August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[donsutherland1]

Near record and record heat again covered parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Preliminary highs:

Bangor: 97°
Boston: 90°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 98° (new daily record)
Caribou: 94° (new daily record)
Concord: 95°
Gaspé, QC: 97° (new all-time record)
Manchester: 94°
Miramichi, NB: 101° (new all-time record)
Montreal: 94° (new daily record)
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 92°
Ottawa: 95°
Plattsburgh: 92° (new daily record)
Portland: 90°

Tomorrow and Thursday will be very warm days. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90° in parts of the area. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The weekly guidance suggests that the remainder of the months will be close to normal. As a result, of the cooling of the extended guidance, the sensitivity analysis has flipped toward a slightly cooler than normal outcome for the month overall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.492 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Meanwhile today I'm cooler than you at 88

that stupid sea breeze (which also makes rip currents worse and caused 2 deaths)

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Near record and record heat again covered parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Preliminary highs as of 4 pm:

Bangor: 97°
Boston: 91°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 97° (new daily record)
Caribou: 93° (tied daily record)
Concord: 95°
Gaspé, QC: 96° (new August record)
Manchester: 94°
Miramichi, NB: 101° (new all-time record)
Montreal: 94° (new daily record)
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 92°
Ottawa: 95°
Plattsburgh: 92° (new daily record)
Portland: 90°

Tomorrow and Thursday will be very warm days. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90° in parts of the area. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The weekly guidance suggests that the remainder of the months will be close to normal. As a result, of the cooling of the extended guidance, the sensitivity analysis has flipped toward a slightly cooler than normal outcome for the month overall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.492 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

In the end, this summer will end up only slightly warmer than normal but it will be a fairly dry one.

 

[weathermedic]

82/73 at my station now after a high of 87. SE wind off the water.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Near record and record heat again covered parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Preliminary highs as of 4 pm:

Bangor: 97°
Boston: 91°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 97° (new daily record)
Caribou: 93° (tied daily record)
Concord: 95°
Gaspé, QC: 96° (new August record)
Manchester: 94°
Miramichi, NB: 101° (new all-time record)
Montreal: 94° (new daily record)
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 92°
Ottawa: 95°
Plattsburgh: 92° (new daily record)
Portland: 90°

Tomorrow and Thursday will be very warm days. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90° in parts of the area. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The weekly guidance suggests that the remainder of the months will be close to normal. As a result, of the cooling of the extended guidance, the sensitivity analysis has flipped toward a slightly cooler than normal outcome for the month overall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.492 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

what kind of wind was needed to get New Brunswick to 101 degrees but can't even hit 90 degrees here? The waters are much colder up there!

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weathermedic said:

82/73 at my station now after a high of 87. SE wind off the water.

They're closing all the beaches at 5 because of the deaths caused by the rip currents from what I have heard.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

My absolute favorite was that 95 on 10/2/2019 (with a heat index of 100).  So I think 100 in September is possible here one day, but those records from 1983 are still really hard to beat, that 98 in 1983 has been in place for over 4 decades now.

1983 was incredible for June, July, August and September all being WAY above normal and 100 degrees in both July and August!!!!

 

Chris, was 1983 the only time that we had 95+ degree high temperatures in all four months (June, July, August, and September)? Maybe 2010 matched that year?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Recurving means lower heights along the EC meaning cooler. A more southerly track means a probably hotter pattern.

The weird thing is I distinctly remember in 1995 when we had a ton of recurving hurricanes (they could never get past the 70W barrier) and all it did was make it hotter here.  August was historically hot and dry and we had so many wildfires that month.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember them being super hot in the 90s too.  I forget what year it was when I was driving through NJ but I recorded 106 degrees somewhere near Clifton.  Could have been either 1991 or 1993 or 1995 or 1999 lol.

The 90s were our hottest decade going by summer maxima/number of 90 degree days.

 

While we are only 6 summers into the 2020s, it’s been significantly warmer than the Philly to Newark corridor was back in the 1990s. If we continue this level of summer warmth for the next 4 summers, then it will have the highest number of 90° days on record. The previous leader for 90° days was the 2010s. 

Philly to Newark corridor average annual number of 90° days by decade

2020s….Philly….35…..Hightstown….39…..Newark….36

2010s…. 34….33…32

2000s….23…..21…23

1990s…..31…..20…29

1980s…..26….21….26

1970s……22….14….20

1960s……17…..20….21

1950s…..26……23…25

1940s…..26…..23….25

 

[psv88]

89.4 today

[winterwx21]

Had a high temp of 93 here today. 91 yesterday and 90 on Sunday. We'll make it a 4 day heat wave tomorrow. We'll see if we can make it a 5 day heat wave on Thursday ... it's gonna be close. 

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what kind of wind was needed to get New Brunswick to 101 degrees but can't even hit 90 degrees here? The waters are much colder up there!

 

Miramichi is inland. It isn’t affected by the sea breeze.

[doncat]

91/65 today.

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Had a high temp of 93 here today. 91 yesterday and 90 on Sunday. We'll make it a 4 day heat wave tomorrow. We'll see if we can make it a 5 day heat wave on Thursday ... it's gonna be close. 

