July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SACRUS]

 

81 / 60 Wind more S SSW

[winterwarlock]

Chamber of Commrrce Day 2

[steve392]

79 degrees out. Beautiful cool breeze while sitting in backyard.  Gorgeous day. 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

81 / 60 Wind more S SSW

Now next Tuesday is forecast to be hotter here than Friday because now Friday has a 60% chance of rain.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, steve392 said:

79 degrees out. Beautiful cool breeze while sitting in backyard.  Gorgeous day. 

Even better than yesterday (more sun, more of a breeze.)

[SACRUS]

 

Clear along the beaches / coast more clouds inland

 

[bluewave]

The HVN ASOS just to my west is currently at 78.2° which is the 3rd warmest July on record here. The average daily high is 86.0° which is 4th highest. The average minimum temperature is 70.5° which is 4th highest. My 90° day count so far is 8 which is 3rd highest behind 2012 and 2013 through 7-22. The 70° minimum number is 20 days so far is in 3rd place for highest to date behind 2013 and 2024.

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	78.6	0
2	2024	78.3	0
-	2020	78.3	0
3	2025	78.2	9
4	2022	78.1	0
5	2023	78.0	1
6	2019	77.9	0
7	2010	77.3	0
8	2012	76.6	0
9	2011	76.4	0
10	2008	75.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	86.8	0
2	2019	86.6	0
-	2010	86.6	0
3	2023	86.2	1
4	2025	86.0	9
-	2020	86.0	0
-	2013	86.0	0
5	2024	85.5	0
6	2011	85.4	0
7	1977	85.1	8
8	2012	85.0	0
9	1952	84.4	0
10	2018	84.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	71.3	0
2	2024	71.0	0
3	2020	70.6	0
4	2025	70.5	9
5	2023	69.7	1
6	2022	69.3	0
7	2019	69.2	0
8	2008	68.3	0
9	2012	68.2	0
10	2010	67.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-07-22	11	1
2	2013-07-22	10	0
3	2025-07-22	8	0
-	2010-07-22	8	0
-	1952-07-22	8	0
4	2021-07-22	7	0
-	1977-07-22	7	39
5	2022-07-22	6	0
-	2019-07-22	6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-07-22	23	1
-	2013-07-22	23	0
2	2025-07-22	20	0
3	2021-07-22	17	0
4	2010-07-22	16	0
5	2023-07-22	14	1

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Clear along the beaches / coast more clouds inland

 

Yes completely clear here now!!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The HVN ASOS just to my west is currently at 78.2° which is the 3rd warmest July on record here. The average daily high is 86.0° which is 4th highest. The average minimum temperature is 70.5° which is 4th highest. My 90° day count so far is 8 which is 3rd highest behind 2012 and 2013 through 7-22. The 70° minimum number is 20 days so far is in 3rd place for highest to date behind 2013 and 2024.

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	78.6	0
2	2024	78.3	0
-	2020	78.3	0
3	2025	78.2	9
4	2022	78.1	0
5	2023	78.0	1
6	2019	77.9	0
7	2010	77.3	0
8	2012	76.6	0
9	2011	76.4	0
10	2008	75.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	86.8	0
2	2019	86.6	0
-	2010	86.6	0
3	2023	86.2	1
4	2025	86.0	9
-	2020	86.0	0
-	2013	86.0	0
5	2024	85.5	0
6	2011	85.4	0
7	1977	85.1	8
8	2012	85.0	0
9	1952	84.4	0
10	2018	84.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	71.3	0
2	2024	71.0	0
3	2020	70.6	0
4	2025	70.5	9
5	2023	69.7	1
6	2022	69.3	0
7	2019	69.2	0
8	2008	68.3	0
9	2012	68.2	0
10	2010	67.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-07-22	11	1
2	2013-07-22	10	0
3	2025-07-22	8	0
-	2010-07-22	8	0
-	1952-07-22	8	0
4	2021-07-22	7	0
-	1977-07-22	7	39
5	2022-07-22	6	0
-	2019-07-22	6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-07-22	23	1
-	2013-07-22	23	0
2	2025-07-22	20	0
3	2021-07-22	17	0
4	2010-07-22	16	0
5	2023-07-22	14	1

tied with 2010 over there for 90 degree days!!

I'm shocked 1993 and 1999 aren't up there too.

Was the highest temperature ever recorded there in July 2011??

