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August Banter 2025


George BM
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10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve got a senior and sophomore now. Crazy how time flies.

 

6 hours ago, mappy said:

7th grader here, she turns 13 in December and I feel older every day

 

5 hours ago, H2O said:

Dude. I’ve got a 23 yr old, a freshman in college and senior in HS. The last two were in diapers when I started reading weather boards.  And now I’m :oldman:

 

22 minutes ago, MacChump said:

same...wtf

All y'all young whippersnappers LOL. My son is 34 this year. 

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starting to get reeeeaaaalllly bored.............

 

 

300
FXAK69 PAFG 262214
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKDT Tue Aug 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances will continue to keep the western half
of Alaska cool and wet through the end of the week. Localized
flooding throughout the Brooks Range will remain a concern for
the next few days as streams and rivers continue to rise as a
result of recent heavy rainfall. Meanwhile colder Arctic air will
move onto the North Slope bringing the first signs of winter
precipitation to parts of the Brooks Range and the Arctic Slope
through Thursday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Heavy rainfall will continue for the Dalton Highway summits and
  central Brooks Range through tonight with smaller rivers and
  streams potentially reaching flood stage.

- Risk of flooding along the Dalton Highway will continue between
  mile markers 140 and 240 through early Wednesday. Additional
  rain accumulations through Wednesday are forecasted to be
  between 1" and 3".

- Wind advisories are in effect for southerly winds gusting up to
  60 mph through Windy Pass, 50 to 55 mph through Isabel Pass, and
  around 50 mph in Delta Junction. The most likely time frame is
  between this afternoon and Tuesday night.

- Warmer temperatures and breaks in the cloud cover are possible
  Wednesday for Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Precipitation will continue for the Western Interior through
  Wednesday, with additional rainfall ranging between 0.5" and
  1.75". The heaviest amounts will be from Huslia, to McGrath, to
  Holy Cross.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Snow has begun to mix in with the rain. Minor accumulation are
  possible tonight and Wednesday at the higher elevations along
  the Brooks Range from Point Lay to Anaktuvuk Pass.

- A glaze up to 0.1" of ice is possible along Anaktuvuk Pass and
  the north side of the Brooks Range along the Dalton Hwy
  Corridor. This is expected to continue through Thursday
  morning.

- Chances for wintry precipitation will continue across the
  Brooks Range through the end of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The overall weather pattern has not changed much over the past 24
hours with a persistent upper trough extending down through the
Bering Sea with a dominant ridge over western Canada and SE
Alaska. This has kept the steering flow from the south and
southeast across central and western sections of the state
allowing for additional northward transport of moisture and
additional disturbances to help keep the soggy weather going. We
will watch a surface low track north from the YK Delta up to near
the Northwest Arctic coastline tonight and tomorrow. This should
help focus most of the rainfall over the west coast and portions
of the western interior with the central and eastern interior
taking a break from most of the rainfall for at least Wednesday.
The exception will be across the Central Brooks Range and Arctic
slope where leftover precipitation will encounter a brief Arctic
intrusion tonight and Wednesday resulting in a wintry mix of
precipitation.

Shortwave energy will begin to eject northeast out of the Bering
Thursday and Friday bringing another period of rain to central and
northern Alaska (however precipitation with this feature should
be less intense than what has occurred the past several days).

Saturday and Sunday should see a respite from recent storms as a
deepening low shapes up over the Bering (more on this is included
in the Extended Discussion below).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Persistent light to moderate rain the past few days continues to
keep fire weather concerns at a minimum across the region. Only
portions of Fortymile county and the upper Tanana Valley have
managed to escape the steady precipitation. However even in these
locations min RH values managed to stay around 40 percent the past
few days. Rainfall for the central and eastern interior will
taper off a bit Wednesday but should return with another passing
disturbance later in the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A river flood warning continues in effect for Slate Creek near
Coldfoot, Alaska. The creek crested at 20.78 feet at 5:00 AM
Tuesday and is expected to stay above flood stage tonight through
Wednesday morning.

In addition another flood warning was issued for the Dalton
Highway between mile markers 140 and 240. AKDOT 511 and public
reports indicated water over the highway while nearby gauges
continue to show rapid rises on nearby streams and creeks. This is
all due to between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in the area the past
24 hours. Additional rain is also expected in the area tonight
and early Wednesday.

Meanwhile the river flood watch for the tributaries of the Koyukuk
and Kobuk Rivers has been extended into Thursday afternoon as
additional rain continues across the south slopes of the Brooks
Range and the Upper Kobuk Valley. Rises along the main stem rivers
is also expected overnight tonight and into Thursday morning. Of
immediate concern will be the Koyukuk at Allakaket which will
likely be cresting Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some
minor flooding or low areas around Allakaket will be possible.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The focus turns back towards the Bering to begin the extended
period. By early Saturday models are highlighting a 980mb surface
low entering the southern Bering Sea with high pressure centered
over the Gulf of Alaska. As the low tracks northwards through the
Bering during the day, the gradient will strengthen allowing for
another round of strong southerly winds along the west coast. This
will be accompanied by the onset of additional precipitation over
the YK Delta Saturday evening which will spread northwards over
the Seward Peninsula and the western interior by Saturday night
and Sunday. Models are still having difficulty with resolving the
eventual fate of this low as far as track and strength are
concerned. While this has to potential to result in some coastal
flooding, confidence remains low with that regard for now.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A storm entering the southern Bering Sea will bring stronger
south winds to the YK Delta Coast beginning Saturday. This system
will be monitored for further impacts to the west coast of Alaska
over the next few days.
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On 7/31/2025 at 9:33 PM, George BM said:

Friday, August 15, 2025 3:28PM EDT

Okay. Here we go. Another record-breaking event. Thankfully this time this event will not result in us being thrown back into the stone age for weeks. This time we are looking at record breaking temperatures on the cold side w/ daytime highs well below our average lows for this time of year.

A strong cold front moved through the region this morning bringing along a band of heavy gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms. Clear sunny skies have moved in across the region from the northwest on strong cold and dry air advection. As a result, although the sun is back out, temperatures have remained steady or even further fallen by a few degrees F into the upper 60s. Temps will fall more rapidly as we go into the evening hours with mid/upper 50s commonplace by sunset. Temps will plummet into the 40s overnight and bottom out in the lower 40s in the metros by dawn. The northwestern suburbs will likely be into the upper 30s challenging or breaking some all-time record lows for August. Meanwhile temps will fall below freezing in the mountains near the western edge of the forecast area where a Freeze Warning is in effect. With winds still elevated around 10-20 mph or so windchills will be in the mid/upper 30s in the metros and as low as 30F or even the upper 20s at times in the northwestern suburbs. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will only rebound to the upper 50s/ low 60s owing to continued cold-air advection.

Those winds will die down Saturday night as the surface high settles in overhead. This will allow Sunday morning to feature the coldest temperatures since April with widespread monthly record lows. Temps will probably bottom out in the lower 40s again in the metros. But with decent radiational cooling conditions in place with the very dry airmass that will be in place, the suburbs may drop into the mid to perhaps low/mid 30s. Frost headlines will likely be needed for the northwestern suburbs on Sunday morning. Temps will rebound into the lower/mid 60s Sunday afternoon.

During the week temps will rebound to closer to average with upper 70s/low 80s by midweek with a southerly flow to the east of a trough over the Ohio Valley potentially ushering in tropical trouble out of the south with Erin which some models and ensembles depicting frightening rain and wind scenarios which I’d rather not think about right now. Nope, I’m ending the discussion here.

Hey GBM September's right around the corner - Its high time for a massive hurricane yarn on Sep 1.

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