June 2025 Obs/Disco

[weatherwiz]

I'd watch that cell headed towards NW CT

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If you ever get the chance, go to the Bay side of the Cape in August. Especially Brewster to Welfleet. The water is so shallow that when the tide comes back in over those flats...it may as well be FL. It's pretty awesome. First Encounter beach in Eastham is one of my favorites. Nice lazy river there to go floating on as the tide comes in or out. 

Reid State Park (Maine midcoast) has a tidal pond that can reach 70+ on hot days, warmest just before the rising tide begins to mix in the 58° ocean water.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'd watch that cell headed towards NW CT

The taconic hills with their 2000' ridge lines ?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The taconic hills with their 2000' ridge lines ?

ifthat sucker can strengthen that may become a supercell

[Torch Tiger]

svr warning for that E NY/W MA cell. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

svr warning for that E NY/W MA cell. 

right on cue

[weatherwiz]

It's headed towards Springfield and I'm in Branford

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Reid State Park (Maine midcoast) has a tidal pond that can reach 70+ on hot days, warmest just before the rising tide begins to mix in the 58° ocean water.

One of my all-time favorite beaches. Except for the green heads.

[Torch Tiger]

VG/VG+ job thus far from mesos, clearly hit the 19-23z for west/central.  it's just too bad everything looks anemic, shallow. ":/

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

VG/VG+ job thus far from mesos, clearly hit the 19-23z for west/central.  it's just too bad everything looks anemic, shallow. ":/

poor mlvl lapse rates and the forcing still too far west. I'm wondering if maybe the pre-frontal trough can stay a bit stationary if that can allow for a bit of a boost in a few hours but it probsly shunts east 

[weatherwiz]

ughhh I think it has ticked east a bit...maybe be along the NY/CT border. well at least we'll start seeing more pop

[Chrisrotary12]

Cell near Waterbury headed west of Hartford is decent. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Cell near Waterbury headed west of Hartford is decent. 

probably producing hail west of Bristol 

[dryslot]

Eh, Watch hoisted.

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

poor mlvl lapse rates and the forcing still too far west. I'm wondering if maybe the pre-frontal trough can stay a bit stationary if that can allow for a bit of a boost in a few hours but it probsly shunts east 

Yeah, agree about those lapse rates; big-time bummer there and not sure NWS BOS or ALB discussed it at all. I was really expecting to see those dark greens? at least, 6.5 C/km or higher.  Should have checked upstream soundings like you did

OTOH stuff will pop more easily, less lid?  I suppose.  At least there's weaker stuff :/

[Chrisrotary12]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Eh, Watch hoisted.

Questionable

[dryslot]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Questionable

Very, Especially as you get here in the coastal plain and to the coast.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah, agree about those lapse rates; big-time bummer there and not sure NWS BOS or ALB discussed it at all. I was really expecting to see those dark greens? at least, 6.5 C/km or higher.  Should have checked upstream soundings like you did

OTOH the lower threshold for convection means stuff will pop more easily, less lid?  I suppose.  At least there's weaker stuff :/

Yeah we see stuff pop more easily but the trade off is weaker activity. This is why pre-frontal troughs hurt us more often than not...once we get the convective temp reached we start popping too early. This is one reason why those EMLs are so important. they keep a lid on things until the strongest forcing can arrive

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah we see stuff pop more easily but the trade off is weaker activity. This is why pre-frontal troughs hurt us more often than not...once we get the convective temp reached we start popping too early. This is one reason why those EMLs are so important. they keep a lid on things until the strongest forcing can arrive

and I'm sure lapse rates aren't a huge deal TBH, 6C or 6.5C/km very doable 90/70ish.  But you'd need slightly more dynamics, forcing, or shear.  probably two of those three, to offset not having that bouyancy.  Stronger forcing would have at least organized some of this stuff a bit more. 

Not great timing at all.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

and I'm sure lapse rates aren't a huge deal TBH, 6C or 6.5C/km very doable 90/70ish.  But you'd need slightly more dynamics, forcing, or shear.  probably two of those three, to offset not having that bouyancy.  Not great timing at all.

Yeah 6.5 C/KM is respectable. 

Of course steep lapse rates aren't a requirement for severe weather, they are when you're talking about the potential for widespread and high end severe weather but you can still get severe with weak lapse rates, its just more very localized and typically not high end. 

[SouthCoastMA]

40 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

VG/VG+ job thus far from mesos, clearly hit the 19-23z for west/central.  it's just too bad everything looks anemic, shallow. ":/

maybe you should've went to the beach. 

[kdxken]

 

[weatherwiz]

Probably going to go hang in North Branford for a bit in the field next to police station. It's a nice open spot. But that still may be just a bit too much into marine influence. Maybe I'll do Wallingford. 

[BrianW]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably going to go hang in North Branford for a bit in the field next to police station. It's a nice open spot. But that still may be just a bit too much into marine influence. Maybe I'll do Wallingford. 

Drive up to the top of Castle Craig in Meriden. 

The round stone observation tower of native trap rock was built by local stone masons in 1900.  It stands on East Peak with an elevation of 976 feet.  The tower is 32 feet in height and 58 feet in circumference

[512high]

93 Nashua, NH /dewpoint dropped from 73 to 70...............swamp ass

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, BrianW said:

Drive up to the top of Castle Craig in Meriden. 

Not a bad idea, but traffic may be miserable getting there lol

[weatherwiz]

eh screw it...just going to go home. nothing else looks like it is popping and the stuff going on is coming down 

[radarman]

it's super frustrating when the 18z HRRR and the 3km initialize totally off.  We already had cells in SNE at hr00 and by hour 1 both could already be tossed.  It's like radar data didn't make it in.

[ineedsnow]

84/68  

[512high]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

84/68  

Wow, cool area...you want to switch here? lol