It very well could be a 8 day heatwave in central jersey if clouds don't hold back on Thursday

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

that stupid sea breeze (which also makes rip currents worse and caused 2 deaths)

With Rip current warnings during the last 10 days, why hasn't NJ declared a state of emergency?

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Near record and record heat again covered parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Preliminary highs as of 4 pm:

Bangor: 97°
Boston: 91°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 97° (new daily record)
Caribou: 94° (new daily record)
Concord: 95°
Gaspé, QC: 96° (new August record)
Manchester: 94°
Miramichi, NB: 101° (new all-time record)
Montreal: 94° (new daily record)
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 92°
Ottawa: 95°
Plattsburgh: 92° (new daily record)
Portland: 90°

Tomorrow and Thursday will be very warm days. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90° in parts of the area. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The weekly guidance suggests that the remainder of the months will be close to normal. As a result, of the cooling of the extended guidance, the sensitivity analysis has flipped toward a slightly cooler than normal outcome for the month overall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.492 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Burlington made it to 98F. Second latest date in the calendar year to reach 98F.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Meteor shower viewing should be decent tonight 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

With Rip current warnings during the last 10 days, why hasn't NJ declared a state of emergency?

They really should have and actually the beaches should be closed if there are no lifeguards there. The other person who died was a grandmother at Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn.  In both cases it was after lifeguards left at 5 pm.  They should either make the lifeguards work until 8 pm (sun set) or close the beaches at 5 pm when they leave.

When that hurricane recurves the rip current problem will be even worse.

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Meteor shower viewing should be decent tonight 

Yes clear skies and some are saying tonight is the peak?

I thought it was last night lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Burlington made it to 98F. Second latest date in the calendar year to reach 98F.

 

my all time summers hold up well here, 1949 stands out, as does 2001 and especially 1944.

Some real roasters in the 40s and 50s.

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They really should have and actually the beaches should be closed if there are no lifeguards there. The other person who died was a grandmother at Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn.  In both cases it was after lifeguards left at 5 pm.  They should either make the lifeguards work until 8 pm (sun set) or close the beaches at 5 pm when they leave.

When that hurricane recurves the rip current problem will be even worse.

 

Lifeguards have always gotten off duty at 5pm. Nobody should be in the water after that but you can't lock down the beaches

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Miramichi is inland. It isn’t affected by the sea breeze.

But what causes the heat to get so far north and skip our latitude completely?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Lifeguards have always gotten off duty at 5pm. Nobody should be in the water after that but you can't lock down the beaches

well it looks like they will now.... rip current warnings are issued in advance aren't they?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we are only 6 summers into the 2020s, it’s been significantly warmer than the Philly to Newark corridor was back in the 1990s. If we continue this level of summer warmth for the next 4 summers, then it will have the highest number of 90° days on record. The previous leader for 90° days was the 2010s. 

Philly to Newark corridor average annual number of 90° days by decade

2020s….Philly….35…..Hightstown….39…..Newark….36

2010s…. 34….33…32

2000s….23…..21…23

1990s…..31…..20…29

1980s…..26….21….26

1970s……22….14….20

1960s……17…..20….21

1950s…..26……23…25

1940s…..26…..23….25

 

I see there was a major step back between the 1990s and 2000s.  I think the high number in the 2010s was driven by the 2010-2013 period which was exceptional, we had some very mediocre summers after that.

the 1990s, 2010s and 2020s (so far) are the only ones to average over 30 90 degree days.

How did Hightstown shoot so far up, where is that town located? Prior to the 2010s they never averaged more than the low 20s? I find that to be weird, I don't find our summers measurably hotter than the 90s.  If they are, it's not because we have had hotter summers than 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, but mainly because we haven't had the cooler in between summers like 1992 and 1996 and 1997.

Also, when do you think this kind of heat will reach our area and not just be confined to the Philly to Newark area?

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

New Brnswck: 93
EWR: 92
TEB: 92
LGA: 91
NYC: 91
PHL: 90
TTN: 90
BLM: 89
ISP: 87
ACY: 86
JFK: 85

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

In the end, this summer will end up only slightly warmer than normal but it will be a fairly dry one.

 

JFK:  Looks solidly hot 2/3.

June: +2.7
July:  +3.7
Aug:   -1.5 - +0.5  

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But what causes the heat to get so far north and skip our latitude completely?

The position of the ridge and how far north the jet stream is.

 

The position of the ridge allows for some onshore flow in the NJ-NYC-CT areas. Miramichi, Caribou, Bangor, Burlington and Montreal were in prime spots for maximum heating.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, was 1983 the only time that we had 95+ degree high temperatures in all four months (June, July, August, and September)? Maybe 2010 matched that year?

 

Only 1983 did it.

[psv88]

Some rain would be nice. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

my all time summers hold up well here, 1949 stands out, as does 2001 and especially 1944.

Some real roasters in the 40s and 50s.

 

I doubt we'll see another winter of 1944-45 though! Here are some scenes from the Finger Lakes and Buffalo, respectively.

And Toronto, Ontario, in the wake of the Great Snowstorm of 1944: