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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


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2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

summer is effectively over the odds of any long stretch of either hot or very warm humid weather 3 days or more is gone..

We'll probably see more heat but with lower sun angle?shorter days it never feels as bad as June/July heat...we've lost close to 2 hrs of daylight since 6/21

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68 / 51.   Overall nice stretch of dry weather the next week.  Only chance of rain remains Wed late / Thu but seems to be dry.   Temps near / below normal the next week  Upper 70s / low 80s for the most part of NYC/NJ/LI.  Trough remains through the first / Second before some moderation towards warmer by the 3/rd / 4th and beyond.   

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We'll probably see more heat but with lower sun angle?shorter days it never feels as bad as June/July heat...we've lost close to 2 hrs of daylight since 6/21

You'd be surprised. I remember the mid 90s in October 2019 and it felt hot as hell despite the lower Sun. 

The Sun angle on the September Equinox at solar noon is about the same as the June solstice Sun angle at 4PM. 

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1948)
NYC: 103 (1948)
LGA: 103 (1948)
JFK: 100 (1948)


Lows:

EWR: 51 (1942)
NYC: 53 (1887)
LGA: 53 (1940)
JFK: 53 (1963)


Historical:

 

 

1591: Roanoke Island was again struck by a severe storm. The winds blew out of the northeast, directly into the harbor. Waves crashed on a sandbar and currents in the area became quite dangerous. (Ref. for the storm of 1591)

1635: New England on August 25th and 26th: The Great Colonial Hurricane strikes the New England coast. Rev. Increase Mather writes: "...no storm more dismal than the great hurricane." Many shipwrecks and several near-disasters occur during the storm, one of which would give birth to a favorite New England legend surrounding Thacher's Island. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1827: A hurricane originating near the Windward Islands struck Cape Hatteras, before moving northeast offshore Virginia, Maryland, and New England. Initial reports from Wilmington, NC indicated that this was a storm of great intensity as it passed by to their east. One report gave an account of waves over the top of garden fences some 6900 feet from the beach. Other reports indicated storm tides greater than 10 feet above normal levels. The western end of Pamlico Sound, reported water levels 12 to 15 feet above ordinary levels. The following first hand account of this storm in Virginia was from the Tazewell Papers in the Virginia State Library. Henry Tazewell wrote to his brother John in New York and described the storm as such.
"....A severe gale which continued for three days changed the climate here entirely and persons are clad generally in full suits of winter clothing; the same gale has done great injury to shipping and to present crops. The fodder is worthless and the corn in many places is much broken by the wind."
The gale "...commenced in the forenoon of August 25th and continued to increase until the evening, when it blew tremendously. About midnight, the rain ceased and the gales somewhat abated, though it continued to blow fresh all day on the 26th." At the height of the storm, winds unroofed a two story building on Talbot street in Norfolk and commenced to blow away the second floor of the building. Livestock was swept away in large numbers. Corn was leveled at Belleview...a mill dam was torn to shreds and the bridge over it was swept away. (Ref. for St. Kitts Hurricane)
 

1864 - A train running from Cincinnati to Chicago was derailed by a tornado in Dearborn County, Indiana, or 75 miles southeast of Indianapolis. Two passenger cars were lifted from the tracks and dropped in a ravine which injured 30 people.

1883 - Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. (David Ludlum)

1895: Snow flurries affected parts of Pennsylvania, New York and New England with snow observed as far south as Hartford, CT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1910: Peoria, IL registered a low temperature of 41°. This established a record for the month of August, although it has been tied twice since then. Daily low temperatures were established at Lincoln, IL with 37°; Decatur, IL: 44°; and Champaign, IL: 46°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1915: Severe cold and killing frosts across Minnesota with 23 degrees at Roseau, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1924: A hurricane brushed New England with 80 mph winds reported at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. The pressure at Nantucket Island dropped to 28.71 inches of mercury. Boston, Massachusetts recorded its lowest pressure 29.26 inches of mercury for the month of August. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1940: Boston, Massachusetts had its lowest August temperature of 46 °F. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1949 - A hurricane made landfall at Delray Beach. Winds reached 153 mph at the Jupiter Lighthouse before the anemometer failed. The hurricane caused 45 million dollars damage to crops, and also caught the Georgia and South Carolina coast resulting in another two million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1965 - Late night severe thunderstorms associated with an unusually strong late summer cold front produced 100 mph winds straight line winds in the Chicago area and northwest Indiana. In Lake County IND, high winds derailed a train near Crown Point, and left a canoe suspended among telephone lines. Two nights later the temperature at Midway Airport in Chicago dipped to 43 degrees, establishing a record for the month of August. (Storm Data) (Hugh Crowther)

