August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Sure but it could've hit somewhere along the eastern seaboard and we could've had a strong hurricane up here

Yea that would have been truly awful, even if it had weakened down to a Cat 2 or something and hit the outer banks, like that one storm did a few years ago after devastating the Bahamas as a Cat 5.  That was progged to hit Florida at one point.

[winterwarlock]

85/75/90

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

85/75/90

has the sun come out yet by you-- it's playing hide and seek today lol

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Start a thread in this forum.  Call it local impacts of climate change.  I got no problem with that.  It’s a great tropic.  I’d read it so would everyone else.
 

Tom Dick and Harry type daily weather events discussion belongs here. Rain next week, dry pattern this month, ice storm, hurricane, that sort of thing.  All that stuff should be here.  Septembers getting warmer over the years, warm anomalies increasing in February over the years should be there.  That way you can be quantitate and say, septembers are getting warmer and heres the data.  Example:  If it’s modeled to be 89 on September 12, that is a pattern development for the September thread.  You don’t want to say it’s hot on September 12 because of climate change if it turns out it’s 41 on September 14th.  Wouldn’t want to say climate change has reversed in 2 days.  This is conflating 2 dynamics.  
 

All good my friend. 

These weather forums have always existed in order to provide context to the current weather being experienced and the forecasts based on these current initialized conditions.

Don and Uncle started adding background on the other forum. Reading their excellent posts was one of the reasons that I joined. While it’s nice having everyone list their current conditions, adding context to how it fits in to what is usual or unusual has always been a tradition. This is the main reason that weather records exist in the first place.

But these frequent climate shifts since the late 1970s to warmer have been changing the baseline. So we are no longer in the stable and cooler climate prior to the 1980s. Understanding this is essential since it sets the new parameters of what types of events are possible for each warmer climate background state. We can’t accurately make forecasts based on these older assumptions which applied to the cooler climate eras. Plus the warming introduces new biases into the model forecasts which we need to discuss for accurate forecasts.

If for some reason things were different and we were slipping into a new ice age, I doubt that the posters such as yourself would complain that too much attention was being given to how much colder our climate is becoming. So my guess is that you would be fine with discussing that in these threads and not want to move the discussion into a separate coming ice age and global cooling thread. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These weather forums have always existed in order to provide context to the current weather being experienced and the forecasts based on these current initialized conditions.

Don and Uncle started adding background on the other forum. Reading their excellent posts was one of the reasons that I joined. While it’s nice having everyone list their current conditions, adding context to how it fits in to what is usual or unusual has always been a tradition. This is the main reason that weather records exist in the first place.

But these frequent climate shifts since the late 1970s to warmer have been changing the baseline. So we are no longer in the stable and cooler climate prior to the 1980s. Understanding this is essential since it sets the new parameters of what types of events are possible for each warmer climate background state. We can’t accurately make forecasts based on these older assumptions which applied to the cooler climate eras. Plus the warming introduces new biases into the model forecasts which we need to discuss for accurate forecasts.

If for some reason things were different and we were slipping into a new ice age, I doubt that the posters such as yourself would complain that too much attention was being given to how much colder our climate is becoming. So my guess is that you would be fine with discussing that in these threads and not want to move the discussion into a separate coming ice age and global cooling thread. 

It's also interesting talking about previous historic records (both hot and cold, both snowy and rainy) and instrument relocations, it gives a lot of context to what's going on.

 

[winterwarlock]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

has the sun come out yet by you-- it's playing hide and seek today lol

 

Peek a boo but most cloudy

 

Heatwave in jeopardy

[Sundog]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately, I'm not in Queens, I'm in Nassau County so there's no way to do that here, do you know if they are planning on expanding the micronet to Nassau County?

Lots of us exceeded JFK's 102 degrees in late June.  I remember the sea breeze made it there and then got stuck there before backing off lol.

 

They have no stations in eastern Queens anyway, Queens College is the farthest east they get and that's barely east of the Van Wyck. 

You basically have nothing in the eastern half of the borough that faces Nassau.

And technically it was part of the state Mesonet. And the sensor is on the roof of a building 50 feet up. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

They have no stations in eastern Queens anyway, Queens College is the farthest east they get and that's barely east of the Van Wyck. 

You basically have nothing in the eastern half of the borough that faces Nassau.

