Chicago Storm Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 i thought that this thread existed already, but apparently it does not. so, here we go... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Well, looks like after Monday the ridge will move east and then stall, setting up a ring of fire pattern for potentially the rest of the week next week. There are some differences as to where the exact stationary front sets up, however whatever areas that do end up underneath the ring could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain and potential flooding. These setups where there is a large ridge stalled on the E coast and a wide open GOM have caused major flood events in the past, such as a year ago when MN/IA/WI flooded while Detroit and points E experienced several days in the 90s. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we move into next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July. Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 11 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July. Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue. 0z wasn't the worst in the world but definitely could use a nice wide spread MCS to soak the area instead of the spotty pop up stuff it looks we'll be getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 12 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July. Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue. https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1939524075975581933 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 15 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July. Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue. Yeah, definitely need something widespread, getting awfully crunchy around here and just waiting to get bumped to "severe" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yeah, definitely need something widespread, getting awfully crunchy around here and just waiting to get bumped to "severe" imby. The numerous days above 90 with full sun definitely have sped things along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Medium-range models had been drying out through mid July, generally showing below average rain around here. However, we got the 2" event a few days ago and now the EPS is creeping back up again with precip across the region. With ridging in the nw and ne US, the upper midwest should be in a decent spot for moderate temps and regular rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Medium-range models had been drying out through mid July, generally showing below average rain around here. However, we got the 2" event a few days ago and now the EPS is creeping back up again with precip across the region. With ridging in the nw and ne US, the upper midwest should be in a decent spot for moderate temps and regular rain chances. What about the Great Lakes? A mean trough is usually no good around here if it’s just progressive cold fronts scouring moisture out. Need a fully stalled cut-off to plant itself over Minnesota or Wisconsin and pump the 70 degree dewpoints into here. Last time that happened was June 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 Imagine if storms develop in Minnesota on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 9 hours ago, MNstorms said: Imagine if storms develop in Minnesota on Tuesday. Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions. Dew points in recent years peak 80F+ in July in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 14 hours ago, Spartman said: That will feel nice. Too sticky for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 17 hours ago, Spartman said: A thing of beauty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: A thing of beauty 6-10 day: Not for long, according to the 8-14 day: The upcoming "cool" stretch next week may have to come with a price. NWS ILN is talking about a potential cutoff low for early next week. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad h5 ridge over srn U.S. weakens over Ohio Valley as a stationary front in the lower GTLks begins to move swd into CWA Tues night/early Wed. The boundary stalls in srn/south of CWA early Thurs, with h5 s/w energy topping it late Wed/early Thu. Storms will be likely over the region with these forcing mechanisms found in a very receptive, moist airmass. they should be most active from Wed afternoon through Thurs afternoon and die out in the evening. There are indications that it could be south of the CWA earlier in the day with little activity in the south ending closer towards noon. High pressure to the north and upper level ridging will keep a dry ne wind over the CWA through at least Sat. The center of the high and axis of the upper ridge will pass east through the CWA overnight Sat. Behind them, winds turn e and then se on Sun. GFS has an upper level cutoff low undercutting the exiting ridge, bringing precip to sw CWA Sun. European does not have cutoff upper low and brings a zonal wly flow behind the departing ridge, keeping any rain threat south of CWA. The end of hot and muggy looks to begin on Wed with some moderating temperatures, fall to below normal Thursday, and remain below normal through the end of the forecast. Highs Thu-Sun will be in the mid 70s nw to near/low 80s se. Lows for this time frame will be in the low-mid 60s. One exception is a cooler Fri night with mid 50s along/n of I-70 corridor, near 60 along Ohio River. If you're looking for a good dry stretch, it's safe to say that it's just not our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 I deem that I'm on the ring of fire as my rain is coming from storms; the few times I got steady it was less than 4mm and lasted a few hours this summer. The ground got wet Sat and now no rain forecast for 12 days, I extolled my 10-day in the other thread showing mainly sunny every single day, 2 days later its still showing this with the Euro to support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago for those looking for cooler, less humid weather, seeing some potential in 10 days or so. But before then a ridge noses in and we get some more ring of fire action 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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