July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but unfortunately rainy Sunday.

 

 

Heat looks to come north again Mon - Tue next week.   Id say the hottest areas have 4  or 5 of 7 days 90+ and 3 95+ 7/24 - 7/30,

[doncat]

My station currently running a 79.3° mean for the month....warmest month ever recorded in 47 years is 80.5° set back in 1999.

[psv88]

59.9. We did it 

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

59.9. We did it 

Meh, that rounds to 60 and you know it LOL. 53 and 58 up here in the great north woods the past two mornings 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, doncat said:

My station currently running a 79.3° mean for the month....warmest month ever recorded in 47 years is 80.5° set back in 1999.

1999 had one of our hottest summers and 2 of our longest heatwaves ever.

I'm surprised July 2010 isn't up there at your station though.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Heat looks to come north again Mon - Tue next week.   Id say the hottest areas have 4  or 5 of 7 days 90+ and 3 95+ 7/24 - 7/30,

Looks like we won't see dry and coolish weather like we have had the last few days until the first week of August?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011)
NYC: 100 (2011)
LGA: 100 (1955)
JFK: 102 (2011)
New Brnswck: 105 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: 55 (1939)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 59 (1992)
JFK: 59 (1992)
New Brnswck: 51 (1931)


Historical:

 

1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)

1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.  Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.  Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description."  The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.

1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: Severe thunderstorms affected parts of northern and central Illinois. In Peoria, winds gusting to 85 mph knocked over trees. Two tornadoes affected Fulton County. The first passed through mainly rural areas. The second tornado caused major damage in Canton, where 127 businesses and 100 homes were destroyed. 300 other homes and 100 trailers were damaged; total damages were around $20 million dollars. Two people were killed as the tornado moved through a mobile home park. Power lines were downed during the storm; some areas were without power until the 28th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Intense thunderstorms dumped copious amounts of rainfall over the western parts of Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts were quite impressive, including reports of up to 7 inches just north of Arapaho, in Custer County. Four inches of rain fell in just one hour east of Arapaho and two inches of rain fell in only 30 minutes in Clinton. Many creeks and rivers were quickly forced out of their banks by the heavy rainfall. Floods covered the Arapaho-Weatherford Road with as much as 4 feet of water. More than 5 inches of rain fell in the Taloga area of Dewey County, causing Highway 183 to be inundated by one to two feet of flood water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Tropical Storm Bob moved across south Florida from Ft. Myers to just north of Palm Beach. The storm then turned north and moved northeast of Florida. The storm did minor damage to roofs and downed some trees, mainly on Florida's west coast. Rainfall amounts ranged up to 13 inches at Naples. Several beaches suffered erosion from Port Charlotte to Marco Island. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: At Dodge City, KS thunderstorm winds to 100 mph caused extensive damage to fences. One filling station canopy was downed and it landed on two occupied vehicles but there were no injuries. One roof was taken off a house with debris scattered several hundred yards. A large storage shed was heavily damaged with two motor homes inside receiving extensive damage. Debris was carried one quarter of a mile. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1998: Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003: Boise, Idaho: With a reading of 107°F, a new record was set for the number of consecutive days with temperatures above 100°F. July 23 marks the 9th consecutive day. (Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

2006: This was the peak of an intense July heat wave that affected much of California and the NW United States thanks to an intense upper level heat ridge. Fresno, CA was the hottest since 7/27/1933. An all-time record high minimum was set with 90°. In Lemoore, 10,000 customers lost power for up to four hours. In all, 46 deaths were reported with 18 injuries. Eugene, OR tied their July record with 105°. Other daily record highs included: Phoenix, AZ: 114°, Redding, CA: 114°, Sacramento, CA: 111°, Lewiston, ID: 109°, Medford, OR: 107°, Spokane, WA: 102 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Rhode Island: A waterspout forms at about 4 pm just off Rumstick Point near Barrington then moves onto land as a tornado in Warren before moving into the Ocean Grove section of Swansea, Massachusetts. The tornado's path is estimated as 4.2 miles long and 40 yards wide. No injuries are reported, but damage to trees, power lines and houses is reported.(Ref. WxDoctor)

2010: After a severe thunderstorm, a Vivian South Dakota resident, Les Scott, found a hailstone with a diameter of 8.0 inches and its weight was 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches. These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970. They also surpass the record for the greatest diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. But the Aurora hailstone still holds the record for the greatest circumference of 18.75 inches. (Thus the Aurora hailstone was more spherical than the Vivian hailstone.)(Ref. NOAA News Release July 30, 2010 - Record Hailstone )(Ref. See a Picture of the World's Largest Hailstone)(Ref. Info. on the Storm Yielding Hailstone(Ref. See a video About the World's Largest Hailstone)

2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

 

wild while Chicago was flooding, we were in the midst of a 2 day extreme bake off.

Today was the second day of the bakeoff:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011)
NYC: 100 (2011)
LGA: 100 (1955)
JFK: 102 (2011)
New Brnswck: 105 (2011)

 

LGA: 59 (1992)
JFK: 59 (1992)

I also remember Pinatubo cooled 1992....the year without a summer (we had a quick rubber band effect between 1991-1992-1993).

 

[doncat]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1999 had one of our hottest summers and 2 of our longest heatwaves ever.

I'm surprised July 2010 isn't up there at your station though.

It is... July 2010 at 80.3° is just behind 1999.

[SACRUS]

 

81 / 60 Wind more S SSW

[winterwarlock]

Chamber of Commrrce Day 2

[steve392]

79 degrees out. Beautiful cool breeze while sitting in backyard.  Gorgeous day. 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

81 / 60 Wind more S SSW

Now next Tuesday is forecast to be hotter here than Friday because now Friday has a 60% chance of rain.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, steve392 said:

79 degrees out. Beautiful cool breeze while sitting in backyard.  Gorgeous day. 

Even better than yesterday (more sun, more of a breeze.)

[SACRUS]

 

Clear along the beaches / coast more clouds inland

 

[bluewave]

The HVN ASOS just to my west is currently at 78.2° which is the 3rd warmest July on record here. The average daily high is 86.0° which is 4th highest. The average minimum temperature is 70.5° which is 4th highest. My 90° day count so far is 8 which is 3rd highest behind 2012 and 2013 through 7-22. The 70° minimum number is 20 days so far is in 3rd place for highest to date behind 2013 and 2024.

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	78.6	0
2	2024	78.3	0
-	2020	78.3	0
3	2025	78.2	9
4	2022	78.1	0
5	2023	78.0	1
6	2019	77.9	0
7	2010	77.3	0
8	2012	76.6	0
9	2011	76.4	0
10	2008	75.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	86.8	0
2	2019	86.6	0
-	2010	86.6	0
3	2023	86.2	1
4	2025	86.0	9
-	2020	86.0	0
-	2013	86.0	0
5	2024	85.5	0
6	2011	85.4	0
7	1977	85.1	8
8	2012	85.0	0
9	1952	84.4	0
10	2018	84.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	71.3	0
2	2024	71.0	0
3	2020	70.6	0
4	2025	70.5	9
5	2023	69.7	1
6	2022	69.3	0
7	2019	69.2	0
8	2008	68.3	0
9	2012	68.2	0
10	2010	67.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-07-22	11	1
2	2013-07-22	10	0
3	2025-07-22	8	0
-	2010-07-22	8	0
-	1952-07-22	8	0
4	2021-07-22	7	0
-	1977-07-22	7	39
5	2022-07-22	6	0
-	2019-07-22	6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-07-22	23	1
-	2013-07-22	23	0
2	2025-07-22	20	0
3	2021-07-22	17	0
4	2010-07-22	16	0
5	2023-07-22	14	1

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Clear along the beaches / coast more clouds inland

 

Yes completely clear here now!!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The HVN ASOS just to my west is currently at 78.2° which is the 3rd warmest July on record here. The average daily high is 86.0° which is 4th highest. The average minimum temperature is 70.5° which is 4th highest. My 90° day count so far is 8 which is 3rd highest behind 2012 and 2013 through 7-22. The 70° minimum number is 20 days so far is in 3rd place for highest to date behind 2013 and 2024.