[nycwinter]

not to often you get 3 beautiful comfortable days in a row in mid to late july in nyc..a break that was much needed..

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

not to often you get 3 beautiful comfortable days in a row in mid to late july in nyc..a break that was much needed..

That is going away starting tomorrow, in to mid next week right?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

not to often you get 3 beautiful comfortable days in a row in mid to late july in nyc..a break that was much needed..

it's the first 4 day break with zero rain since early June.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 86
EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
JFK: 82 * still no intra hour highs
ISP: 82
ACY: 82
BLM: 81 * missing intra hour highs

NYC: 80

[wdrag]

No threading tonight but continues to look interesting to me Fri-Sun and next Tue before an extended cool down develops late next week. 

 

No Aug thread from myself til late Fri afternoon after the CPC week 3-4 issues.  

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No threading tonight but continues to look interesting to me Fri-Sun and next Tue before an extended cool down develops late next week. 

 

No Aug thread from myself til late Fri afternoon after the CPC week 3-4 issues.  

It's probably not going to be all hot all the time either.  Saturday looks cooler and drier now with the cold front making it down to Baltimore.  Sunday looks wet.  The hot days are really just Friday and Tuesday.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Most of the hot weather from here on out appears to me to be borderline heat as in upper 80s to lower 90s not the kind of furnace heat we saw the last week of June. While I can't rule out one longer heatwave sometime in August featuring again, mostly lower 90s, I think the odds are slightly against it. I am concerned about a pattern which to me looks ripe for tropical development off of the southeast coast of the U.S. or in the southwest Atlantic. And we'll have eventually what I'd call a dirty ridge over most of the east up into eastern Canada during August with some upper lows embedded at times that could pull a storm northward up the eastern seaboard.

I guess on Friday NYC could get up to about 92 or 93.

WX/PT

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tomorrow could be the last 100° potential for the summer since Newark hasn’t had a 100° reading in all 3 summer months since 1993.

 

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	100	M	103
2021	103	97	99	103
2011	102	108	98	108
1994	102	99	95	102
1993	102	105	100	105
1952	102	98	92	102
1943	102	95	97	102
1988	101	101	99	101
1966	101	105	95	105
2024	100	99	100	100
1959	100	93	96	100
1953	100	99	102	102
1934	100	98	90	100
1923	100	99	92	100

Models coming into reality with the slower southerly wind. It’ll roast up here before the humid breeze (it’ll drop the temp by a few degrees but raise the dewpoint by same number of degrees) comes through between 2-4pm. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models coming into reality with the slower southerly wind. It’ll roast up here before the humid breeze (it’ll drop the temp by a few degrees but raise the dewpoint by same number of degrees) comes through between 2-4pm. 

The models sped up the frontal passage. While we still get a sea breeze, there is now a late day wind shift to the WNW. So areas from Huntington to maybe Commack could go 95°+. Even JFK could go mid-90s with that wind shift. The wild card will be convection. If it breaks up or heads to our south, then even the South Shore could have a late day high after the mid-day sea breeze. Another scenario would be a warm up on the outflow boundary if the convection comes right through the area. Where the sea breeze reverses on the NW gust front with a late day temperature jump. Saw this a bunch of times back in Long Beach.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the hot weather from here on out appears to me to be borderline heat as in upper 80s to lower 90s not the kind of furnace heat we saw the last week of June. While I can't rule out one longer heatwave sometime in August featuring again, mostly lower 90s, I think the odds are slightly against it. I am concerned about a pattern which to me looks ripe for tropical development off of the southeast coast of the U.S. or in the southwest Atlantic. And we'll have eventually what I'd call a dirty ridge over most of the east up into eastern Canada during August with some upper lows embedded at times that could pull a storm northward up the eastern seaboard.

I guess on Friday NYC could get up to about 92 or 93.

WX/PT

Subtropical SSTs are very warm. Once the lid comes off we could see a flurry of tropical systems 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Subtropical SSTs are very warm. Once the lid comes off we could see a flurry of tropical systems 

If we get a bunch of offshore wind days behind cool fronts, the SSTs will cool down from upwelling. The warm waters here are shallow. But no doubt if we go through Aug with these warm waters we’re asking for trouble-either from a tropical system or stalled out front and MCS deluge like we saw last summer and happens most frequently in August around here. 

