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Summer 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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Well, looks like after Monday the ridge will move east and then stall, setting up a ring of fire pattern for potentially the rest of the week next week. There are some differences as to where the exact stationary front sets up, however whatever areas that do end up underneath the ring could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain and potential flooding. These setups where there is a large ridge stalled on the E coast and a wide open GOM have caused major flood events in the past, such as a year ago when MN/IA/WI flooded while Detroit and points E experienced several days in the 90s. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we move into next week. 

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11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July.  Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue.

0z wasn't the worst in the world but definitely could use a nice wide spread MCS to soak the area instead of the spotty pop up stuff it looks we'll be getting 

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15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July.  Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue.

Yeah, definitely need something widespread, getting awfully crunchy around here and just waiting to get bumped to "severe" imby. 

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Medium-range models had been drying out through mid July, generally showing below average rain around here.  However, we got the 2" event a few days ago and now the EPS is creeping back up again with precip across the region.  With ridging in the nw and ne US, the upper midwest should be in a decent spot for moderate temps and regular rain chances.

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17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Medium-range models had been drying out through mid July, generally showing below average rain around here.  However, we got the 2" event a few days ago and now the EPS is creeping back up again with precip across the region.  With ridging in the nw and ne US, the upper midwest should be in a decent spot for moderate temps and regular rain chances.

What about the Great Lakes?  A mean trough is usually no good around here if it’s just progressive cold fronts scouring moisture out.  Need a fully stalled cut-off to plant itself over Minnesota or Wisconsin and pump the 70 degree dewpoints into here.  Last time that happened was June 2021.

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9 hours ago, MNstorms said:

Imagine if storms develop in Minnesota on Tuesday.

 

cNykx0r.png

Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions.

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2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions.

Dew points in recent years peak 80F+ in July in Minnesota. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

A thing of beauty

6-10 day:
610temp.new.gif
610prcp.new.gif

Not for long, according to the 8-14 day:
814temp.new.gif

The upcoming "cool" stretch next week may have to come with a price. NWS ILN is talking about a potential cutoff low for early next week.
 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad h5 ridge over srn U.S. weakens over Ohio Valley as a
stationary front in the lower GTLks begins to move swd into CWA Tues
night/early Wed. The boundary stalls in srn/south of CWA early
Thurs, with h5 s/w energy topping it late Wed/early Thu. Storms will
be likely over the region with these forcing mechanisms found in a
very receptive, moist airmass. they should be most active from Wed
afternoon through Thurs afternoon and die out in the evening. There
are indications that it could be south of the CWA earlier in the day
with little activity in the south ending closer towards noon.

High pressure to the north and upper level ridging will keep a dry
ne wind over the CWA through at least Sat. The center of the high
and axis of the upper ridge will pass east through the CWA overnight
Sat. Behind them, winds turn e and then se on Sun. GFS has an upper
level cutoff low undercutting the exiting ridge, bringing precip to
sw CWA Sun. European does not have cutoff upper low and brings a
zonal wly flow behind the departing ridge, keeping any rain threat
south of CWA.

The end of hot and muggy looks to begin on Wed with some moderating
temperatures, fall to below normal Thursday, and remain below normal
through the end of the forecast. Highs Thu-Sun will be in the mid
70s nw to near/low 80s se. Lows for this time frame will be in the
low-mid 60s. One exception is a cooler Fri night with mid 50s
along/n of I-70 corridor, near 60 along Ohio River.

If you're looking for a good dry stretch, it's safe to say that it's just not our year.

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I deem that I'm on the ring of fire as my rain is coming from storms; the few times I got steady it was less than 4mm and lasted a few hours this summer. The ground got wet Sat and now no rain forecast for 12 days, I extolled my 10-day in the other thread showing mainly sunny every single day, 2 days later its still showing this with the Euro to support.

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