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	78.6	0
2	2024	78.3	0
-	2020	78.3	0
3	2025	78.2	9
4	2022	78.1	0
5	2023	78.0	1
6	2019	77.9	0
7	2010	77.3	0
8	2012	76.6	0
9	2011	76.4	0
10	2008	75.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	86.8	0
2	2019	86.6	0
-	2010	86.6	0
3	2023	86.2	1
4	2025	86.0	9
-	2020	86.0	0
-	2013	86.0	0
5	2024	85.5	0
6	2011	85.4	0
7	1977	85.1	8
8	2012	85.0	0
9	1952	84.4	0
10	2018	84.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	71.3	0
2	2024	71.0	0
3	2020	70.6	0
4	2025	70.5	9
5	2023	69.7	1
6	2022	69.3	0
7	2019	69.2	0
8	2008	68.3	0
9	2012	68.2	0
10	2010	67.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-07-22	11	1
2	2013-07-22	10	0
3	2025-07-22	8	0
-	2010-07-22	8	0
-	1952-07-22	8	0
4	2021-07-22	7	0
-	1977-07-22	7	39
5	2022-07-22	6	0
-	2019-07-22	6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-07-22	23	1
-	2013-07-22	23	0
2	2025-07-22	20	0
3	2021-07-22	17	0
4	2010-07-22	16	0
5	2023-07-22	14	1

tied with 2010 over there for 90 degree days!!

I'm shocked 1993 and 1999 aren't up there too.

Was the highest temperature ever recorded there in July 2011??

[nycwinter]

not to often you get 3 beautiful comfortable days in a row in mid to late july in nyc..a break that was much needed..

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

not to often you get 3 beautiful comfortable days in a row in mid to late july in nyc..a break that was much needed..

That is going away starting tomorrow, in to mid next week right?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

not to often you get 3 beautiful comfortable days in a row in mid to late july in nyc..a break that was much needed..

it's the first 4 day break with zero rain since early June.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 86
EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
JFK: 82 * still no intra hour highs
ISP: 82
ACY: 82
BLM: 81 * missing intra hour highs

NYC: 80

[wdrag]

No threading tonight but continues to look interesting to me Fri-Sun and next Tue before an extended cool down develops late next week. 

 

No Aug thread from myself til late Fri afternoon after the CPC week 3-4 issues.  

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No threading tonight but continues to look interesting to me Fri-Sun and next Tue before an extended cool down develops late next week. 

 

No Aug thread from myself til late Fri afternoon after the CPC week 3-4 issues.  

It's probably not going to be all hot all the time either.  Saturday looks cooler and drier now with the cold front making it down to Baltimore.  Sunday looks wet.  The hot days are really just Friday and Tuesday.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Most of the hot weather from here on out appears to me to be borderline heat as in upper 80s to lower 90s not the kind of furnace heat we saw the last week of June. While I can't rule out one longer heatwave sometime in August featuring again, mostly lower 90s, I think the odds are slightly against it. I am concerned about a pattern which to me looks ripe for tropical development off of the southeast coast of the U.S. or in the southwest Atlantic. And we'll have eventually what I'd call a dirty ridge over most of the east up into eastern Canada during August with some upper lows embedded at times that could pull a storm northward up the eastern seaboard.

I guess on Friday NYC could get up to about 92 or 93.

WX/PT

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tomorrow could be the last 100° potential for the summer since Newark hasn’t had a 100° reading in all 3 summer months since 1993.