[bluewave]

It’s really cool that they just updated the Newark area weather records back to 1843. They used to average only 6 days reaching 90° a year from 1843 to 1872. The winter weather records are pretty fun to look at also.

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0	0	2	3	1	0	6
Max	0 1872	1 1872	6 1843	10 1843	5 1853	4 1851	19 1854
Min	0 1872	0 1871	0 1872	0 1871	0 1872	0 1872	0
1843	M	0	6	10	0	0	16
1844	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
1845	0	0	1	8	0	0	9
1846	0	0	0	5	2	0	7
1847	0	0	1	3	0	0	4
1848	0	0	4	1	0	0	5
1849	0	0	4	3	0	0	7
1850	0	0	3	5	1	0	9
1851	0	0	1	2	0	4	7
1852	0	0	3	4	0	1	8
1853	0	0	3	1	5	1	10
1854	0	0	3	9	4	3	19
1855	0	0	2	4	0	0	6
1856	0	0	4	9	0	0	13
1857	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1858	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
1859	0	0	1	2	0	0	3
1860	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
1861	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
1862	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
1863	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
1864	0	0	2	1	2	0	5
1865	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
1866	0	0	0	8	0	0	8
1867	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1868	0	0	0	4	0	0	4
1869	0	0	0	2	2	0	4
1870	0	0	2	4	0	0	6
1871	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1872	0	1	0	4	0	0	5

 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get a bunch of offshore wind days behind cool fronts, the SSTs will cool down from upwelling. The warm waters here are shallow. But no doubt if we go through Aug with these warm waters we’re asking for trouble-either from a tropical system or stalled out front and MCS deluge like we saw last summer and happens most frequently in August around here. 

That's true but if ssts are warm not too far from us then that'll still aid tropical systems that come here. 

[wdrag]

Pretty good chance will issue a thread for Fri-Sun at 8P this evening.

Includes SVR FF potential Fri afternoon (in my opinion only-despite weak 5-7H lapse rates T/TD spreads of 30F at max heating 2PM Fri will favor downdrafts-downbursts---especially near NYC) as well as 'possible' first 100F NYC since 2012; and SVR FF Sunday with  spot 5" 72 hr total by 06z/Monday.  

I know the group think is that CP is viewed as a cooling center relative to surroundings.  However, EC continues pushing 100 for NYC.  We'll see if its too aggressive.

 

[rclab]

32 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Pretty good chance will issue a thread for Fri-Sun at 8P this evening.

Includes SVR FF potential Fri afternoon (in my opinion only-despite weak 5-7H lapse rates T/TD spreads of 30F at max heating 2PM Fri will favor downdrafts-downbursts---especially near NYC) as well as 'possible' first 100F NYC since 2012; and SVR FF Sunday with  spot 5" 72 hr total by 06z/Monday.  

I know the group think is that CP is viewed as a cooling center relative to surroundings.  However, EC continues pushing 100 for NYC.  We'll see if its too aggressive.

 

Well done Walt! Referring to Central Park as a, thought of, cooling center was civil,  diplomatic  and for many true. Stay well and cool, as always ….

 

[Sundog]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s really cool that they just updated the Newark area weather records back to 1843. They used to average only 6 days reaching 90° a year from 1843 to 1872. The winter weather records are pretty fun to look at also.

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0	0	2	3	1	0	6
Max	0 1872	1 1872	6 1843	10 1843	5 1853	4 1851	19 1854
Min	0 1872	0 1871	0 1872	0 1871	0 1872	0 1872	0
1843	M	0	6	10	0	0	16
1844	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
1845	0	0	1	8	0	0	9
1846	0	0	0	5	2	0	7
1847	0	0	1	3	0	0	4
1848	0	0	4	1	0	0	5
1849	0	0	4	3	0	0	7
1850	0	0	3	5	1	0	9
1851	0	0	1	2	0	4	7
1852	0	0	3	4	0	1	8
1853	0	0	3	1	5	1	10
1854	0	0	3	9	4	3	19
1855	0	0	2	4	0	0	6
1856	0	0	4	9	0	0	13
1857	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1858	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
1859	0	0	1	2	0	0	3
1860	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
1861	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
1862	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
1863	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
1864	0	0	2	1	2	0	5
1865	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
1866	0	0	0	8	0	0	8
1867	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1868	0	0	0	4	0	0	4
1869	0	0	0	2	2	0	4
1870	0	0	2	4	0	0	6
1871	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1872	0	1	0	4	0	0	5

 

How do the records in the Newark area go that far back? 