And technically it was part of the state Mesonet. And the sensor is on the roof of a building 50 feet up. 

ugh the state Mesonet is too coarse, they have one station in Nassau County and it's in Wantagh and I might as well use FRG lol.  I'm like 15 miles west of there.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

If we had this kind of thing in summers like 1993, 2010, etc, do you think they would have recorded even more 90/95/100 degree days?

 

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	59
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	54
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	52
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	51
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	50
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	48
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	46
NY	BRONX	COOP	45
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	41
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	40
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	37
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	35
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	34
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	33
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	32
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	31
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	27
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	26
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	25
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	24
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	24
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	22
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	22

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	21
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	20
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	18
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	18
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	17
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	16
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	14
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	12
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	12
NY	BRONX	COOP	11
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	11
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
CT	DANBURY	COOP	10

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	4
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	3
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CT	DANBURY	COOP	3

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Peek a boo but most cloudy

 

Heatwave in jeopardy

 

Gonna be close - clouds meandering in CNJ but plenty of breaks.

 

made it to 86 here.  tomorrow next shot at 90 and then we'll see if next Sat/Sun can get sneaky 90s in the hot areas, enhanced if the week continues dry.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Vety popup isolated

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don could you run the numbers for 1949 and 1944 at NYC too with this new weighting system you're using? They seem like they are very close (1949 is 9th and 1944 is 10th), if you used your new weighting system would 1944 leapfrog over 1949?

August 1944 had so many heat records that still stand to this day.

It would be interesting to see how summers rank in terms of record highs and let's bring September into the mix.  For either NYC or JFK (or both) can summers be ranked in terms of most record daily high temperatures in JJAS?

 

Here it is:

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Gonna be close - clouds meandering in CNJ but plenty of breaks.

 

made it to 86 here.  tomorrow next shot at 90 and then we'll see if next Sat/Sun can get sneaky 90s in the hot areas, enhanced if the week continues dry.

Very impressive all or nothing rainfall pattern this summer from 2-14 inches. A few localized well above average readings. While many areas are only near normal to record dry over the period. The added heat really dried things out more than would be the case with a much cooler summer. So even areas that are near average are showing drier vegetation and soil moisture. 
 

