is going to be very close as 97L misses the initial trough (again about 7-8 days out) and Atlantic ridging builds back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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