6/16-6/18 Severe Weather Threat

[sbnwx85]

A nice multi-day setup across the region. Currently, a Tornado Watch is up for much of Minnesota. 

But most of us are focused on the 18th. There is good potential for a severe complex of storms to plow through the most populated areas of our subforum.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
   MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected
   on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes,
   and over a small part of the Mid Atlantic.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Wednesday, an upper trough will move from the central Plains
   across the mid to upper MS Valley, with a lead wave moving from MO
   into Lower MI. A surface low is expected from eastern IA into lower
   MI during the day, with a trough extending southwestward across IL,
   MO, and OK. A very moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of
   this main front with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints.

   To the east, a weak surface trough is forecast to develop over the
   Mid Atlantic, where strong heating will lead to an unstable air mass
   beneath modest southwest flow aloft around western Atlantic high.

   ...MI southwestward into OK...
   Scattered storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning from IA into MO
   and northeast OK, with remnant MCS activity. It appears the greatest
   ascent will move across northern areas coincident with the shortwave
   trough, from northern IL into lower MI. Here, shear profiles will
   likely support supercells, including hail and perhaps tornado
   threat. 

   Farther south, stronger instability and PWAT will exist along the
   front but with weaker shear. Substantial convection is expected with
   areas of damaging winds likely. Some of these storms may move south
   to southwest due to propagation. Given steep midlevel lapse rates,
   sporadic hail may occur as well.

[Brian D]

Tornado sig near the Iron Range area of NE MN, which is NW of me. 2 possible tornadoes in the area up that way with this one more defined. 

[Chinook]

Possible two tornadoes near Hibbing (one previous tornado by Aitkin MN)

[Brian D]

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Possible two tornadoes near Hibbing (one previous tornado by Aitkin MN)

N one going right over Eveleth. Hope it's not on the ground.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Some spinups in the far western metro per radar. Heading my way!

[sbnwx85]

Minnesota folks cashing in. Happy for you guys. Better than smoke.

[Chinook]

Tornado warning west of Chanhassen NWS Office

[OrdIowPitMsp]

14 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Tornado warning west of Chanhassen NWS Office

Fading to the southeast. No game for my back yard this round. 

[andyhb]

Wednesday could be pretty gnarly in the region especially if the 18z Euro or 00z NAM 3 km are on the right track.

[Chinook]

Wednesday night, multiple models show convection sweeping through Indiana/Michigan with a strong wind at 500mb.

 

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

*Sigh*. Guess I'll armchair chase an event off to the east after two days of armchair chasing events off to the west. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Wind driven enhanced introduced, could see a 10% TOR getting added if the nastier solutions look more likely 

[nwohweather]

9 hours ago, Chinook said:

Wednesday night, multiple models show convection sweeping through Indiana/Michigan with a strong wind at 500mb.

 

 

 

Those storms are going to explode when the cap breaks

[CheeselandSkies]

That MCV looks like a frickin' landcane on the 12Z 3K NAM. Too bad it can't be coming through 3-4 hours later.

[A-L-E-K]

yeah hot run

[Brian D]

17 hours ago, Brian D said:

N one going right over Eveleth. Hope it's not on the ground.

Nothing on the ground. Potential funnel near Hibbing, but that's all. Heavy rains of 2-3"+ with 4"+ reported around Virginia here in NE MN. 0.29" here in town with some thunder during the evening. 

[Chicago Storm]

tomorrow trended doa quickly for around here, with a quick trend towards poor timing of the mcv passage.

shame. we've reached the point where things ramped up for a month of quality activity from mid-june through mid-july last year, after a similarly slow start like this year. it doesn't look like a turn-around is in the cards just yet.

[pen_artist]

18z HRRR doesn't look as bad for Chicagoland showing some stronger convection firing off around noon and racing NE.

[SchaumburgStormer]

34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

tomorrow trended doa quickly for around here, with a quick trend towards poor timing of the mcv passage.

shame. we've reached the point where things ramped up for a month of quality activity from mid-june through mid-july last year, after a similarly slow start like this year. it doesn't look like a turn-around is in the cards just yet.

Yeah, 18z NAM is pretty lame. 

[KeenerWx]

Could miss just east but hanging onto hope for a solid boomer.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Had boomers for a bit, but .05” of rain. Desperately need a big time soaker 

[sbnwx85]

00z NAM and HRRR have explosive storm development just to my southwest around 21z tomorrow. Shades of 3/30/25 which produced 60-70 mph gusts and small tornadoes across N. Indiana and S. Michigan. The tree damage was significant across the area… and that was without leaves on the trees.

[King James]

What we thinking

[A-L-E-K]

28 minutes ago, King James said:

What we thinking

selling severe prospects this far north, clinging to some coma head rain hopes

your prospects obv better

[King James]

Thanks - got a little work from home, some potential storms, PCA tonight, camping tomorrow. Weather and life is good boys

[A-L-E-K]

humidity looks p locked in for a while so hopefully we've shaken off the doldrums again

[Harry Perry]

Wouldn’t be surprised by a trim of the northward most ENH based off MOST of the short range guidance. Just looks messy (with some embedded rotating updrafts) Better environment south of the MI/IN/OH border this afternoon. 

[sbnwx85]

Watch for some strong winds behind the line of storms today, particularly around the mesolow.

[sbnwx85]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

Wouldn’t be surprised by a trim of the northward most ENH based off MOST of the short range guidance. Just looks messy (with some embedded rotating updrafts) Better environment south of the MI/IN/OH border this afternoon. 

Yeah, 12z HRRR looks a little better but still messy. Hopefully we avoid too much crapvection before the main line moves through. Optimistically… I can hope whatever pops ahead of the line is rotating and interacting with the leftover boundaries from the storms that just came through here.

[CP_WinterStorm]

23 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Watch for some strong winds behind the line of storms today, particularly around the mesolow.

The last couple runs of the HRRR have been particularly ridiculous with that:

I just want some good rain before the heat arrives this weekend.