July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No I mean sky conditions, it's been mostly sunny here the last two days (even now.)

I don't even see any clouds in the sky.

Near 90 was the forecast for today, but no one had mid and upper 90s like we're seeing right now. It's the hottest day since late June.

Not a drop of rain yet-- didn't get anything yesterday either.

 

Most of the models had mid to upper 90s. Plus you can’t use convective outlooks as an IMBY forecast. It’s a general forecast for the outlook region. Some areas got very little rain and others had flooding. 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About the same here. Didn’t even make it through the trees. Grass is browning. The south shore summer flash drought is a real thing. People who do not live here just do not get it. It’s a micro climate seasonal desert. 

Enjoy it. Like living in a rain forest in the trees/hills of westchester

[steve392]

73 out, had fog driving in but sun was quickly burning it off.  Already disgusting out.

[Brian5671]

Looks like good chances of rain today and tomorrow

[jm1220]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About the same here. Didn’t even make it through the trees. Grass is browning. The south shore summer flash drought is a real thing. People who do not live here just do not get it. It’s a micro climate seasonal desert. 

Thankfully the Rockaways to Long Beach did get maybe a half inch from the storms that grazed the barrier islands, but seen it happen many times. Can be boring as hell for months behind the seabreeze in the marine layer. 

[SACRUS]

 

77 / 73 partly cloudy with brightening skies.   Hot / humid  90s - mid/upper 90s in the clearer hot areas.  Scattered/storms and rain later this evening.   Warm/humid Thu - Fri - clouds and more widespread showers as the front is slow to progress - enough sun could get some to 90 but very isolated.   The weekend looks 80% dry/sunny warm/humid mainly 80s, some to 90 in the hot spots. Overall warm p hot and humid pattern turning hotter by mid month.  Storms/showers look persistently to form and keep it overall wettra.

 

7/9 : Hot / humid - storms
7/10 - 7/11 : Widespread storms, rain, clouds 
7/12 - 7/14:  Warm - humid - storms chances limited 90s - mainly 80s
7/15 : Overall hotter - humid and wetter

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs: 

EWR: 104 (1993)
NYC: 106 (1936)
LGA: 98 (1993)
JFK: 101 (1993)
New Brnswck: 105 (1936)

Lows: 

EWR: 56 (1963)
NYC: 54 (1963)
NYC: 57 (1963)
JFK: 55 (1963)
New Brnswck: 46 (1923)

Historical:

1860 - A hot blast of air in the middle of a sweltering summer pushed the mercury up to 115 degrees at Fort Scott and Lawrence, KS. (David Ludlum)

1876: The minimum temperature of 80° or above on the 9th and 10th were the warmest two consecutive nights ever in Washington, DC.(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1882 - Ice formed on the streets of Cheyenne, WY, during a rare summer freeze. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature hit an all-time record high of 106 degrees at the Central Park Observatory in New York City, a record which lasted until LaGuardia Airport hit 107 degrees on July 3rd in 1966. (The Weather Channel)

1938: A deadly, estimated F4 tornado moved east-southeast across the eastern edge of Andover, SD to north of Bristol, SD. 17 buildings were destroyed at Andover, and at least one home was completely swept away. An elderly person was killed at the western edge of Andover and a couple died in a home at the southern edge of town. About two hours later, another estimated F4 tornado moved east-northeast from two miles northeast of White, South Dakota in Brookings County to Hendricks, MN. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968 - Columbus, MS received 15.68 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: Hurricane Bob was born in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the first Atlantic Hurricane to be given a male name.