I thought Central Park had the longest period of records around here and that goes back to 1869. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If we get a bunch of offshore wind days behind cool fronts, the SSTs will cool down from upwelling. The warm waters here are shallow. But no doubt if we go through Aug with these warm waters we’re asking for trouble-either from a tropical system or stalled out front and MCS deluge like we saw last summer and happens most frequently in August around here. 

What the water temps are within 25 miles of the coast has little impact on any tropical activity up here. Because we have some of the longest and shallowest continental shelf in the world. Super shallow water has little to no OHC. That’s why it’s left off OHC maps.

What we need to focus on is the water temps from 50 to 300 miles off the coast. And those waters are less effected by localized upwelling events. Those waters are currently near record warm. 
 

Here’s the Delaware bay buoy 
 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, Sundog said:

How do the records in the Newark area go that far back? 

I thought Central Park had the longest period of records around here and that goes back to 1869. 

They just updated the Newark weather records back to 1843. The average July temperature was 73.7° during the 1840s and 1850s. It has been 80.3° since 2010.
 

July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	73.8	73.7
1843	73.0	73.0
1844	72.8	72.8
1845	74.3	74.3
1846	72.7	72.7
1847	74.5	74.5
1848	72.0	72.0
1849	73.9	73.9
1850	75.5	75.5
1851	74.3	74.3
1852	74.3	74.3
1853	73.5	73.5
1854	75.8	75.8
1855	74.9	74.9
1856	76.2	76.2
1857	71.9	71.9
1858	73.5	73.5
1859	70.6	70.6

 

July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	80.3	80.3
2010	82.3	82.3
2011	82.7	82.7
2012	80.8	80.8
2013	80.9	80.9
2014	77.0	77.0
2015	79.0	79.0
2016	79.9	79.9
2017	77.3	77.3
2018	78.2	78.2
2019	80.6	80.6
2020	80.8	80.8
2021	78.8	78.8
2022	82.6	82.6
2023	80.6	80.6
2024	81.3	81.3
2025	81.4	81.4

[SACRUS]

78 / 64 sunny.   First warm - hot day with upper 80s - low 90s in the hot spots.  Tomorrow pending on afternoon clouds / showers-storms, mid - upper 90s in the hot spots - see if anyone can get 100.  Saturday cooler with onshore flow but inland hot spots still to low 90s.  Sunday storms / clouds likely keep the heat at bay to the south and west as the ridge retreats then builds back north with more heat mon - Wed.  Ride backs west by Wed and sets up cooler period between 7/31 - 8/5-6.   Looks to get warm - hot /humid towards the 6th with onshore flow coming around more southerly flow.  Heat expanding east - Atlantic ridge coming west - probabyl spells a much warmer / wetter second half.

 

[wdrag]

48 minutes ago, rclab said:

Well done Walt! Referring to Central Park as a, thought of, cooling center was civil,  diplomatic  and for many true. Stay well and cool, as always ….

 

RJAY led the way a few weeks ago. He gets the cred. Very nice pic

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They just updated the Newark weather records back to 1843. The average July temperature was 73.7° during the 1840s and 1850s. It has been 80.3° since 2010.
 

July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	73.8	73.7
1843	73.0	73.0
1844	72.8	72.8
1845	74.3	74.3
1846	72.7	72.7
1847	74.5	74.5
1848	72.0	72.0
1849	73.9	73.9
1850	75.5	75.5
1851	74.3	74.3
1852	74.3	74.3
1853	73.5	73.5
1854	75.8	75.8
1855	74.9	74.9
1856	76.2	76.2
1857	71.9	71.9
1858	73.5	73.5
1859	70.6	70.6

 

July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	80.3	80.3
2010	82.3	82.3
2011	82.7	82.7
2012	80.8	80.8
2013	80.9	80.9
2014	77.0	77.0
2015	79.0	79.0
2016	79.9	79.9
2017	77.3	77.3
2018	78.2	78.2
2019	80.6	80.6
2020	80.8	80.8
2021	78.8	78.8
2022	82.6	82.6
2023	80.6	80.6
2024	81.3	81.3
2025	81.4	81.4

Certainly would have been a very pleasant July climate, which is a good thing in the pre-AC days.

I always liked that Toronto, Canada has continuous records back to 1840. Seems to paint a similar picture, obviously Toronto being colder in general.