June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of the same pattern into late June. Another weekend with chances for rain but no washout. Saturday looks like the best chance for scattered convection. Drier on Sunday. Then mid 90s on Monday just inland from sea breeze front west of NYC. 

 

I don't know what a *washout* means (and why do tv mets use this word so much?) but to me a few hours of rain and cloudy all day is a washout.  Sunday is much better with no rain and some sunshine.

 

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Damn I don't remember it but it probably helps it was on the last day of the month.  The SST must've been over 70 by then 1994 heat was the hottest June weather I've ever seen (until this year that is.)

It hit here around midday. I was at work and couldn't believe how dark it got. My brother recorded it so its on vhs tape somewhere 

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

1994 had en epic storm around June 30th. One of the best I've ever seen

did it have a dark blue shelf cloud

[Stormlover74]

It was the 29th. Look at that line. You can see it blow up over eastern union cty where I was at the time

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was the 29th. Look at that line 

 

 

Was that the same year we had a big hailstorm in July?  in 1994 I went overseas near the end of June and didn't come back until August, but when I came back I remember reading newspaper reports about a big damaging hailstorm that hit the south shore of Nassau county and destroyed a bunch of cars outside a car dealership.  At least I think that was the year.  But the reports stated hailstones up to 5 inches in size, which I don't think is possible here.  Still, I was sad that I missed it.

Maybe it happened during this late June storm, although from what I read, I thought it was in July.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Damn I don't remember it but it probably helps it was on the last day of the month.  The SST must've been over 70 by then 1994 heat was the hottest June weather I've ever seen (until this year that is.)

I don't remember it because I was out of the country when it happened lol.  I left on a flight the day after the peak of the heat in 1994, I remember it hit 98 and I was gone the next day, wondering if I was going to miss 100 degree heat.  When I came back I found out it didn't hit 100 here while I was away lol.  So 1994 didn't measure up to the greatness of 1993 (which gave me a sense of relief.)

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that the same year we had a big hailstorm in July?  in 1994 I went overseas near the end of June and didn't come back until August, but when I came back I remember reading newspaper reports about a big damaging hailstorm that hit the south shore of Nassau county and destroyed a bunch of cars outside a car dealership.  At least I think that was the year.  But the reports stated hailstones up to 5 inches in size, which I don't think is possible here.  Still, I was sad that I missed it.

Maybe it happened during this late June storm, although from what I read, I thought it was in July.

I dont remember hail with that one so it could've been July 

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was the 29th. Look at that line. You can see it blow up over eastern union cty where I was at the time

 

 

i grew up in bayonne and a huge storm in the early/mid 90s is what got me into wx. it might be this one

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i grew up in bayonne and a huge storm in the early/mid 90s is what got me into wx. it might be this one

2.05 inches of rain between the 29- 30 , 1994 at EWR

[Brian5671]

Some hazy sun here as partial clearing works in from the Northeast

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i grew up in bayonne and a huge storm in the early/mid 90s is what got me into wx. it might be this one

There was the other big one in July of 97. Had 70+ mph winds across north and central nj

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

There was the other big one in July of 97. Had 70+ mph winds across north and central nj

Damn I was gone that summer too.  I stayed for all the really hot summers (1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002).

I was also here for the rainy summers of 1992 and 1996=\

Not here in July and August in 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998.

 

 

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

There was the other big one in July of 97. Had 70+ mph winds across north and central nj

i remember tracking that on twc and thinking it would miss and then it curved right into us

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i grew up in bayonne and a huge storm in the early/mid 90s is what got me into wx. it might be this one

I remember a really big one in June in 1995 that might have been it.  Happened at night and we had small hail and very heavy rain.

[steve392]

68 with a cool breeze, I can live with this til November! 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

68 with a cool breeze, I can live with this til November! 

Clouds are getting thinner around the area, temps might rise in response. 

The Sun is a beast this time of year

[nycwinter]

as perfect as a day can be in late june:)

[Wannabehippie]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool. The mercury could struggle to reach 70° in New York City. It should rise into the lower 70s at Newark.

The chilly highs will challenge the record for lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low at Central Park, JFK Airport, and Newark. The existing records are below:

Central Park: 71°, July 9, 1883
JFK Airport: 76°, July 23, 2019
Newark: 76°, July 23, 2019 

All of those readings followed lows of 80° two days earlier.

Central Park has had 72 lows of 80° or above; Newark has had 50; and, JFK Airport has had 16.

