July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This might be the days of rain I saw on the forecast yesterday.  Sunday might be our last good day for awhile.

Im tired of this rain. Its like every late afternoon clouds up and rains...OK we get fri sat sun but you get my idea

 

Hasn't been a great summer for weather from Memorial Day on...yippee we get 3 days but it should be 6 days with rain chance after that

[steve392]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did we have less trees in the 40s, 50s and 60s when all those 100+ readings and 7+ day heatwaves were happening (as well as years like 1993 and 1999) or was there overgrowth because of the higher rainfall totals we have now? Maybe it's a combination of both? And more rainfall also means more water retention by the foliage which also makes for a slower temperature rise.

I agree we need to get the equipment out of that area.

We also need to remove some of these trees, I notice we have a lot of parasitic trees that really do not belong here. Tree of *Heaven* being a case in point.

 

 

I am going to say the tree's were saplings or new growth back then and are what are fully grown now for us.  So they probably did have less canopy cover providing shade.  

All the tree's in and around my neighborhood were all planted when the area was built right during WW2.

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The usual suspects are in the top 20, the summers I always talk about lol. Question though, why are we using 31 not 30? A month is scientifically speaking, the amount of time it takes for the moon to revolve around the earth and that averages out to 30 days (it's really 29.53 but we can round that to 30.)  

 

1. 1966 June 20 to July 20 ___________91.97

 2. 1993 July 5 to Aug 4 ______________91.61

 3. 1999 July 3 or 4 to Aug 2 or 3 ____ 90.94

 4. 1955 July 8 to Aug 7 ______________ 90.90

 5. 1944 July 22 to Aug 21 ___________ 90.84

 6. 1980 July 14 to Aug 13 ____________ 90.71

t7. 1988A July 16 to Aug 15 ___________ 90.29

t7. 2010 June 27 to July 27 __________ 90.29 (or July 3 to Aug 2 was also 90.29)

 9. 2005 July 15 to Aug 14 ___________ 89.87

10. 2011 July 4 to Aug 3 _____________ 89.84

11. 1983 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 89.71

12. 1952 June 24 to July 24 _________ 89.35

t13. 1977 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 89.29

t13. 1995 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 89.29

t15. 1876 June 23 to July 23 __________ 89.26

t15. 1991 June 24 to July 24 __________ 89.26

t15. 2006 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________89.26

18. 1949 July 13 to Aug 12 ____________ 89.13 __ a non-overlapping 31d interval June 11 to July 11 was 86.74

19. 1953 June 20 to July 20 __________ 88.90 __ non-overlapping 31d intervals Aug 8 (or 10) to Sep 7 (or 9) 87.00

20. 2002 Jul 20 or 22 to Aug 19 or 21_ 88.87 __ non-overlapping 31d interval June 20 or 21 to July 20 or 21 was 87.10

I used 31 days because July and August (and Dec Jan) are 31 day months and many of the records for calendar months are set in those months (not as many in winter given that Feb contributes more than June to lists of all-time record months). Our calendar has seven 31d months, four 30d and February (28 or 29). I can rerun the data and generate a list of top twenty 30-day averages, will hazard a guess it won't change a lot from the above. 

I went back into the table posted and fixed a few minor ranking errors after going back over my excel file generated list. Below 20th place (the portion you quoted) there are some 'B' 31-day intervals from various years. Each time one of those makes the list, the years below it are bumped down one rank if you were ranking years for their hottest 31-day interval (the B examples would not be in that list). 

[winterwx21]

51 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Im tired of this rain. Its like every late afternoon clouds up and rains...OK we get fri sat sun but you get my idea

 

Hasn't been a great summer for weather from Memorial Day on...yippee we get 3 days but it should be 6 days with rain chance after that

At least it's perfect timing though with 3 great days for the big holiday weekend. Even tomorrow with temps going into the low 90s, it won't feel bad out there with dewpoints only coming up a little to the low 60s. Couldn't have asked for a better 3 day holiday weekend. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At least it's perfect timing though with 3 great days for the big holiday weekend. Even tomorrow with temps going into the low 90s, it won't feel bad out there with dewpoints only coming up a little to the low 60s. Couldn't have asked for a better 3 day holiday weekend. 

Agreed, mostly dry outside of the severe weather the evening of 7/3

[steve392]

Outside of Friday, will this be the first Saturday AND Sunday that it hasn't rained in months???

