August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

A warm fall to me is like a cool rainy summer to you. 

I want the crispness of fall. 

I love that-- just in November lol.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The W/N Pacific warm piss pool of disaster is alive and well. Until that goes away my hopes for winter are about zilch (maybe some ridiculous combination of other factors can overcome the Pacific jet here and there but we've seen so many times how it all gets literally blown away, torn apart, etc and we get suppressed crap or a cutter or way too late bloomer). Even the strong 23-24 Nino couldn't really overcome it, it just added STJ juice to the insane Pac jet. 

September is by far the best weather month here. Hopefully we get a synoptic system or two to give us all some needed rain and otherwise warm and dry weather. Today's just glorious. 

Today's the best weather we have had in a long time.

No more of that smoke haze crap either.

I hope September is like today was, with a rain event maybe once or twice a week at most.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs

 

EWR: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 84
ISP: 84
PHL: 84
BLM: 83
NYC: 83
TTN: 83
JFK: 82 * missing intra hour highs yet again
ACY: 80

 

[donsutherland1]

Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (Central Park, JFK, LaGuardia), Newark, and White Plains had high temperatures that were within 3° of one another for the 4th consecutive day. The last time there were four consecutive days with such a narrow range was December 23-26, 2022.

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

When is the average last 90 degree day?

 

 

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that. 

For JFK, it is August 23rd (1991-2020 baseline).

[nycwinter]

as you get older you appreciate mild winters...

[IrishRob17]

32 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

as you get older you appreciate mild winters...

Do you appreciate them or they just don't bother you as much as when you were younger?

[donsutherland1]

Summer 2025 to date for Central Park:

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024

Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), 

Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th)

Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), 

Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), 

Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) 

Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th)

Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), 

Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), 

Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd)

_____________

^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. 

Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30.

(for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2)

There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Do you appreciate them or they just don't bother you as much as when you were younger?

Maybe he appreciates lower heating costs

or it could also be that we're coming to the realization that we've already experienced the coldest and snowiest winters we are likely to ever experience in our entire lives and anything from this point on is gravy.

For me it's both 1 and 2, but I will say I still get really upset when a big snowstorm busts, a la March 2001 or January 2008.  It's much easier to handle a mild winter with no snowfall threats at all than a mediocre winter with predicted snowstorms that don't pan out.

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

 

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024

Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), 

Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th)

Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), 

Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), 

Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) 

Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th)

Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), 

Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), 

Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd)

_____________

^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. 

Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30.

(for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2)

There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S. 

 

1947-48 was our snowiest season on record for many decades.

 

[bluewave]

Really comfortable pattern here the rest of the month as the next heatwave will miss well to out north with record mid 90s staying up near the tundra. This should be one of the more extreme late season over the top warm ups we have seen. Unfortunately, it will promote more drought and wildfire activity up in Canada. 
 

 

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really comfortable pattern here the rest of the month as the next heatwave will miss well to out north with record mid 90s staying up near the tundra. This should be one of the more extreme late season over the top warm ups we have seen. Unfortunately, it will promote more drought and wildfire activity up in Canada. 
 

 

 

Good morning BW. Is this anomalous heat over a permafrost area? Could repeated outbreaks like this cause a a more extensive release of methane gas? I remember in my younger days reading about snows in the Dakotas during September. The white blanket, north to south, may now be marching to quite a different drummer. Thank you, Don, Walt,Tip, S19 and many others for your posts. They help to fill my extensive void in the relevant knowledge department. As always ….….

 

[SACRUS]

 

76 / 55 another gorgeous day on tap mid - upper 80s in the hottest areas.  Some clouds tomorrow but dont think its completely cloudy with the mainly dry front.   Trough moves in and depsite the trough looks like a relatively nice week / dry and slightly below normal highs and cooler lows.   Moderation towards normal by the 31 and warmer overall beyond there not a way below or above - near normal.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1989)
NYC: 92 (1916)
LGA: 92 (1996)
JFK: 91 (1978)


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1982)
NYC: 51 (1923)
LGA: 56 (1952)
JFK: 57 (1994)


Historical:

 

1683: A hurricane which made landfall in Virginia and moved from Virginia to Massachusetts. Extensive damage was done in Rhode Island, and the torrential rains from the hurricane caused the Connecticut River to rise 26 feet above its usual level causing a tremendous flood in the Connecticut Valley.(Ref. Hurricane of 1683)
 

 

1724 - An event is known as the "Great Gust of 1724" occurred on this day. Almost all tobacco and much of the corn crops were destroyed by this violent tropical storm, which struck the Chesapeake Bay. Intense floods of rain and a huge gust of wind were seen on the James River. Some homes were wrecked, and several vessels were driven ashore. The storm was likely followed by a second hurricane just five days later causing rain for many straight days that caused the Virginia floods of 1724.

