August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

A warm fall to me is like a cool rainy summer to you. 

I want the crispness of fall. 

I love that-- just in November lol.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The W/N Pacific warm piss pool of disaster is alive and well. Until that goes away my hopes for winter are about zilch (maybe some ridiculous combination of other factors can overcome the Pacific jet here and there but we've seen so many times how it all gets literally blown away, torn apart, etc and we get suppressed crap or a cutter or way too late bloomer). Even the strong 23-24 Nino couldn't really overcome it, it just added STJ juice to the insane Pac jet. 

September is by far the best weather month here. Hopefully we get a synoptic system or two to give us all some needed rain and otherwise warm and dry weather. Today's just glorious. 

Today's the best weather we have had in a long time.

No more of that smoke haze crap either.

I hope September is like today was, with a rain event maybe once or twice a week at most.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs

 

EWR: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 84
ISP: 84
PHL: 84
BLM: 83
NYC: 83
TTN: 83
JFK: 82 * missing intra hour highs yet again
ACY: 80

 

[donsutherland1]

Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (Central Park, JFK, LaGuardia), Newark, and White Plains had high temperatures that were within 3° of one another for the 4th consecutive day. The last time there were four consecutive days with such a narrow range was December 23-26, 2022.

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

When is the average last 90 degree day?

 

 

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that. 

For JFK, it is August 23rd (1991-2020 baseline).

[nycwinter]

as you get older you appreciate mild winters...

[IrishRob17]

32 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

as you get older you appreciate mild winters...

Do you appreciate them or they just don't bother you as much as when you were younger?

[donsutherland1]

Summer 2025 to date for Central Park:

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024

Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), 

Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th)

Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), 

Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), 

Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) 

Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th)

Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), 

Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), 

Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd)

_____________

^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. 

Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30.

(for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2)

There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Do you appreciate them or they just don't bother you as much as when you were younger?

Maybe he appreciates lower heating costs

or it could also be that we're coming to the realization that we've already experienced the coldest and snowiest winters we are likely to ever experience in our entire lives and anything from this point on is gravy.

For me it's both 1 and 2, but I will say I still get really upset when a big snowstorm busts, a la March 2001 or January 2008.  It's much easier to handle a mild winter with no snowfall threats at all than a mediocre winter with predicted snowstorms that don't pan out.

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

 

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024

Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), 

Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th)

Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), 

Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), 

Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) 

Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th)

Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), 

Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), 

Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd)

_____________

^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. 

Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30.

(for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2)

There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S. 

 

1947-48 was our snowiest season on record for many decades.