1982: Wind shear caused the crash of Pam Am flight 759 after takeoff from New Orleans International Airport in Louisiana. 145 people on the plane and 8 people on the ground were killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Michigan. A tornado near Munising, MI, destroyed part of a commercial dog kennel, and one of the missing dogs was later found unharmed in a tree top half a mile away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Alpena, MI, and Buffalo, NY, suffered through their sixth straight day of record heat. The percentage of total area in the country in the grips of severe to extreme drought reached 43 percent, the fourth highest total of record. The record of 61 percent occurred during the summer of 1934. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced very heavy rain in southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Up to 5.6 inches of rain was reported in Berrien County, MI. Sioux Falls SD reported a record high of 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: Severe thunderstorms produced a swath of very large and damaging hail and damaging winds. Golf ball-size hail and 60 mph winds were reported on the west side of Decatur, IL with numerous roofs and automobiles damaged by the hail. Hail grew to nearly the size of baseballs by the time the storms reached the Charleston/Mattoon areas. Total damage from the storms was estimated around $5 million dollars.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: One of the strongest and most long-lived wind events of recorded history in the Midwest pounded portions of Nebraska and Iowa. The wind event, called a Derecho, actually started near Goodland, KS and raced across southern Nebraska and into Iowa traveling at 60 mph. In the Omaha metro area, tree and property damage was heavy as 70 to 100 mph winds caused $7 million dollars in damage. Also in Nebraska, power line damage alone totaled $30 million dollars and total property damage was estimated near $100 million dollars. This wind storm even spawned a tornado in the city of Lincoln, NE causing damage to the north end of town. As the derecho moved into southwest Iowa, 13 high-tension power line poles were downed on the east side of Council Bluffs. Winds continued in the 85 mph range as far as east as Fremont County, Iowa before finally subsiding in the central part of the Hawkeye State. 11 inches of rain fell overnight in Scranton, IA. Much of the downtown of Davenport, IA was under water as the Great Flood of 1993 raged on.

1993" record daily high temperatures were set at: Newark, NJ: 104°, NYC-Kennedy Airport, NY: 101°, Greensboro, NC: 101°, Atlantic City, NY: 100°, Wallops Island, VA: 100°, Dulles Airport, VA: 99°, NYC-LaGuardia, NY: 98°, Concord, NH: 95° and Islip, NY: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: A new July maximum temperature record was set as Anchorage, AK hit 84°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[Maureen]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like good chances of rain today and tomorrow

Ugh. Guess it’s good for the mushroom bog I’ve apparently started here, Carteret Caps. 
 

 

[gravitylover]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thankfully the Rockaways to Long Beach did get maybe a half inch from the storms that grazed the barrier islands, but seen it happen many times. Can be boring as hell for months behind the seabreeze in the marine layer. 

I think that growing up in Oceanside the immediate south shore summer dryness badly skewed my perception of summer weather in the northeast. My memories are of pleasant, mostly sunny days where you just went and did stuff outside all the time. My time was almost entirely spent south of Merrick Rd and mostly more than a mile S of that and daily watering was definitely a thing, you could easily tell who didn't (like me ) 

9 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Ugh. Guess it’s good for the mushroom bog I’ve apparently started here, Carteret Caps. 
 

 

Ha! My garden is having a pretty good mushroom year too. It's a sign of healthy soil so I'm good with it. Thankfully our dog isn't a "taster" and pretty much stays away from them and the slime molds.

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Ugh. Guess it’s good for the mushroom bog I’ve apparently started here, Carteret Caps. 
 

 

meanwhile we've missed most of it here-brown grass and wilting plants....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

59 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thankfully the Rockaways to Long Beach did get maybe a half inch from the storms that grazed the barrier islands, but seen it happen many times. Can be boring as hell for months behind the seabreeze in the marine layer. 

Yeah I was in the screw zone in between heavier rains north and south. 
I’ll elaborate as to why I care so much. It’s more then just about my vegetable garden. I’m am a land scape designer and the majority of my work is on the south shore. I did several large installations this spring. One was the entire front of the house I rent in. My landlord hasn’t completed hooking up the irrigation system and promised to hand water if it got dry. While he has watered occasionally the garden looks like shit. Hydrangeas are burned. It would be a simple fix if culturally we accepted native plant gardens. As they are adapted to big swings in precip. But when people want that “wow factor” I have no choice but to use temperamental plants. 

[bluewave]

It’s impressive how competitive Eastern Long Island has been on 90° days so far.