 

1806: A hurricane of great size and destructive power raged along the Atlantic coast from the 21st to the 24th. As the slow moving storm gained forward speed, shipping suffered severely. The coastal ship "Rose in Bloom" capsized during the morning off Barnegat Inlet, NJ, with the loss of 21 of the 49 persons on board. This disaster received wide national publicity. Further north, Cape Cod, MA received 18 inches of rain, which ruined crops. The storm also caused major shipping losses.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1851: The Great Middle Florida Hurricane of 1851 struck the area near Apalachicola and St. Marks. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1906 - Thunderstorms deluged Kansas City, MO, with six inches of rain during the early morning, including nearly three inches in thirty minutes. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1921 - Denver, CO, was drenched with 2.20 inches of rain in one hour, a record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

 

1933: A hurricane made landfall near Nags Head, North Carolina and tracked up the Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane moved over Norfolk, Virginia, and Washington, DC. A seven-foot tide flooded businesses in Norfolk, Virginia. Described in the American Meteorological Society's August 1933 weather review as "one of the most severe storms that have ever visited the Middle Atlantic Coast."

1933 - The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane moved over Norfolk VA and Washington D.C. A tide seven feet above normal flooded businesses in Norfolk, and damage in Maryland was estimated at seventeen million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1939: A long dry spell began in central Illinois. This was the first of 37 consecutive days where no measurable rain fell at Springfield, a record dry spell for the city. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1955: Hail in Houston County, with piles to a foot deep at Rushmore, SD. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1963: Project Stormfury was armed and ready as Hurricane Beulah moved across the Atlantic Ocean north of Puerto Rico. An armada of planes carried out the seeding and monitored the results of the experiment. On the 23rd, Beulah did not really meet the criteria for seeding. On the following day, the storm met the criteria of having a well-formed eyewall and the seeding appeared to be successful as the eyewall disintegrated. No other hurricanes would be seeded until 1969 because of a lack of good targets. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1966: A bolt of lightning struck and killed a surfer who had just come out of the water while surfing at Surf City, NJ. The surfer was standing at the ocean's edge when lightning struck. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1970 - Dry thunderstorms ignited more than one hundred fires in the Wenatchee and Okanogan National Forests of Washington State. Hot, dry, and windy weather spread the fires, a few of which burned out of control through the end of the month. More than 100,000 acres burned. (The Weather Channel)

 

1974: Brown's Summit, NC -- a 9-year-old girl was killed by lightning. Wawarsing, NY-- A 15-year-old girl was killed by lightning and five others were injured while camping during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1987 - A cold front brought autumn-like weather to the Northern and Central Plains Region. Afternoon highs were in the 50s and 60s across parts of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska that just two days earlier were in the 90s or above 100 degrees. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced hail an inch in diameter, wind gusts to 64 mph, and 2.62 inches of rain at Tucson AZ resulting in three million dollars damage. Cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Hartford CT reported a record low of 42 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain with flash flooding in West Virginia. Pickens, WV, reported 4.80 inches of rain in 24 hours. Evening thunderstorms in Mississippi deluged Alta Woods with 4.25 inches of rain in less than an hour. Thunderstorms also produced heavy rain in southeastern Kentucky, and flooding was reported along Big Creek and along Stinking Creek. The Stinking Creek volunteer fire department reported water levels 12 to 14 feet above bankfull. Fort Worth TX hit the 100 degree mark for the first time all year. Strong winds ushering cool air into northwest Utah gusted to 70 mph, raising clouds of dust in the salt flats. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992 - While South Florida residents were preparing for Hurricane Andrew, folks in western Montana were dealing with early season snowfall. Some snowfall amounts include 8.3� in Great Falls, 6.2 in Helena, and 5.1 in Cut Bank. This snowfall is the first significant snowfall on record in western Montana in August.