Temperatures will return mainly to the lower 80s for the remainder of June. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return in the near-term.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.073 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.1° (1.1° above normal). 

 

I would love to get a weekend pattern where both Saturday, and Sunday are warm, sunny.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I would love to get a weekend pattern where both Saturday, and Sunday are warm, sunny.

at least we'll have that for Sunday

 

[Wannabehippie]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NAM is finally getting replaced after they stop updating it in March 2017.

 

Public Information Statement 25-41

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD

845 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

To: Subscribers:

-NOAA Weather Wire Service

-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

-NOAAPORT

Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Richard Bandy

Acting Director

NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

Subject: Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North

American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be

Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26,

2025.

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is working towards replacing the North

American Mesoscale (NAM) model, the High Resolution Window (HiresW) aside

from the Guam domain, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and

the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) systems with the

implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in early 2026.

The NWS is seeking comments on this proposed change through July 26,

2025.

This transition to RRFS would provide an hourly updating modeling system

over a North America region at 3 km horizontal grid spacing, which,

combined with the model retirements, would greatly unify and simplify the

“convective scale” (approximately 3 km grid spacing) regional models

within the NWS operational modeling suite.

As a deterministic system running to 84 h, the RRFS would fully retire

the NAM, and nearly fully retire the HiresW (aside from the Guam domain).

As an ensemble forecast system, the RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS)

would fully retire the HREF and NARRE systems.

The deterministic RRFS generates full domain output at 3 km grid spacing,

and subset grid output over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and

Alaska (AK) (at 3 km grid spacing), and Hawaii (HI) and Puerto Rico (PR)

(at 2.5 km grid spacing). The RRFS will also provide output from a

separate 1.5 km RRFS fire weather run, with output provided over a 5 x 5

degree rotated latitude longitude region. Details of the RRFS output

grids are available in

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/rrfs_info/rrfs_grids.txt

Relative differences between RRFS output products and the proposed-to-be-

retired system products will be discussed individually by the modeling

Is there any link to this news? I want to be able to share it around.

Thanks.

 

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Is there any link to this news? I want to be able to share it around.

Thanks.

 

You can find it here.

[Wannabehippie]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

You can find it here.

Thank you!

 

[LoboLeader1]

65F & overcast here in the Berks. I'm getting ready to put the boat in the lake this weekend, but it's not looking good wx wise up here. 71 back in HPN.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a general steam bath pattern. 92/75 is no fun here either. 

Unfortunately, the 12z guidance wants to reload another 594+ ridge in about 10 days. I was hoping we could get a break from the 100° heat. But it looks like the pattern may have other ideas. Past instances of 103° to 105° heat didn’t usually have such a quick follow up of the ridge rebuilding. So maybe we can keep it more in the 95° to 100° range in early to mid-July rather than pushing 105° again. But who knows for sure with this climate. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

High so far here is 69

[SACRUS]

Just now, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the 12z guidance wants to reload another 594+ ridge in about 10 days. I was hoping we could get a break from the 100° heat. But it looks like the pattern may have other ideas. Past instances of 103° to 105° heat didn’t usually have such a quick follow up of the ridge rebuilding. So maybe we can keep it more in the 95° to 100° range in early July rather than pushing 105° again. But who knows for sure with this climate. 

 

 

 

The Euro op has 600 DM ridge center in MO/KS at H 288

[SnoSki14]

Could this be our CC induced summer from hell? Maybe

[donsutherland1]

JFK Airport and Newark saw their lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low.

JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019)
Newark: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019) 

Temperatures will return to the lower 80s for tomorrow and then middle and perhaps upper 80s for the remainder of June. Newark could be near or just above 90° on several days. In addition, there will be a risk of a shower or thundershower during the weekend. 

Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.013 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal). 

 

[rclab]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

Your article from which these pics came from has a line that supports my position:

"In Wales, a 10-year study looking at the presence of anxiety and depression in 2.3 million medical records, found that the greenest home surroundings were associated with 40% less anxiety and depression than those living in the least green areas." 

We aren't meant to live piled up on top of one another. 

 Over half century ago I thought as you do and wanted desperately to live as you describe. I didn’t want to live so that when I coughed a neighbor could reach over and pat my back. Now nearing the end of my eighth decade I’m better off living with all I need within a short walk. Perhaps the present inner city environment is a bit like our ancestors. Cave drawing becoming graffiti. Depression, anxiety, anger as side effects of a green less environment can not be disputed. I just wanted to imagine how nice it would be to see an urban environment with buildings that resemble forested mountains. Stay well and thank you for your response. As always ….