 

New York 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	12
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	12
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	10
POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
Poughkeepsie Area	ThreadEx	10
PORT JERVIS	COOP	9
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	9
SARA NEW YORK	RAWS	9
ST. JAMES	COOP	9
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	8
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	COOP	8
VICTOR 2NW	COOP	8
LANSING MANOR	COOP	8
WEBSTER 2 NE	COOP	8
STONYKILL NEW YORK	RAWS	8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7
DANSVILLE	COOP	7
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7
Islip Area	ThreadEx	7
GANG MILLS NEW YORK	RAWS	7
SHERBURNE NEW YORK	RAWS	7

 

New Jersey 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	17
Newark Area	ThreadEx	17
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	16
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	15
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	15
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	14
HARRISON	COOP	14
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	13
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	13

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 73

[SACRUS]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s impressive how competitive Eastern Long Island has been on 90° days so far.

 

New York 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	12
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	12
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	10
POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
Poughkeepsie Area	ThreadEx	10
PORT JERVIS	COOP	9
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	9
SARA NEW YORK	RAWS	9
ST. JAMES	COOP	9
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	8
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	COOP	8
VICTOR 2NW	COOP	8
LANSING MANOR	COOP	8
WEBSTER 2 NE	COOP	8
STONYKILL NEW YORK	RAWS	8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7
DANSVILLE	COOP	7
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7
Islip Area	ThreadEx	7
GANG MILLS NEW YORK	RAWS	7
SHERBURNE NEW YORK	RAWS	7

 

New Jersey 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	17
Newark Area	ThreadEx	17
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	16
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	15
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	15
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	14
HARRISON	COOP	14
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	13
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	13

 

 

 

5 in Central park - distorting perception for NYC heat when used as the center point for all NYC  in general.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

meanwhile we've missed most of it here-brown grass and wilting plants....

Same here. The last 2 days only .05 of an inch

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah I was in the screw zone in between heavier rains north and south. 
I’ll elaborate as to why I care so much. It’s more then just about my vegetable garden. I’m am a land scape designer and the majority of my work is on the south shore. I did several large installations this spring. One was the entire front of the house I rent in. My landlord hasn’t completed hooking up the irrigation system and promised to hand water if it got dry. While he has watered occasionally the garden looks like shit. Hydrangeas are burned. It would be a simple fix if culturally we accepted native plant gardens. As they are adapted to big swings in precip. But when people want that “wow factor” I have no choice but to use temperamental plants. 

I think it was 2 summers ago where it was just comical the difference between my neighborhood in Huntington Station and Long Beach when I visited. Long Beach looked completely parched and in the midst of extreme drought but once north of the Southern State it became lush with greenery everywhere. LI's microclimates are always fascinating.

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

5 in Central park - distorting perception for NYC heat when used as the center point for all NYC  in general.

5 and 17 for Newark are both garbage.  The average of them gets you to where the vast majority of the area are in. 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Same here. The last 2 days only .05 of an inch

Tomorrow looks like a decent chance of some more widespread showers/storms-today looks dry

[lee59]

10 days here with 90 plus. A lot for this early in the summer.

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, FPizz said:

5 and 17 for Newark are both garbage.  The average of them gets you to where the vast majority of the area are in. 

Newark is suburbia and then rural to its west and southwest though. When the winds are westerly or southwesterly during heatwaves, they are blowing over a lot of greenery and open space. 

The Central Park station is in a mini jungle, improperly sited compared to all the other official stations surrounded by concrete. 

So the conditions between these two stations are actually the opposite.

East Jersey naturally is the hottest area, probably due to some downsloping. Other personal stations in that area even in suburbia get basically as hot as Newark does, you can see them on the Ambient Weather website. 

 

 

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Newark is suburbia and then rural to its west and southwest though. When the winds are westerly or southwesterly during heatwaves, they are blowing over a lot of greenery and open space. 

The Central Park station is in a mini jungle, improperly sited compared to all the other official stations surrounded by concrete. 

So the conditions between these two stations are actually the opposite.

