June 2025 Obs/Disco

[HoarfrostHubb]

What am I missing?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What am I missing?

 

what people want -

I've found over the years of this social media's engagement ( as has everyone probably - ) that people lead with one sentence pot shot posts that they either know are wrong, or are of want so badly that they are molding analysis to conform to those desires.  they then sit back and gauge other's responses in some fleeting hope that they'll get a reply that supports their perception as actually being possible. 

ha

[HoarfrostHubb]

But seriously, where are the mid 80s in N ORH county for Sunday?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s talk tomorrow!

Let’s live in the here and now

[dryslot]

Going to need a hoodie and pants the next couple days, What a roller coaster week.

[HoarfrostHubb]

June for ORH is a solid +2.9F.  Those 4 days in a row of +10 to +17 crushed it

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But seriously, where are the mid 80s in N ORH county for Sunday?

FIT and ORE will be pushing 85°

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But seriously, where are the mid 80s in N ORH county for Sunday?

Probably 82-84. But there be dragons there and people scared to forecast.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But seriously, where are the mid 80s in N ORH county for Sunday?

mid 80's may be tough but we will be warming the llvls through the day with a northwesterly flow so probably have to tack on 2-3F to the 2m progs. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

FIT and ORE will be pushing 85°

Yep. Easily.

[metagraphica]

Sun trying to break out here.  Currently 66 off a low of 60.  Misquamicut in the clear right now. Sunday looks like a beach day.  Summah!!

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Easily.

It'll by 88-ish at FIT

Light W to WNW flow and all guidance blend of +16C 850s with sigma level ( typical cloud height) RH's modeled 50% or less is ample sun - under apex max solar no less.   Elevated launch temperatures as well because Saturday's been correcting warm and warmer, and that's high confidence at this point.  If anything, 2 or 3 clicks above machine numbers is safe.  Now...if these modeled metrics change, okay - but as of now..

Folks are judging the day based on the cool feel now - this always happens.  Looking at a blizzard in the winter models when it's 55 degrees is a sure bet trigger for a cavalcade of neg-head downer posts about its unlikeliness.  But if in that moment the writer is typing it happens be -9 outside, the tenor in here is of course "too cold" and we'll end up too suppressed just the same

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup . I could sense it about 10 days ago. You could see it starting on modeling 

You also sensed '90s for yesterday how did that work out?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thank you Wiz and Tip for at least offering a reason.  I was just going based off of 2m temps

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thank you Wiz and Tip for at least offering a reason.  I was just going based off of 2m temps

82-84 for you.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

82-84 for you.

Why aren't the models picking that up?  I totally understand what John and Paul (but not George or Ringo) are saying.  Are they just lagging?

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX is still going for upper 70s here for both the zone forecast and the PnC...

Those should be tickling up

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Why aren't the models picking that up?  I totally understand what John and Paul (but not George or Ringo) are saying.  Are they just lagging?

Well they are modeling what they think. Perhaps there are some clouds...who knows. Sometimes there are situations where you sort of recognize a scenario like what Wiz and Tip described and take the over. Even for this heatwave I think Euro 2M temps were 99-100 at BOS when the high was 102. It's not egregious, but it matters. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Why aren't the models picking that up?  I totally understand what John and Paul (but not George or Ringo) are saying.  Are they just lagging?

Always add a few on to model output in summer 

[Typhoon Tip]

12z NAM has fully committed to positioning the warm front N of NH/MA border, tomorrow by 18z ..But it is in the process of diffusing in that position. 

Up near Brian may have a late day high -

Pretty impressive overall correction by the non-Euro cluster in favor of the Euro has taken place over the last 24 hours.  I recall mentioning to Scott I was on the fence at this time yesterday.  On one hand, climatology and years of scorn and sorrow at the hands of badly handled (models and man) BD air mass damming was too in favor of the GFS to ignore it.  On the other hand, the Euro was doing just that...completely ignoring, at like 2.5 days lead - a time in which it is seldom grossly wrong.  But ...in it's defense, it was different in the surface high pressure handling - in that it was more progressive in sliding it E out of the area faster.  This supplied less inhibition to displacing the warm front N... etc... 

Don't mean to speak as though it's already all happened ...but it's pretty clear where this is destined. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what Kevin wants -

I've found over the years of this social media's engagement ( as has everyone probably - ) that Kevin leads with one sentence pot shot posts that he either knows are wrong, or is of want so badly that he is molding analysis to conform to those desires.  He then sits back and gauge other's responses in some fleeting hope that he'll get a reply that supports his perception as actually being possible. 

ha

Few crucial edits.

[tamarack]

Low of 42 this morning, 52° lower than Tuesday's high.  (And possibly the coolest until September.)

[Ginx snewx]

COC day

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

After such a wet May, he’s  back with vengeance. 

Lol isolated. Had .35 yesterday alone

[MegaMike]

Embrace the NAM while you can, weenies.

Change is coming.

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

COC day

 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol isolated. Had .35 yesterday alone

Stein widespread.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Embrace the NAM while you can, weenies.

Change is coming.

Perhaps too bad for some ... I was Meteorologically raised in older tech, such as this,

954 
FOUS61 KWNO 271200
OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z JUN 27 25
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
ALB//847837 -0909 241204 67161111   BTV//802752 -0411 251203 64151208
06000687250 00706 231609 68181212   06000626954 02207 221811 66201208
12005929543 10199 221814 70141313   12000638540 00500 191717 69181211
18010919839 12297 191814 70131612   18005807749 02198 161921 70151612
24011967337 -1099 161713 72151812   24003957968 03397 141818 70141912
30000786558 02899 131908 74241813   30012895446 02298 111813 71201811
36001843241 00996 101812 76242011   36000874310 02498 091909 73231811
42009852625 00005 132913 72181614   42003823119 00206 112610 71191312
48000892414 -0210 153009 71151115   48000843920 -1310 142808 69151012
54000663735 -2107 143008 71211215   54000734331 -1007 142907 69181111
60000693923 -0405 143009 72221415   60000724141 -1106 143105 70201213
BOS//776234 -0710 251203 65171208   LGA//867657 00300 240608 70171313
06000676942 00211 241208 67191209   06000656964 -0501 231111 71201314
12000656453 -0312 231512 68181311   12000728441 -0400 221211 72181514
18000608142 -0601 211811 69171412   18002978326 02100 201207 72181713
24004979552 01099 191609 71161712   24003987538 00798 171711 75211914
30005968645 00497 152012 73201813   30000756838 00096 142209 76261915
36000916746 -0397 122213 75232114   36000786343 01095 121809 78272215
42000994619 01496 112312 74222112   42005897374 -9995 112709 77252215
48000832632 -0201 123011 74221815   48000713957 00403 143312 74231915
54000552619 -1704 113008 74241616   54000542143 -1504 143007 74251816
60000574144 -0105 123109 73241515   60000553438 -0701 132805 75271916
PHL//918868 01198 220710 72171714   IPT//986959 00697 221306 72161813
06000858363 -0999 211010 73191714   06004988444 02698 211609 72161613
12000948336 00298 210910 73191814   12007998343 -4798 201614 73181713
18003997718 01899 191207 74191814   18005998434 -1899 181611 73171713
24001986925 -0497 172109 75221914   24002998744 -0597 171810 74171913
30000676231 00294 142308 77292115   30001907857 03196 142007 76231913
36000665234 03293 122111 79302215   36032894735 02596 132803 76242013
42006896659 08293 122909 77262114   42005782248 02302 143408 74211714
48000886466 00497 153308 75241915   48000971740 00309 173408 71151814
54000442742 -1404 142909 75272016   54000752836 00103 163004 73211714
60000492040 01302 143009 75282116   60000655230 00299 152303 74241713

...which I find to be very useful.   Over the years, mere sight of these numerical values ...it's like "painting by numbers"   - in the mind, you draft very useful prognostic landscapes based upon what they mean and mean over time..etc... 

The NAM is what it is in terms of either popularity or verification... but losing above would be a loss -

[kdxken]

Seeing a lot of talk about a heatwave due to slowing global winds. He's an example 

 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stein widespread.

Only 2.14 for the month. Love to see it last throughout the summer