Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Chrisrotary12]

Can we get a “Ain’t happening James”

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can we get a “Ain’t happening James”

6Z GEFS has many east coast hits

[CoastalWx]

It’s gonna gain too much latitude. There’s always next year.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gonna gain too much latitude. There’s always next year.

Its coming. Im feeling it this year.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its coming. Im feeling it this year.

Keep feeling it

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s over as usual

 

[CoastalWx]

Meh. Good luck.

[Modfan2]

42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6Z GEFS has many east coast hits

East coast of Bermuda?

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s 1954 again…

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1954514778216333731?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

Now it’s definitely over

[Torch Tiger]

Fucking Bustardi had to do it

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Good luck.

Pretty sure you’d be washed into the GOM on this one. 
 

 

[jbenedet]

So ridiculous to be riding op runs for east coast landfalls on a wave that emerged off coast of Africa yesterday morning…

Everything from a recurve east of NS to a track into the keys is on the table…

Model junkies… 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

So ridiculous to be riding op runs for east coast landfalls on a wave that emerged off coast of Africa yesterday morning…

Everything from a recurve east of NS to a track into the keys is on the table…

Model junkies… 

the only option on the table is what actually happens

[jbenedet]

In my opinion the GEFS/EPS are telling us that too much latitude early on will not be the issue for a potential track close to New England. We have pretty solid agreement on that within 10 days.

What is a much bigger issue is the strength of the western Atlantic ridge after day 10. This critical piece is seeing huge run to run variation, so tons of uncertainty there…

Imo this will be a long and fun one to track at least.

[forkyfork]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Good luck.

i thought everyone knew we needed a trough to our west for a cane hit

[MJO812]

Gfs is well OTS

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i thought everyone knew we needed a trough to our west for a cane hit

I mean I guess there’s some scenarios that aren’t classic…but the whole H5 look doesn’t scream cane hit to me.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its coming. Im feeling it this year.

The only thing you'll end up feeling are these 

[Cyclone-68]

I’m not feeling this either..The boring weather regime continues 

[CoastalWx]

34 years of flaccidity. Let’s do another 34 years.

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

34 years of flaccidity. Let’s do another 34 years.

I’m sitting next to my nephew who just happened to be born on the same day that Hurricane Bob came in. And he’s definitely no kid 

[WxWatcher007]

True CVs (actual development near the Cabo Verde Islands) are no different from an HECS. The big dog potential shows up from time to time but you need everything to line up for that potential to materialize.

[SouthCoastMA]

Best way is getting cyclogensis off a stalled front of SE coast, with troughing scooping it up the coast. Every year I see models try to squeeze a landfall between ridging and it never works out. Too thread the needle

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

34 years of flaccidity. Let’s do another 34 years.

Dead by then 

[WxWatcher007]

38 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Best way is getting cyclogensis off a stalled front of SE coast, with troughing scooping it up the coast. Every year I see models try to squeeze a landfall between ridging and it never works out. Too thread the needle

Problem is the same stalled front is also the kicker.

In my mind, the simplest setup is a tropical wave developing closer to the Antilles, getting pushed into hugging the Bahamas or moving just NE of there by a ridge, and getting captured. 

Again, CVs are exceptionally tricky. That's a lot of expanse to cross without getting recurved.

It's easy to forget, but 1938 had a "high latitude" track...but ended up near the Bahamas. 90% of this subforum would be cancelling looking at how far north of the islands that track is. 

1938

 

Bob

 

Gloria

Donna

Carol

1944

 

@Quincy wrote about this years ago and it's still just as useful. 

[ineedsnow]

12Z EURO 150 miles or so east of the cape

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Don’t do it 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro is going to be very close as 97L misses the initial trough (again about 7-8 days out) and Atlantic ridging builds back in.