Data for June 1, 2025 through August 16, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	14.40
NY	BEACON 4.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	14.29
NJ	WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW	CoCoRaHS	12.70
NJ	WESTFIELD 0.6 NE	CoCoRaHS	12.24
CT	HERITAGE VILLAGE 0.2 E	CoCoRaHS	11.93
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	11.75
NJ	SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	11.65
NJ	CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	11.51
NJ	CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE	CoCoRaHS	11.50
NY	SEAFORD 0.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	11.32
NY	LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE	CoCoRaHS	11.25
NJ	CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW	CoCoRaHS	11.19
NY	WARWICK 3.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS	11.17
NJ	LINDEN 2.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	10.43
NY	PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE	CoCoRaHS	10.33
NJ	CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE	CoCoRaHS	10.32
NY	SPRING VALLEY 1.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.32
NY	NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W	CoCoRaHS	10.14
NJ	MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	10.13
NJ	MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.09
NY	ARMONK 0.3 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.01
NY	THORNWOOD 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	9.99
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	9.81
NY	WARWICK 3.9 W	CoCoRaHS	9.62
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	9.47
NY	NELSONVILLE 0.3 S	CoCoRaHS	9.31
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	9.20
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	9.05
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	8.95
NY	CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	8.75
NJ	LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE	CoCoRaHS	8.69
NY	PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	8.64
NJ	MONTVALE 1.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	8.63
NY	SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	8.59
CT	WATERBURY 1.3 WNW	CoCoRaHS	8.51
CT	BETHEL 3.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	8.47
CT	BETHEL 0.5 E	CoCoRaHS	8.42
CT	STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	8.37
NJ	WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	8.36
NJ	RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	8.22
NY	GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW	CoCoRaHS	8.18
NY	SAYVILLE	CoCoRaHS	8.08
NJ	MONTCLAIR 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	8.07
NY	MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE	CoCoRaHS	8.05
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	8.03
NY	BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	7.88
CT	DANBURY	COOP	7.82
NJ	KEARNY 1.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	7.74
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	7.74
NJ	CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W	CoCoRaHS	7.71
NY	SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	7.71
NY	PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	7.68
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	7.67
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7.67
NY	GARRISON 1.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	7.66
NY	BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE	CoCoRaHS	7.60
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	7.59
NY	BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.59
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	7.58
NJ	PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS	7.56
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	7.54
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	7.50
CT	PUTNAM LAKE	COOP	7.45
NY	STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N	CoCoRaHS	7.44
NY	ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W	CoCoRaHS	7.43
NJ	WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	7.40
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	7.40
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	7.37
CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	7.37
NJ	JERSEY CITY 1.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	7.35
NY	HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW	CoCoRaHS	7.34
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7.34
NY	LINDENHURST 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	7.33
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	7.26
CT	RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	7.22
CT	BETHEL 4.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	7.21
NY	MALVERNE 0.5 SE	CoCoRaHS	7.17
NJ	VERONA TWP 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	7.10
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	7.10
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	6.99
NY	MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE	CoCoRaHS	6.96
CT	NEW CANAAN 3.8 N	CoCoRaHS	6.93
CT	RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	6.91
NY	COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	6.89
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	6.85
NY	BELLMORE 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	6.83
NY	LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE	CoCoRaHS	6.81
CT	COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE	CoCoRaHS	6.80
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	6.79
NY	SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW	CoCoRaHS	6.77
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	6.73
NY	SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	6.72
NY	SHIRLEY 2.9 N	CoCoRaHS	6.68
NY	RIDGE 1.5 SE	CoCoRaHS	6.65
NY	CENTEREACH 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	6.60
CT	MONROE 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	6.59
NJ	WOOD-RIDGE 0.2 N	CoCoRaHS	6.58
NJ	LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW	CoCoRaHS	6.57
NJ	WAYNE TWP 4.2 NNW	CoCoRaHS	6.56
NY	SELDEN 1.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	6.52
NY	NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	6.50
NJ	WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW	CoCoRaHS	6.48
NJ	OAKLAND 1.0 ESE	CoCoRaHS	6.43
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	6.41
NY	CENTERPORT 1.1 SE	CoCoRaHS	6.41
CT	SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	6.40
NY	BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	6.39
NY	RIDGE 1.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	6.39
NY	DEER PARK 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	6.30
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	6.29
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	6.29
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.28
CT	SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	6.27
CT	PROSPECT 0.5 SW	CoCoRaHS	6.27
NJ	NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	6.25
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	6.25
NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	6.19
CT	COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	6.13
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	6.10
NY	MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE	CoCoRaHS	6.08
NY	PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	6.02
NY	BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	5.99
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	5.90
CT	JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.90
NJ	OAKLAND 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.89
CT	NORWICH 5.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.89
CT	SALEM 3.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.89
NY	BROOKLYN 2.4 WSW	CoCoRaHS	5.88
CT	MADISON CENTER 1.3 N	CoCoRaHS	5.83
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	5.81
NJ	WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.80
NY	NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	5.80
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	5.80
NY	CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N	CoCoRaHS	5.76
CT	MERIDEN 2.8 WSW	CoCoRaHS	5.76
NJ	LYNDHURST TWP 1.6 NW	CoCoRaHS	5.75
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	5.75
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	5.73
NY	STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.72
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	5.72
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	5.72
NY	SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW	CoCoRaHS	5.72
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	5.70
NY	REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	5.69
CT	NORWICH 5.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.67
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW	CoCoRaHS	5.66
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	5.61
CT	TRUMBULL 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	5.59
CT	NEWTOWN 5.3 S	CoCoRaHS	5.57
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	5.54
CT	CROMWELL 0.4 WNW	CoCoRaHS	5.51
NJ	MAYWOOD 0.2 SW	CoCoRaHS	5.49
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	5.47
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	5.46
CT	EAST LYME 0.5 SW	CoCoRaHS	5.46
NY	PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	5.43
CT	KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.41
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW	CoCoRaHS	5.39
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	5.36
NY	NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	5.35
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.32
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW	CoCoRaHS	5.29
NY	RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.19
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	5.13
CT	OAKDALE 2.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	5.12
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW	CoCoRaHS	5.00
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	4.99
NY	JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	4.97
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	4.96
NJ	RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	4.93
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	4.93
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	4.90
CT	CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	4.90
CT	OLD LYME 3.4 ESE	CoCoRaHS	4.89
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	4.88
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	4.70
NJ	FAIR LAWN 0.9 E	CoCoRaHS	4.61
CT	HIGGANUM 0.8 NE	CoCoRaHS	4.61
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	4.59
NY	ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE	CoCoRaHS	4.58
CT	DURHAM 1.2 W	CoCoRaHS	4.58
NJ	CRANFORD TWP 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	4.56
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	4.51
NJ	FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	4.50
CT	NIANTIC 1.1 SW	CoCoRaHS	4.46
CT	STRATFORD 0.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	4.42
CT	NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	4.36
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N	CoCoRaHS	4.35
CT	HIGGANUM 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	4.23
CT	OLD LYME 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	4.23
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	4.18
CT	MOODUS 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	4.18
CT	WATERFORD 1.1 E	CoCoRaHS	4.14
CT	OLD LYME 0.5 W	CoCoRaHS	4.03
NY	HICKSVILLE 1.4 SSE	CoCoRaHS	3.93
CT	NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW	CoCoRaHS	3.78
NY	FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	3.78
CT	MYSTIC 1.6 W	CoCoRaHS	3.70
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	3.67
CT	STONINGTON 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	3.66
CT	PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	3.65
CT	MYSTIC 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	3.51
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	3.50
CT	GROTON 2.9 E	CoCoRaHS	3.49
CT	PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE	CoCoRaHS	3.45
CT	CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	3.44
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	3.42
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3.37
CT	STONINGTON 1.4 NNW	CoCoRaHS	3.33
CT	MYSTIC 3.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	3.30
CT	FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	3.24
NY	COMMACK 1.3 SW	CoCoRaHS	3.19
CT	WATERFORD 2.3 S	CoCoRaHS	3.19
NY	SAYVILLE 0.0 N	CoCoRaHS	3.17
CT	GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	3.14
NY	SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW	CoCoRaHS	2.95
NJ	HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	2.90
NJ	RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S	CoCoRaHS	2.84
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	2.75
NY	BAYPORT 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	2.40
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	2.34