[Roger Smith]

In terms of when does the hottest 31 day interval occur, this is the frequency of these intervals (* symbol means interval is matched by a later one, usually the next day is its starting point but differentials are noted of up to five days for 1899 (intervals starting July 2 and 7) and six days for 2010 (June 27 and July 3 start these)). 

Since this list includes the cooler half of the entries, we do find a few overlapping a calendar month. (June can only be 'all in' for May 31 to June 30 or June 1 to July 1, the first of those exists in the data for 1925). 

dur'n hottest 31d ___ Years include

May 31 - Jun 30 __ 1925

Jun 5 - Jul 5 _____ 1984

Jun 7 - Jul 7 _____ 1883

Jun 8 - Jul 8 _____ 1888, 2004

Jun 11 - Jul 11 ____ 1945

Jun 14 - Jul 14 ___ 1994

Jun 15 - Jul 15 ___ 1962, 1976

Jun 16 - Jul 16 ___ 2000

Jun 17 - Jul 17 ___ 1912

Jun 18 - Jul 18 ___ 1869, 1872, 1880, 1971

Jun 19 - Jul 19 ___ 1965* 1997

Jun 20 - Jul 20 __ 1904, 1907* 1908 1909, 1923* 1953 1964 1966

Jun 21 - Jul 21 ___ 1874, 1934*,

Jun 22 - Jul 22 __ 1946, 2017

Jun 23 - Jul 23 __ 1876, 1897, 2003, 2013

Jun 24 - Jul 24 __ 1875, 1898, 1901, 1922, 1952, 1991

Jun 25 - Jul 25 __ 1900, 1906, 2014

Jun 26 - Jul 26 __ 1878, 1889

Jun 27 - Jul 27 __ 2010* 2012* 2021

Jun 28 - Jul 28 __ 1881, 1910, 2018

Jun 29 - Jul 29 __ 1948, 2023

Jun 30 - Jul 30 __ 1887, 1903, 1913

July 1-31 _________ 1919, 1950

July 2 - Aug 1 ____ 1899* 1911, 1921, 1951, 1974, 2019, 2020

July 3 - Aug 2 ___ 1886, 1999

July 4 - Aug 3 ___ 1929, 1942, 1957, 2011

July 5 - Aug 4 ___ 1936, 1937, 1986, 1993, 

July 6 - Aug 5 ___ 1885, 1890*, 1928, 1934, 1982

July 7 - Aug 6 ___ 1879* 1899, 1981, 1989

July 8 - Aug 7 ___ 1905, 1955, 1967, 1992, 2008

July 9 - Aug 8 ___ 1954, 1960, 1987, 2007

July 10 - Aug 9 __ 1882, 1894, 1932, 1941, 1972

July 11 - Aug 10 __ 1870, 1924, 1927, 1930, 1931, 1943, 1968* 1979, 1983, 2006

July 12 - Aug 11 __ 1873, 1892, 1902, 2022

July 13 - Aug 12 __ 1893, 1896, 1917*, 1949, 1963, 1977, 1995, 1998

July 14 - Aug 13 __ 1980

July 15 - Aug 14 __ 1877, 1918, 1940, 2005

July 16 - Aug 15 __ 1926, 1975, 1985, 1988, 2016

July 17 - Aug 16 __ 1895

July 18 - Aug 17 __ 1990

July 19 - Aug 18 __ 1920, 2015

July 20 - Aug 19 __ 2002*

July 22 - Aug 21 __ 1937, 1944

July 23 - Aug 22 __ 1958, 1970

July 24 - Aug 23 __1939

July 25 - Aug 24 __1938

July 27 - Aug 26 __1947, 2009

July 29 - Aug 28 _ 1891

July 30 - Aug 29 _ 1871

July 31 - Aug 30 __2001

Aug 3 - Sep 2 ____ 1969

Aug 5 - Sep 4 ____ 1973

Aug 6 - Sep 5 ____ 1996

Aug 7 - Sep 6 ____ 1914, 1956, 1961

Aug 8 - Sep 7 ____ 1978

Aug 10 - Sep 9 ___ 1959

Aug 13 - Sep 12 __ 1884

(Aug 21 - Sep 20 1948 a secondary peak)

__________________

From the above it is clear that a large cluster of years are hottest from early July to early August. 

In 1991 intervals starting May 3 - June 2 averaged maximum of 80.0 + (this persisted to Aug 27 to Sep 26), the second earliest start for the 80+ season was 1962 (May 11 to Jun 10) but that summer ended a lot earlier as Aug 5 to Sep 4 was the last 80+ interval. 

