July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Storms now right along the southern NJ coast and off shore moving south.

weird for sure-moving SW and barely any clouds outside of that little batch

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

weird for sure-moving SW and barely any clouds outside of that little batch

we had that rain last night

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperature difference between NJ and Long Island. So it’s unlikely JFK sees 100° on Friday. Saturday will have a frontal passage to deal with. So more clouds and convection chances again for the weekend. South Shore beaches could see strong rip currents  and 30+ mph SSW gusts Friday.

 

rip currents are what killed Malcolm-Jamal Warner =\

Can we use geoengineering to end rip currents?

I'm conceiving of a sea wall like structure placed just offshore in the design of a sieve that would only let water through and would prevent a person from being swept offshore. This would have the side benefit of keeping lethal sharks away from the near shore coastal waters too.

 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So this is one of our more mediocre heat ups that does not involve Long Island- it's like a coastal hugger where it snows in NJ and rains on LI.

This Friday will probably be the last 100° day for the warm spots around the area during the next 2 weeks as the ridge retrogrades back to the Rockies.

July 21-28

 

July 28- August 4

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This Friday will probably be the last 100° day for the warm spots around the area during the next 2 weeks as the ridge retrogrades back to the Rockies.

July 21-28

 

July 28- August 4

 

whats causing the out of season Ambrose Jet-- it usually does not happen in July.

also, by warm spots I think you mean, Newark, in these situations it's only Newark that hits 100, they are the local area's oven lol.

 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Storms now right along the southern NJ coast and off shore moving south.

Waterspouts were spotted

[SACRUS]

 

 

Onshore easterly winds now

 

 

[SACRUS]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when is the next time we actually see a sunny day, Tony?

 

 

Id say Thursday has that look of a true mostly sunny.  Today is looking cloudy till more clearing around 3PM

 

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing the out of season Ambrose Jet-- it usually does not happen in July.

also, by warm spots I think you mean, Newark, in these situations it's only Newark that hits 100, they are the local area's oven lol.

 

It may not be a pure Ambrose Jet in the strictest sense. Could be a hybrid with approaching front enhancing the local sea breeze in the NY Bight Friday.

In any event, Southerly flow events have been dominating westerly flow events with the ridge east of New England last decade. From 2010 to 2013 the sea breeze circulations were frequently interrupted by ridging in the Great Lakes.

Out of all my years living in Long Beach, I never saw another sea breeze shut off like during 2010.  Some of the worst beach traffic in Long Island history.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It may not be a pure Ambrose Jet in the strictest sense. Could be a hybrid with approaching front enhancing the local sea breeze in the NY Bight Friday.

In any event, Southerly flow events have been dominating westerly flow events with the ridge east of New England last decade. From 2010 to 2013 the sea breeze circulations were frequently interrupted by ridging in the Great Lakes.

Out of all my years living in Long Beach, I never saw another sea breeze shut off like during 2010.  Some of the worst beach traffic in Long Island history.

Many times we actually see our hottest days just before the front passes (or just after), it depends on the orientation of the front I suppose.

Do you think with all the awful beach traffic, they'll make more beaches private or community or town only?

 

[Brian5671]

If that ridge parks out west for a few weeks-the worst of the summer heat is likely done as we head into August.

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Waterspouts were spotted

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Many times we actually see our hottest days just before the front passes (or just after), it depends on the orientation of the front I suppose.

Do you think with all the awful beach traffic, they'll make more beaches private or community or town only?

 

I know in Long Beach that they depend on the beach traffic for the local businesses. Especially combined with NYC people coming off the trains. Atlantic Beach and Lido Beach have many fewer commercial businesses. So they don’t see the same type of beach attendance that Long Beach does. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, FPizz said:

 

this is like Florida 

[Roger Smith]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Nw Bnswck: 102 (1980)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)
JFK: 59 (1966)
New Bnswck: 51 (1944)

 

Nice to see a record from 1980, I assume, NYC's record before 2011 was from 1980 on this date?