 

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	100	M	103
2021	103	97	99	103
2011	102	108	98	108
1994	102	99	95	102
1993	102	105	100	105
1952	102	98	92	102
1943	102	95	97	102
1988	101	101	99	101
1966	101	105	95	105
2024	100	99	100	100
1959	100	93	96	100
1953	100	99	102	102
1934	100	98	90	100
1923	100	99	92	100

Models coming into reality with the slower southerly wind. It’ll roast up here before the humid breeze (it’ll drop the temp by a few degrees but raise the dewpoint by same number of degrees) comes through between 2-4pm. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models coming into reality with the slower southerly wind. It’ll roast up here before the humid breeze (it’ll drop the temp by a few degrees but raise the dewpoint by same number of degrees) comes through between 2-4pm. 

The models sped up the frontal passage. While we still get a sea breeze, there is now a late day wind shift to the WNW. So areas from Huntington to maybe Commack could go 95°+. Even JFK could go mid-90s with that wind shift. The wild card will be convection. If it breaks up or heads to our south, then even the South Shore could have a late day high after the mid-day sea breeze. Another scenario would be a warm up on the outflow boundary if the convection comes right through the area. Where the sea breeze reverses on the NW gust front with a late day temperature jump. Saw this a bunch of times back in Long Beach.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the hot weather from here on out appears to me to be borderline heat as in upper 80s to lower 90s not the kind of furnace heat we saw the last week of June. While I can't rule out one longer heatwave sometime in August featuring again, mostly lower 90s, I think the odds are slightly against it. I am concerned about a pattern which to me looks ripe for tropical development off of the southeast coast of the U.S. or in the southwest Atlantic. And we'll have eventually what I'd call a dirty ridge over most of the east up into eastern Canada during August with some upper lows embedded at times that could pull a storm northward up the eastern seaboard.

I guess on Friday NYC could get up to about 92 or 93.

WX/PT

Subtropical SSTs are very warm. Once the lid comes off we could see a flurry of tropical systems 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Subtropical SSTs are very warm. Once the lid comes off we could see a flurry of tropical systems 

If we get a bunch of offshore wind days behind cool fronts, the SSTs will cool down from upwelling. The warm waters here are shallow. But no doubt if we go through Aug with these warm waters we’re asking for trouble-either from a tropical system or stalled out front and MCS deluge like we saw last summer and happens most frequently in August around here. 

[bluewave]

It’s really cool that they just updated the Newark area weather records back to 1843. They used to average only 6 days reaching 90° a year from 1843 to 1872. The winter weather records are pretty fun to look at also.

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0	0	2	3	1	0	6
Max	0 1872	1 1872	6 1843	10 1843	5 1853	4 1851	19 1854
Min	0 1872	0 1871	0 1872	0 1871	0 1872	0 1872	0
1843	M	0	6	10	0	0	16
1844	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
1845	0	0	1	8	0	0	9
1846	0	0	0	5	2	0	7
1847	0	0	1	3	0	0	4
1848	0	0	4	1	0	0	5
1849	0	0	4	3	0	0	7
1850	0	0	3	5	1	0	9
1851	0	0	1	2	0	4	7
1852	0	0	3	4	0	1	8
1853	0	0	3	1	5	1	10
1854	0	0	3	9	4	3	19
1855	0	0	2	4	0	0	6
1856	0	0	4	9	0	0	13
1857	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1858	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
1859	0	0	1	2	0	0	3
1860	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
1861	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
1862	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
1863	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
1864	0	0	2	1	2	0	5
1865	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
1866	0	0	0	8	0	0	8
1867	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1868	0	0	0	4	0	0	4
1869	0	0	0	2	2	0	4
1870	0	0	2	4	0	0	6
1871	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1872	0	1	0	4	0	0	5

 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get a bunch of offshore wind days behind cool fronts, the SSTs will cool down from upwelling. The warm waters here are shallow. But no doubt if we go through Aug with these warm waters we’re asking for trouble-either from a tropical system or stalled out front and MCS deluge like we saw last summer and happens most frequently in August around here. 

That's true but if ssts are warm not too far from us then that'll still aid tropical systems that come here.