Summer 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

i thought that this thread existed already, but apparently it does not.

so, here we go...

[Geoboy645]

Well, looks like after Monday the ridge will move east and then stall, setting up a ring of fire pattern for potentially the rest of the week next week. There are some differences as to where the exact stationary front sets up, however whatever areas that do end up underneath the ring could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain and potential flooding. These setups where there is a large ridge stalled on the E coast and a wide open GOM have caused major flood events in the past, such as a year ago when MN/IA/WI flooded while Detroit and points E experienced several days in the 90s. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we move into next week. 

[cyclone77]

The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July.  Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue.

[A-L-E-K]

11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July.  Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue.

0z wasn't the worst in the world but definitely could use a nice wide spread MCS to soak the area instead of the spotty pop up stuff it looks we'll be getting 

[Spartman]

12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July.  Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue.

https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1939524075975581933

[SchaumburgStormer]

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past few runs of the Euro show <1" or rainfall for the QCA through mid-July.  Looks the drought monitor will be upping from abnormally dry to moderate drought by mid-month if trends continue.

Yeah, definitely need something widespread, getting awfully crunchy around here and just waiting to get bumped to "severe" imby.