 

 

2011  (104F)  actually broke a record of 101F set in 1957, and previously it was 100F (1926, 1955), 98F in 1918. The max on July 22, 1980 at NYC was only 94. Possibly there were local storms as 0.28" rain is reported for the date (the highs on 20th and 21st were 101 and 102). The 101F is still the daily record for July 20, and 1980 also still has July 16 (99F). It never set a record on July 21st as that had already happened (104F 1977). It does however hold the overnight low high min record of 82F for July 21st. 1980 also held Aug 8 (96F) until 2001 hit 99F on that date. 1980 does still have the high min (80F) for Aug 8th. Between the two hot spells was a daily rainfall record of 3.47" on July 29th, 1980. The max and min that day were 77, 70. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

 

Isn't this more of a landspout, than a tornado, since it is not associated with convective activity?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

2011  (104F)  actually broke a record of 101F set in 1957, and previously it was 100F (1926, 1955), 98F in 1918. The max on July 22, 1980 at NYC was only 94. Possibly there were local storms as 0.28" rain is reported for the date (the highs on 20th and 21st were 101 and 102). The 101F is still the daily record for July 20, and 1980 also still has July 16 (99F). It never set a record on July 21st as that had already happened (104F 1977). It does however hold the overnight low high min record of 82F for July 21st. 1980 also held Aug 8 (96F) until 2001 hit 99F on that date. 

it's really strange how there are no triple digit highs at NYC between July 24-30 yet we see triple digit highs quite frequently between July 20-23 and then it just seems to fall off a cliff....

Maybe it's because of the days getting shorter that the record highs fall off a cliff after the 23rd (but that does not explain the triple digit highs we saw more frequently in previous eras in August and even September.)

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I know in Long Beach that they depend on the beach traffic for the local businesses. Especially combined with NYC people coming off the trains. Atlantic Beach and Lido Beach have many fewer commercial businesses. So they don’t see the same type of beach attendance that Long Beach does. 

Those beaches are also private for residents or leisure pass holders, Long Beach allows anyone to buy a beach pass. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's really strange how there are no triple digit highs at NYC between July 24-30 yet we see triple digit highs quite frequently between July 20-23 and then it just seems to fall off a cliff....

Maybe it's because of the days getting shorter that the record highs fall off a cliff after the 23rd (but that does not explain the triple digit highs we saw more frequently in previous eras in August and even September.)

 

Mostly a tree growth issue since NJ had 100° heat during the last week of July back in 2005. But it’s been a lull period in recent years for 100° heat. More 100s before that week and a few after since then.

Data for July 25, 2005 through July 31, 2005
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	103
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	103
Newark Area	ThreadEx	101
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	101
NEW LISBON 2N	COOP	101
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	100
ELIZABETH	COOP	100
HARRISON	COOP	100

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Mostly a tree growth issue since NJ had 100° heat during the last week of July back in 2005. But it’s been a lull period in recent years for 100° heat. More 100s before that week and a few after since then.

Data for July 25, 2005 through July 31, 2005
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	103
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	103
Newark Area	ThreadEx	101
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	101
NEW LISBON 2N	COOP	101
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	100
ELIZABETH	COOP	100
HARRISON	COOP	100

 

Even LGA only has 1 100 degree high in that period though.  Maybe it's that monsoon issue you mentioned? Do we see a ramp up in rainfall beginning in the last week of July?

edit-- it's July 24-30 I think the 100 degree records resume on the 31st lol.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty strong Ambrose Jet on Friday keeping the LI temps down compared to NJ especially South Shore.

 

We’d probably need 20-30mph southerly wind to keep the north shore that much cooler than NJ/Hudson Valley. We usually heat up pretty fast then we have the breeze eventually by 3-4pm that cools it down but too late (and with the waters so warm not much cooling and more humidity). 

[Roger Smith]

There's another shorter absence of extreme highs around Aug 21-25. They are most likely just statistical quirks that will be erased by random variability eventually. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Those beaches are also private for residents or leisure pass holders, Long Beach allows anyone to buy a beach pass. 