1976 - A weak tornado touched down briefly in the Hockley Hills near Kiana, AK, about 29 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms drenched northern Illinois during the morning and afternoon hours pushing August rainfall totals for Chicago, Moline and Peoria to new all-time highs for any month of the year. By the end of August, Chicago had received 17.10 inches of rain, which easily surpassed the previous record of 14.17 inches established in September 1961. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A dozen cities in Texas, Colorado and California reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 100 degrees at Pueblo CO, 106 degrees at Wichita Falls TX, and 109 degrees at Redding CA. Afternoon thunderstorms in Utah deluged the town of Beaver with more than an inch of rain in twenty minutes. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Anchorage, AK, was soaked with a steady rain, and the 24 hour total of 4.12 inches smashed their previous 24 hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. It also pushed their rainfall total for the month past their previous record for August. (The National Weather Summary)

1993: Butte, MT picked up 5 inches of heavy, early season snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1996: Norfolk, VA lightning seriously injured two boys who were sitting at a picnic table beneath a tree. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

2002: No tornado damage, just high straight-line winds. Severe thunderstorm winds to 87 mph overturned 15 empty railroad cars in Wallace, KS; each had a posted weight of 15 tons. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) A severe thunderstorm produced large and damaging hail at Cheyenne, WY during the evening. Hail up to the size of baseballs fell over especially the central and west parts of town producing widespread damage, particularly to roofs and automobiles. Total damage estimates exceeded $30 million dollars. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2003: A derecho associated with a cluster of severe thunderstorms affected parts of Michigan and states eastward to Washington, DC. Strong winds left hundreds of thousands of customers without power, just weeks after the Great Blackout of 2003. The Great Blackout of 2003 was Thursday, August 14, 2003, just before 4:10 p.m. EDT. At the time, it was the second most widespread blackout in history, after the 1999 Southern Brazil blackout. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: Katrina made landfall in southern Florida on August 26 as a Cat 1 hurricane. It crossed Florida and headed through the Gulf of Mexico, growing in strength to a Cat 5 while still offshore of Louisiana on August 28, with top wind speeds of 175 MPH and a central pressure of 902 MB. Fortunately before making landfall on August 29 in Eastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi it diminished somewhat in intensity to a Cat 3. There were 1833 deaths and $81 billion in damages, the costliest hurricane ever in the United States. Ref. (Weather Underground Hurricane History Archives - Katrina)
Also see -- Complete History of Hurricane Katrina 43 pages Katrina made landfall again see the date - (August 29, 2005) for more information.

2007: The remnants of Hurricane Dean produced thunderstorms and heavy rain all over the San Diego Metro area in southern California. Two inches of rain fell in just 90 minutes at Escondido during the morning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2017: Harvey's intensification phase stalled slightly overnight from August 24–25, however Harvey soon resumed strengthening and became a Category 4 hurricane late on August 25. Hours later, Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas, at peak intensity. The strongest winds were focused just northeast of Corpus Christi, around Rockport. The highest reading of 132 mph was registered at Port Aransas. Harvey, a tropical storm by Tuesday morning with its eye hovering over the Gulf of Mexico, could still dump up to 15 inches of rain on portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, including the saturated Houston area, where thousands have been rescued and many more still wait for help. The greatest problem would be the record rainfall amounts. (15 inches of rain and more to come) (Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas)(Satellite-before-Landfall on the 24-25 landfall near Rockport, Texas)

2020: Wednesday- August 26 -2020 Nearing landfall, Laura reached peak intensity as a category 4 hurricane early Wednesday evening as a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that maximum sustained winds had increased to 150 mph as the center of Laura was approximately 120 miles to the south of Lake Charles, LA. as the central minimum pressure fell to 937 mb ( inches of mercury). At that time, Laura's outer bands had begun moving onshore along the Louisiana coast, accompanied by strong winds, steady rain and several possible tornadoes. Hurricane Laura made landfall along the Louisiana Gulf Coast near Cameron, LA just after midnight on

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We should finish with a slightly cooler August against the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. But since we have been warming so fast, it would just be average for recent 30 year climate eras.

Anytime we get a cooler month in recent years, we eventually see a warm departure of a greater magnitude than the cooler month was. This was the case with the spring warmth after the slightly cooler winter. Also last fall with some cooler conditions early on before we experienced record warmth by October and early November. 
 

IMG_4520.png.758b406284bc4c5451e68afb8e20bdb9.png

 

This 100%. We never get cool downs "for free". It's always one slightly below normal month followed by 2-3 blowtorches right after. I'm expecting a torchy fall.

