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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Sure but it could've hit somewhere along the eastern seaboard and we could've had a strong hurricane up here

Yea that would have been truly awful, even if it had weakened down to a Cat 2 or something and hit the outer banks, like that one storm did a few years ago after devastating the Bahamas as a Cat 5.  That was progged to hit Florida at one point.

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23 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Start a thread in this forum.  Call it local impacts of climate change.  I got no problem with that.  It’s a great tropic.  I’d read it so would everyone else.
 

Tom Dick and Harry type daily weather events discussion belongs here. Rain next week, dry pattern this month, ice storm, hurricane, that sort of thing.  All that stuff should be here.  Septembers getting warmer over the years, warm anomalies increasing in February over the years should be there.  That way you can be quantitate and say, septembers are getting warmer and heres the data.  Example:  If it’s modeled to be 89 on September 12, that is a pattern development for the September thread.  You don’t want to say it’s hot on September 12 because of climate change if it turns out it’s 41 on September 14th.  Wouldn’t want to say climate change has reversed in 2 days.  This is conflating 2 dynamics.  
 

All good my friend. 

These weather forums have always existed in order to provide context to the current weather being experienced and the forecasts based on these current initialized conditions.

Don and Uncle started adding background on the other forum. Reading their excellent posts was one of the reasons that I joined. While it’s nice having everyone list their current conditions, adding context to how it fits in to what is usual or unusual has always been a tradition. This is the main reason that weather records exist in the first place.

But these frequent climate shifts since the late 1970s to warmer have been changing the baseline. So we are no longer in the stable and cooler climate prior to the 1980s. Understanding this is essential since it sets the new parameters of what types of events are possible for each warmer climate background state. We can’t accurately make forecasts based on these older assumptions which applied to the cooler climate eras. Plus the warming introduces new biases into the model forecasts which we need to discuss for accurate forecasts.

If for some reason things were different and we were slipping into a new ice age, I doubt that the posters such as yourself would complain that too much attention was being given to how much colder our climate is becoming. So my guess is that you would be fine with discussing that in these threads and not want to move the discussion into a separate coming ice age and global cooling thread. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These weather forums have always existed in order to provide context to the current weather being experienced and the forecasts based on these current initialized conditions.

Don and Uncle started adding background on the other forum. Reading their excellent posts was one of the reasons that I joined. While it’s nice having everyone list their current conditions, adding context to how it fits in to what is usual or unusual has always been a tradition. This is the main reason that weather records exist in the first place.

But these frequent climate shifts since the late 1970s to warmer have been changing the baseline. So we are no longer in the stable and cooler climate prior to the 1980s. Understanding this is essential since it sets the new parameters of what types of events are possible for each warmer climate background state. We can’t accurately make forecasts based on these older assumptions which applied to the cooler climate eras. Plus the warming introduces new biases into the model forecasts which we need to discuss for accurate forecasts.

If for some reason things were different and we were slipping into a new ice age, I doubt that the posters such as yourself would complain that too much attention was being given to how much colder our climate is becoming. So my guess is that you would be fine with discussing that in these threads and not want to move the discussion into a separate coming ice age and global cooling thread. 

It's also interesting talking about previous historic records (both hot and cold, both snowy and rainy) and instrument relocations, it gives a lot of context to what's going on.

 

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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately, I'm not in Queens, I'm in Nassau County so there's no way to do that here, do you know if they are planning on expanding the micronet to Nassau County?

Lots of us exceeded JFK's 102 degrees in late June.  I remember the sea breeze made it there and then got stuck there before backing off lol.

 

They have no stations in eastern Queens anyway, Queens College is the farthest east they get and that's barely east of the Van Wyck. 

You basically have nothing in the eastern half of the borough that faces Nassau.

And technically it was part of the state Mesonet. And the sensor is on the roof of a building 50 feet up. 

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15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

They have no stations in eastern Queens anyway, Queens College is the farthest east they get and that's barely east of the Van Wyck. 

You basically have nothing in the eastern half of the borough that faces Nassau.

And technically it was part of the state Mesonet. And the sensor is on the roof of a building 50 feet up. 

ugh the state Mesonet is too coarse, they have one station in Nassau County and it's in Wantagh and I might as well use FRG lol.  I'm like 15 miles west of there.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

If we had this kind of thing in summers like 1993, 2010, etc, do you think they would have recorded even more 90/95/100 degree days?

 

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54
NY MINEOLA COOP 52
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51
NJ HARRISON COOP 50
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 48
NJ CRANFORD COOP 46
NY BRONX COOP 45
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 41
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 37
CT DANBURY COOP 37
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 35
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 34
NY WEST POINT COOP 33
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 31
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 27
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 26
CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 25
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 24
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 24
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 22
CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 22

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21
NY MINEOLA COOP 20
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 18
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 18
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 17
NJ HARRISON COOP 16
NJ CRANFORD COOP 14
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 12
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 12
NY BRONX COOP 11
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10
CT DANBURY COOP 10

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY MINEOLA COOP 6
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4
NJ HARRISON COOP 4
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 4
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 3
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3
CT DANBURY COOP 3
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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Peek a boo but most cloudy

 

Heatwave in jeopardy

 

Gonna be close - clouds meandering in CNJ but plenty of breaks.

 

made it to 86 here.  tomorrow next shot at 90 and then we'll see if next Sat/Sun can get sneaky 90s in the hot areas, enhanced if the week continues dry.

 

20252281750_GOES19-ABI-phi-GEOCOLOR-600x

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don could you run the numbers for 1949 and 1944 at NYC too with this new weighting system you're using? They seem like they are very close (1949 is 9th and 1944 is 10th), if you used your new weighting system would 1944 leapfrog over 1949?

August 1944 had so many heat records that still stand to this day.

It would be interesting to see how summers rank in terms of record highs and let's bring September into the mix.  For either NYC or JFK (or both) can summers be ranked in terms of most record daily high temperatures in JJAS?

 

Here it is:

image.png.f6e066df6db501d2fe1cd655089f1deb.png

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