Yeah, I remember that from living there. Long Beach made the decision a long time ago to use their beaches for revenue from people coming from NYC and other towns on Long Island. This has lead to overcrowding in Long Beach especially on summer weekends and holidays.

Atlantic Beach is much quieter with a town beach for residents and private beach clubs. Those beach clubs cater to people from the 5 towns and Garden City. They are very expensive memberships and only limited to a relative small number of members. So they don’t see the congestion that Long Beach gets.

Lido has residents only and the Town of Hempstead beach for those residents. A hidden gem down there in Nickerson Beach when there is an amazing bird colony. Some of the premier wildlife photographers go there to photograph. Also numerous rare bird sightings from the local birdwatchers. I think Don would enjoy it with the beautiful photography that he does.

[SACRUS]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Even LGA only has 1 100 degree high in that period though.  Maybe it's that monsoon issue you mentioned? Do we see a ramp up in rainfall beginning in the last week of July?

edit-- it's July 24-30 I think the 100 degree records resume on the 31st lol.

Yes  24 - 30 NYC 7/31 : 102 (1933)

[SACRUS]

 

All of Newark non 100 highs in July were 99 degree readings.

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I remember that from living there. Long Beach made the decision a long time ago to use their beaches for revenue from people coming from NYC and other towns on Long Island. This has lead to overcrowding in Long Beach especially on summer weekends and holidays.

Atlantic Beach is much quieter with a town beach for residents and private beach clubs. Those beach clubs cater to people from the 5 towns and Garden City. They are very expensive memberships and only limited to a relative small number of members. So they don’t see the congestion that Long Beach gets.

Lido has residents only and the Town of Hempstead beach for those residents. A hidden gem down there in Nickerson Beach when there is an amazing bird colony. Some of the premier wildlife photographers go there to photograph. Also numerous rare bird sightings from the local birdwatchers. I think Don would enjoy it with the beautiful photography that he does.

Thanks Bluewave. I will have to check out Nickerson Beach.

[winterwx21]

A few days ago we were talking about the possibility of super low dewpoints in the high 40s for today. The dewpoint here right now is 60, so that certainly didn't materialize. Still feels good out there though with the moderate humidity and temp only at 80. 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A few days ago we were talking about the possibility of super low dewpoints in the high 40s for today. The dewpoint here right now is 60, so that certainly didn't materialize. Still feels good out there though with the moderate humidity and temp only at 80. 

40's would have been crazy.   We haven't hit 80 here yet so it's quite comfortable

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I remember that from living there. Long Beach made the decision a long time ago to use their beaches for revenue from people coming from NYC and other towns on Long Island. This has lead to overcrowding in Long Beach especially on summer weekends and holidays.

Atlantic Beach is much quieter with a town beach for residents and private beach clubs. Those beach clubs cater to people from the 5 towns and Garden City. They are very expensive memberships and only limited to a relative small number of members. So they don’t see the congestion that Long Beach gets.

Lido has residents only and the Town of Hempstead beach for those residents. A hidden gem down there in Nickerson Beach when there is an amazing bird colony. Some of the premier wildlife photographers go there to photograph. Also numerous rare bird sightings from the local birdwatchers. I think Don would enjoy it with the beautiful photography that he does.

Yes, some of those birds even make it up here.  Today was a fine day for bird photography, not only did I see cardinals and mockingbirds (which are regulars here), I also saw a green parakeet who was talking (in bird words lol) to his partner.  The reason I know they were using language is because there were distinct words and sentences in between pauses when the partner responded lol.

We also have many different kinds of gulls and terns here, but those are pests.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A few days ago we were talking about the possibility of super low dewpoints in the high 40s for today. The dewpoint here right now is 60, so that certainly didn't materialize. Still feels good out there though with the moderate humidity and temp only at 80. 

it's that damn onshore wind.

Last night was nice, it was in the mid 60s here.