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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop watching the radar from that cold room of yours…go out and enjoy this. 

I would be working outside today if not for the risk for storms too early in the afternoon. Outside with a laptop and electrical wires if a storm quickly popped up...not good. 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno.   The EPS synoptic evolution over the mid latitude continent is subtly cooler than the GEFs ... Heat's really sensitive to minor perturbations. Just the nature of atmospheric physics. Could go either way. 

the 0z run chipped away at the cool down

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

there's the warning...right on que 

That 1717z scan there's a big KDP core (liquid water) above the freezing level, but at the same time ZDR is pretty low, near zero. That tells me that you've got some water coated hailstones up there. So evaporational cooling and cooling from melting. I think that was the right call pulling the trigger early on that before reflectivity responded.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That 1717z scan there's a big KDP core (liquid water) above the freezing level, but at the same time ZDR is pretty low, near zero. That tells me that you've got some water coated hailstones up there. So evaporational cooling and cooling from melting. I think that was the right call pulling the trigger early on that before reflectivity responded.

Great insight...I was looking at KDP and noticed the core but didn't have the in-depth knowledge of what was ongoing. If this thing is able to get more vertical growth it could become quite nasty. It's also starting to bow out a bit. Not a ton of lightning yet (per Radarscope) so kind of watching to see if we get any increase. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Great insight...I was looking at KDP and noticed the core but didn't have the in-depth knowledge of what was ongoing. If this thing is able to get more vertical growth it could become quite nasty. It's also starting to bow out a bit. Not a ton of lightning yet (per Radarscope) so kind of watching to see if we get any increase. 

Grab me some fries.

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This stuff could take off in CT (particularly south and east of Hartford) but the sfc winds are turning westerly quickly. But those dews in southern CT are pretty wild. Also have to watch between BDL/Enfield. Looks like we're starting to see an increase in vertical growth finally 

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