June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Brian5671]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wow you dropped way faster, it was still 81 when I woke up this morning, now down to 76 here.  I'm keeping the a/c on until it drops into the 60s.

down to 66 here.    I doubt we get back to 70 today

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The other thing to watch going forward is the potential for a 10”+ rainfall event in a few hours or spread out over a month for someone in the area. Every La Niña since 1955 had one following the major 103°+ heat. While this isn’t a guarantee, it’s something to be aware of that happened in the past. 

La Niña years with 10”+ daily or monthly events following peak 103°+ heat

2021

2011

2005

1999

1955

The intensity of this heat does remind me of 2011 (the only other summer with multiple 102+ days at JFK), except a month earlier than that extreme heatwave.  Do you think if this had happened in late July it would have been even hotter and do you see a heavy rainfall month like what happened in 2011 after that extreme heatwave to repeat itself? If it's going to occur a month earlier, just like the big heat did, it would happen in July instead of in August.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The other thing to watch going forward is the potential for a 10”+ rainfall event in a few hours or spread out over a month for someone in the area. Every La Niña since 1955 had one following the major 103°+ heat. While this isn’t a guarantee, it’s something to be aware of that happened in the past. 

La Niña years with 10”+ daily or monthly events following peak 103°+ heat

2021

2011

2005

1999

1955

1955 and 1999 had drought busting tropical events ..... 1999 really stands out to me as the entire summer was scorching hot (the entire month of July) and droughty and then Floyd came calling in mid September and dropped over 10 inches of rain in NJ and eastern PA.

The longevity of the 1999 and 1993 super heatwaves are the only ones that challenge 1953.

[SACRUS]

 

79 / 70 as we goto a So-Cal marine layer the next 42 hours.

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow you dropped way faster, it was still 81 when I woke up this morning, now down to 76 here.  I'm keeping the a/c on until it drops into the 60s.

Upper 60s are now popping up on the north side of Queens/Nassau.

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Upper 60s are now popping up on the north side of Queens/Nassau.

68 at both my stations. Feels refreshing out after the heatwave. 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

68 at both my stations. Feels refreshing out after the heatwave. 

@LibertyBell is the warmest spot in Nassau in the mid 70s

Northern half of Nassau and now northern Queens is now in the upper 60s too 

[Sundog]

I should specify northeastern Queens

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

@LibertyBell is the warmest spot in Nassau in the mid 70s

Northern half of Nassau and now northern Queens is now in the upper 60s too 

now 74 here, it's dropping slowly but the best thing is that wind is cooling down my house.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I should specify northeastern Queens

we're so used to cloudy / rainy weekends, today feels like a Saturday

[LoboLeader1]

65 here. Humidity to return this weekend, radio met stated severe wx possible on Saturday. I'll take that with a grain of salt since most of the severe wx has been out to our west of late.

[Stormlover74]

Dropped to 79 here

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1948 had a wildly hot summer, if I remember correctly from what I read NYC had 3 100+ days (consecutively in July) and JFK had 2 100+ days (consecutively in August).  JFK may have hit 100+ in July too, but their period of record only began at the end of July so they didn't record that earlier heatwave in which NYC hit 100+ 3 days in a row?

 

The 3 consecutive 100 degree days in 1948 occurred during August 26-28.

[winterwarlock]

Back to awful dreary cloudy cool weather

 

Who wants this crap

[Poker2015]

59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

down to 66 here.    I doubt we get back to 70 today

Wow, that really dropped. I've been sitting at 82 for a couple hours now.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 3 consecutive 100 degree days in 1948 occurred during August 26-28.

Thanks Don, I got some clarity on this page (it coincides with the 2 straight 100+ days that happened at JFK during the same period.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/100degreedays

 

The only two periods of three consecutive 100+ days at NYC were in 1948 and 1993.

Both times JFK had two consecutive 100+ days.

NYC has had multiple separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+ on a few occasions.