East Jersey naturally is the hottest area, probably due to some downsloping. Other personal stations in that area even in suburbia get basically as hot as Newark does, you can see them on the Ambient Weather website. 

 

 

I would call the Newark area as urban with suburbia to the near west and rural to the far west.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think it was 2 summers ago where it was just comical the difference between my neighborhood in Huntington Station and Long Beach when I visited. Long Beach looked completely parched and in the midst of extreme drought but once north of the Southern State it became lush with greenery everywhere. LI's microclimates are always fascinating.

Absolutely. Growing up in south wantagh it was always “it never rains in the summer”. So it’s certainly not a new phenomenon. If you look at the prominent historical tree species you can see the micro climate. The south shore had plains and pitch pine and oak forest. While the north shore had a fully developed climax deciduous forest. Some of that is soil related but precip patterns also played a role. Water temps have skyrocketed to the mid 70s and that’s when the island as a whole tends to score its biggest precip events. Maybe tomorrow produces. 

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

5 and 17 for Newark are both garbage.  The average of them gets you to where the vast majority of the area are in. 

Depends on the area - EWR far better for urban/ city residents.  New Brunswick a good baseline for those in suburbia (NJ).  The reasl issue is that the media/others use NYC (central park) as the reference that skews perception.  Mostly an issue for weather and historical enthusiasts. I dont think either is a sensor or calibration issue and both reflect their environment fine.

[SACRUS]

85 / 72 running about 5 degrees slower than yesterday.

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I would call the Newark area as urban with suburbia to the near west and rural to the far west.

The station is at the airport though, not in the city of Newark. The city itself is north of the airport, which is not where the wind blows from during heatwaves to begin with.

Directly west of the airport, it's all single family homes with grass and trees. I would have posted a screenshot but this stupid forum caps images at 12 kilobytes like it's 1995. 

Meanwhile the Central Park station is inside the most urban environment in the entire country. 

 

[forkyfork]

put a station here and it would be warmer than ewr

[Sundog]

My issue with Central Park is the same as Sacrus's, people reference it as the station of record. If it was Islip being stupid I wouldn't care nearly as much. 

[FPizz]

36 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Newark is suburbia and then rural to its west and southwest though. When the winds are westerly or southwesterly during heatwaves, they are blowing over a lot of greenery and open space. 

The Central Park station is in a mini jungle, improperly sited compared to all the other official stations surrounded by concrete. 

So the conditions between these two stations are actually the opposite.

East Jersey naturally is the hottest area, probably due to some downsloping. Other personal stations in that area even in suburbia get basically as hot as Newark does, you can see them on the Ambient Weather website. 

 

 

To me taking the average of both stations is probably the best option.  One gets a slight bump down, the other a slight bump up.  Newark though is nearly always the hottest whereas NYC a lot of times, even though overgrown, still finishes temp wise in the middle.  

 

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

My issue with Central Park is the same as Sacrus's, people reference it as the station of record. If it was Islip being stupid I wouldn't care nearly as much. 

Funny thing is people as you said use it, but like no one on the forum lives there.  They really should use other stations.  Its been an issue with temps and snow measuring forever, but no one cares, so I don't either.  

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

To me taking the average of both stations is probably the best option.  One gets a slight bump down, the other a slight bump up.  Newark though is nearly always the hottest whereas NYC a lot of times, even though overgrown, still finishes temp wise in the middle.  

 

Funny thing is people as you said use it, but like no one on the forum lives there.  They really should use other stations.  Its been an issue with temps and snow measuring forever, but no one cares, so I don't either.  

I think you'll find Central Park deviates more from the mean compared to Newark. 

Yesterday I was 98 degrees and I am all single family homes with trees and grass. 

LGA was also 98. Newark was 100. 

Central Park though was only 93! Come on bro 

[Sundog]

I just casually checked a few Ambient weather stations in the green suburbs just west of Newark airport and they mostly topped off at 99 degrees. Newark actually represents actual communities. 

Central Park only represents the 10 square feet around the station.