The latest interval to average 80.0 or above was Sep 9 to Oct 8 1931, followed by Sep 7 to Oct 6, 1941 tied by 2005, then Sep 5 to Oct 5 1881. and tied fifth latest 1959, 1961 Sep 3 to Oct 2, then 1921 with Sep 2 to Oct 1. .. 2017 had 79.00 as late as Sep 11 to Oct 11. 

1895 began its 80+ season with May 21 to Jun 21, and ran to Aug 30-Sep 29 but there were late-summer gaps, no interval starting Aug 17 to 21 averaged 80+.

. 

[FPizz]

Shocked no one has brought up the central park sensor yet on page 13 of this thread.  Doh!

[Brian5671]

42 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Outside of Friday, will this be the first Saturday AND Sunday that it hasn't rained in months???

streak looks to finally end here-we've gone since 3/22 without a rainfree weekend...granted a few were .01 or .05 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did we have less trees in the 40s, 50s and 60s when all those 100+ readings and 7+ day heatwaves were happening (as well as years like 1993 and 1999) or was there overgrowth because of the higher rainfall totals we have now? Maybe it's a combination of both? And more rainfall also means more water retention by the foliage which also makes for a slower temperature rise.

I agree we need to get the equipment out of that area.

We also need to remove some of these trees, I notice we have a lot of parasitic trees that really do not belong here. Tree of *Heaven* being a case in point.

 

 

Absolutely. Just compare the old photos of the site from the recent ones. Most of those 100° readings from the 1930s into the early 1990s would have only been mid to upper 90s if the they had the same tree cover back then.

The strongest wind gust is still 78 mph set back in December of 1974 when the trees were much lower. So there could have been higher gusts in the interim but the tress could be interfering like with the temperatures.
 

 

 

[Sundog]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Shocked no one has brought up the central park sensor yet on page 13 of this thread.  Doh!

I'm working on an extensive post regarding the issue

[nycwinter]

since when are temps taken at airports like newark and laguardia really accurate  compared to central park..

[steve392]

Is the air quality alerts because of all the fire works smoke?

[winterwarlock]

So what's the deal with Chantals waste..is this a serious threat for heavy rain..surprised  this board is crickets

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

So what's the deal with Chantals waste..is this a serious threat for heavy rain..surprised  this board is crickets

models don't have all that much-maybe .50 to 1.00.   It will come down to how it interacts with an incoming cold front.    But seems like in and out-not sure where this days and days of rain is coming from.

-

[winterwarlock]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

models don't have all that much-maybe .50 to 1.00.   It will come down to how it interacts with an incoming cold front.    But seems like in and out-not sure where this days and days of rain is coming from.

That's what I'm worried about..models and mets have been all over the map this year...days that are forecasted less seem to ovrrperform and vice versa

[Wannabehippie]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Just get the equipment out of Central Park and the problem is solved.  Government needs to step in since NWS won't do a thing.

 

 

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why I advocate for the heliport (KJRB peaked at 105 in June).  Besides the heliport, we can use rooftop stations.  They would definitely be hotter than the shaded areas you speak of.

 

Wouldn't rooftop stations give us inaccurate readings due to elevation?

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

 

Wouldn't rooftop stations give us inaccurate readings due to elevation?

Rooftops are usually like driveways, much hotter than the grass surfaces.   

[psv88]

87 today

[SACRUS]

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 90
LGA: 88
TEB: 88 
PHL: 88
New Brnswck: 87
JFK: 86
TTN: 86
ACY: 86
BLM: 85 ** missing hourly/intra hours
ISP: 84

NYC: 84

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Im tired of this rain. Its like every late afternoon clouds up and rains...OK we get fri sat sun but you get my idea

 

Hasn't been a great summer for weather from Memorial Day on...yippee we get 3 days but it should be 6 days with rain chance after that

Higher dew points and more clouds with onshore flow mean more rain chances. So your area usually sees at least 30-40 days reaching 90° each season. But the chances of going 20 straight days reaching 90° like in 1988 when it was much drier without interruption are slim to none. But the overall 90° day counts in NJ are much higher than the 1980s and 1990s. Just no really long extended heatwaves. So a bunch of shorter heatwaves giving you more total 90° days than you used to get. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

 

Wouldn't rooftop stations give us inaccurate readings due to elevation?

Allot of would depend on just how high of a rooftop. I would love to see obs from the top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’. (Highest flat roof in nyc) 

Probably averages double the snowfall of the park. Not only a few degrees cooler due to height but also high enough to be out of the heat island near the ground.