1998: Massive flooding caused by heavy rains from the remnants of dying Tropical Storm Charley struck the town of Del Rio, TX. 18 inches of rain fell from Sunday night through Monday morning. At least 13 people died in the flooding in Texas and Mexico. The town of Del Rio had been parched by seemingly endless drought before the rains started had had less than 3 inches of rainfall for the first seven months of the year. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: In Sanford, ME, a man playing a video game in the American Legion building was injured when a lightning strike arced through all the video machines. He suffered chest pains/hearing problems. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2001: Scattered strong thunderstorms developed during the evening hours of the 22nd in west central Illinois, continuing into the early morning hours of the 23rd. Excessive rain fell during this period, and produced widespread urban and street flooding. Cooperative observer rainfall observations ranged from 6.30 to 8 inches in Hancock County from this event. In Schuyler County, a total of 8.67 inches of rain fell in Brooklyn. On the LaMoine River, levels rose up to 16 feet in only 4 to 6 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005 - Hurricane Katrina formed from Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas. Katrina would become the costliest ($81.2 billion) and one of the most deadly hurricanes (1,836 lives) in U.S. history.

2011: Earthquake today at 1351 that lasted 30 seconds that was rated a 5.8 magnitude and the epicenter was near Mineral, Virginia. The quake was the biggest in Virginia in 114 years since May 5, 1897, when a 5.8 tremor began in Giles County and was felt in 12 states. The Charleston, SC earthquake of August 31, 1886 was a powerful intraplate earthquake the strongest earthquake recorded in South Carolina. The shaking occurred at 9:50 p.m. and lasted just under a minute and is estimated to have been between 6.6 and 7.3 on the Richter scale. The earthquake caused severe damage in Charleston, South Carolina, damaging 2,000 buildings and causing $6 million worth in damages (over $141 million in 2009 dollars), while in the whole city the buildings were only valued at approximately $24 million. Between 60 and 110 lives were lost. After the 1811 and 1812 quakes in New Madrid, Missouri, the Charleston SC earthquake is the most powerful and damaging quake to hit the southeastern United States. Three Main Shocks of the Missouri Earthquake, December 16, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.7, January 23, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.5, February 7, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.7. Also in 1755, a quake with around a 6.0 magnitude struck off the coast of Massachusetts.

[SACRUS]

 

this past week's cool - wonder if we'll see departures equal to these or if this period will be cooler overall than this coming week.

EWR:
8/18: 78/ 66 (-4)
8/19: 76 / 68 (-4)
8/20: 71 / 60 (-10) 0.53
8/21: 75 / 60 (-8)  0.14
8/22: 85 / 60 (-3)
 

[SACRUS]

 

AK : Hot fun in the summertime 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Departures through 8/22 - two thirds of Aug

Likely 2-3 above normal today/sunday and maybe monday, before below normal stretch Tue - Soundly putting all between 1.5-3 below normal for the month.

 

EWR: -1.4
NYC: -1.8
JFK: -1.9
LGA: -2.6 

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

this past week's cool - wonder if we'll see departures equal to these or if this period will be cooler overall than this week.

EWR:
8/18: 78/ 66 (-4)
8/19: 76 / 68 (-4)
8/20: 71 / 60 (-10) 0.53
8/21: 75 / 60 (-8)  0.14
8/22: 85 / 60 (-3)
 

This week's cooldown looks to be just slightly below average now. Maybe a -5 on Wednesday with cool lows

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

This week's cooldown looks to be just slightly below average now. Maybe a -5 on Wednesday with cool lows

Yeah the big deal next week will be the very low humidity rather than the temps. Starting on Tuesday, a very long stretch with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50. That with high temps near 80 will be absolutely perfect summer weather. 

[WE GOT HIM]

59 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the big deal next week will be the very low humidity rather than the temps. Starting on Tuesday, a very long stretch with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50. That with high temps near 80 will be absolutely perfect summer weather. 

I'm gonna do some painting upstate.

[anthonymm]

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's possible, although the tendency seems to be for the heat to dump in the West.

With our  bad luck, this means we'll get a mild winter when the pattern reverses lol

 

Whatever needs to happen to give us a mild/snowless winter is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

[anthonymm]

18 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The W/N Pacific warm piss pool of disaster is alive and well. Until that goes away my hopes for winter are about zilch (maybe some ridiculous combination of other factors can overcome the Pacific jet here and there but we've seen so many times how it all gets literally blown away, torn apart, etc and we get suppressed crap or a cutter or way too late bloomer). Even the strong 23-24 Nino couldn't really overcome it, it just added STJ juice to the insane Pac jet. 

September is by far the best weather month here. Hopefully we get a synoptic system or two to give us all some needed rain and otherwise warm and dry weather. Today's just glorious. 

This. I think we're cooked until the western pac stops boiling. Has there been a single extreme -pdo type winter that ended up good for us??

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 54 great day

[LoboLeader1]

85/50 here.