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31 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You'd be surprised. I remember the mid 90s in October 2019 and it felt hot as hell despite the lower Sun. 

The Sun angle on the September Equinox at solar noon is about the same as the June solstice Sun angle at 4PM. 

 

Yea I think this stuff about low sun angle heat not feeling bad is pure cope. Hot is hot, and anything above 85 is way too hot. I'd be surprised if we dont roast come mid September as payback for this nice August

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2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Yea I think this stuff about low sun angle heat not feeling bad is pure cope. Hot is hot, and anything above 85 is way too hot. I'd be surprised if we dont roast come mid September as payback for this nice August

By Setember 10th the sun angle is equal to March 31st..it might get up to 90 but it doesn't feel the same as  June to mid August

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8 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

By Setember 10th the sun angle is equal to March 31st..it might get up to 90 but it doesn't feel the same as  June to mid August

I wrote farther up how noontime on the September Equinox is the same angle as the June solstice at 4PM. 

90s at 4PM on June 21st feel plenty hot haha

 

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i remember in the 1980's when a cold front came through temp fell into the 50's one afternoon in nyc in september that would be impossible today.. 

We got an early hint how cold the 1976-1977 winter was going to be with the record cold outbreak at the end of August 1976. 
 

Data for August 31, 1976 through August 31, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38
CT DANBURY COOP 38
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39
NY CARMEL COOP 39
CT WESTBROOK COOP 39
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 40
NY SCARSDALE COOP 40
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 40
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 40
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 41
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 41
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 42
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 42
NY SUFFERN COOP 42
NY WEST POINT COOP 42
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43
NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 43
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 43
CT GROTON COOP 43
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 44
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 45
NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 45
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 45
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46
NY MINEOLA COOP 46
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 46
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 47
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 47
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 48
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 50
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 50
NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 50
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 52
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 52
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 52
NY MONTAUK COOP 52
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 53
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 53
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 54


 

Data for August 31, 1976 through August 31, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 34
PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 35
NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 36
NJ NEWTON COOP 36
PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37
NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 37
NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37
NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 38
NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 38
PA PERKASIE COOP 39
PA PALMERTON COOP 39
NJ CHATSWORTH COOP 39
PA GEORGE SCHOOL COOP 39
MD CENTREVILLE COOP 40
NJ BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 40
NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 40
NJ PEMBERTON COOP 40
NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 40
NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 40
PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 41
NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41
NJ LAMBERTVILLE COOP 41
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 41
NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 41
DE GEORGETOWN 5 SW COOP 42
MD MILLINGTON 1 SE COOP 42
PA WEST CHESTER 2 NW COOP 42
PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 42
PA READING 4 NNW COOP 42
NJ WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 42
NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 42
NJ BELVIDERE COOP 42
NJ TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 42
NJ LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 42
DE MIDDLETOWN 3 E COOP 43
PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 43
PA MORGANTOWN COOP 43
PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 43
NJ CHERRY HILL COOP 43
NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 43
NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43
DE MILFORD 2 SE COOP 44
NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 44
NJ WEST WHARTON COOP 44
MD EASTON COOP 45
DE BRIDGEVILLE 1 NW COOP 45
MD DENTON 2 E COOP 45
DE NEWARK AG FARM COOP 45
PA WEST GROVE 1 SE COOP 45
DE WILMINGTON PORTER RES COOP 46
NJ SHILOH COOP 46
NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 46
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 46
NJ GLASSBORO 2 NE COOP 47
PA WILLOW GROVE NAS WBAN 47
MD CHESTERTOWN COOP 48
NJ AUDUBON COOP 48
NJ TRENTON WBAN 48
MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 49
DE DOVER COOP 49
MD PRESTON 1 S COOP 49
DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 50
PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 50
PA NORRISTOWN COOP 50
NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 50
NJ SPLIT ROCK POND COOP 50
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 51
DE LEWES COOP 53
PA DREXEL UNIV COOP 53
PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 54
PA PHILADELPHIA 23D & MARKET COOP 54
PA PHILADELPHIA WBAN 56
PA PHILADELPHIA WSFO COOP 56
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13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ne (3).png

Would be nice to ease the developing dry conditions for the OP to score a win here. But the EPS is still more suppressed. I hope they move toward the OP over the next several runs. 
 

IMG_4529.gif.4b667069b69970500ed55c1d1c24fdff.gif
 

IMG_4530.thumb.png.a573a17b0d50093e2713bc4ff5fce444.png

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