1944 (two heatwaves in August), 1949 (once in July once in August), 1953 (July and August-September), 1954 (two heatwaves in July), 1955 (one in July and one in August), 1966 (a whopping three separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+, one in June and two in July).  And that was the last previous time it happened, NYC has not had multiple heatwaves peak at 100+ since the 3 heatwaves that did it in 1966.

More recently, JFK had two heatwaves peak at 100+ in 1983 (one in July and one in August and another one that peaked at 99 in September.) That was the only time they had that.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, I got some clarity on this page (it coincides with the 2 straight 100+ days that happened at JFK during the same period.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/100degreedays

 

The only two periods of three consecutive 100+ days at NYC were in 1948 and 1993.

Both times JFK had two consecutive 100+ days.

NYC has had multiple separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+ on a few occasions.

1944 (two heatwaves in August), 1949 (once in July once in August), 1953 (July and August-September), 1954 (two heatwaves in July), 1955 (one in July and one in August), 1966 (a whopping three separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+, one in June and two in July).  And that was the last previous time it happened, NYC has not had multiple heatwaves peak at 100+ since the 3 heatwaves that did it in 1966.

More recently, JFK had two heatwaves peak at 100+ in 1983 (one in July and one in August and another one that peaked at 99 in September.) That was the only time they had that.

 

post August 20th 100 degree heat is very rare which is why the super heatwave in August 1948 and August - September 1953 are so notable.  As is the August 20, 1983 100 degrees at JFK and the 99 on September 11, 1983.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1948 had a wildly hot summer, if I remember correctly from what I read NYC had 3 100+ days (consecutively in July) and JFK had 2 100+ days (consecutively in August).  JFK may have hit 100+ in July too, but their period of record only began at the end of July so they didn't record that earlier heatwave in which NYC hit 100+ 3 days in a row?

 

all three summer months were below average and july had a low in the 50s

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Wow, that really dropped. I've been sitting at 82 for a couple hours now.

Yeah, low was 75, but been sitting at 82 now for a bit

[forkyfork]

we all had midnight highs in the 80s so this little cool blip will only show up as one day in the records

[Stormlover74]

Clearing later or mostly cloudy all day?

[forkyfork]

sat-mon looks like our next potential heat wave

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all three summer months were below average and july had a low in the 50s

Even July 1936 which has the 106 record in Central Park finished below normal using today's fake averages. 

Our baseline is higher and we don't get those nice coolshots in between the heat episodes like we used to, or at least they are much more rare.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all three summer months were below average and july had a low in the 50s

August 26-28 had an extreme 3 day 100+ heatwave though

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Even July 1936 which has the 106 record in Central Park finished below normal using today's fake averages. 

Our baseline is higher and we don't get those nice coolshots in between the heat episodes like we used to, or at least they are much more rare.

it's mostly minimum driven, the highs and lows have become compressed 

[Sundog]

Many models yesterday had a stripe of mid 80s for 2PM today in NYC and western LI because they showed temps never really dropping below the upper 70s. Needless to say they all busted pretty badly. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The intensity of this heat does remind me of 2011 (the only other summer with multiple 102+ days at JFK), except a month earlier than that extreme heatwave.  Do you think if this had happened in late July it would have been even hotter and do you see a heavy rainfall month like what happened in 2011 after that extreme heatwave to repeat itself? If it's going to occur a month earlier, just like the big heat did, it would happen in July instead of in August.

 

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout.

I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

[dmillz25]

Down to 69 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Even July 1936 which has the 106 record in Central Park finished below normal using today's fake averages. 

Our baseline is higher and we don't get those nice coolshots in between the heat episodes like we used to, or at least they are much more rare.

the really hot summers began with 1944, the 1944s and 1950s were a cut above everything that happened before and since.  And a few of the 1960s, like 1966, has never been matched.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout.

I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

those droughts are why the summers of 1953 and 1966 have never been matched for 100+ heat