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow Erin up to 160 already. We dodged a bullet for sure

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise. 

It’s been a while since we had a 10”+foot hurricane swell in August.

 

[winterwarlock]

89 push push

[winterwarlock]

Boom

 

90

 

Day 7 of longest 2025 heatwave rolls on

[doncat]

Pretty strong sea breeze all day today so high just reached 82°. Yesterday's high was 88° so heat wave here was 3 days.

[wdrag]

Follow NWS/WPC/NHC.  I'll monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum. 

12z/16 EPS nw of envelope of remaining global solutions for ERIN.  

Glad I'm not fishing Atlantic waters Monday-Friday.

EPS is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie,  connecting a bit with ERIN?  EPS PW near 1.5 and increased over the past 24 hrs of EPS cycles for 12z Wed. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary next week into Thu AM. 

12z/16 EPS gusts much more significant our Atlantic waters vs more seaward GEFS and CMCE.

Continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM next week.

 

WPC at 1841z has added marginal risk for excessive D4 and 5. This line added at 2013z.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Erin is not a fish storm, it's a whale storm. 

[Cfa]

High of 86 here. 6-day “heat wave” finished.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will turn briefly warmer with highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s acros the region. Afterward, a shift toward cooler weather lies ahead.

Noticeably cooler air will overspread the region tomorrow night and Monday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.37 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.333 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[steve392]

Skies are very very dark to my north above the NY/NJ state line by Mahwah, NJ

[steve392]

Just missed us

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since we had a 10”+foot hurricane swell in August.

 

Hurricane will be expanding in size as well which expands the fetch. 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise. 

There are still idiots on X saying there's still a threat to the EC for a landfall

[mgerb]

36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

There are still idiots on X saying there's still a threat to the EC for a landfall

Say no more. 

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

There are still idiots on X saying there's still a threat to the EC for a landfall

Guess they like to play long shots.

Does anyone think there is a better than 5% chance even for the OBX?

[vegan_edible]

has anyone else noticed a lot of yellow leaves? i cant tell if im tripping but i feel like im seeing a decent amount of yellow leaves for august. mainly between white plains and armonk, but can someone at least talk me off the ledge... summer can't be over yet

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

There are still idiots on X saying there's still a threat to the EC for a landfall

At best the outer banks could see TS winds. Not impossible given its size too and westward lean.