Winter 2025-26

[katabatic]

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

with variance due to climate change, I would argue that the large storms that do occur, even with lower frequency, would be bigger than the ones that we've classically seen. 2016 wouldn't have been quite as impactful 30 years ago

This is a legit question and not a troll. Also, might belong in banter, so if it needs a new home, feel free. But the question I have is the (perceived) lack of large east coast storms. Why? The theme of climate change seems to be an overall increase in storm frequency, an overall increase in precipitation. We have all seen the reports of incredible precipitation events around the globe. The oceans are on fire, so it certainly isn't a lack of potential energy. I'm an economist, not a met but it would seem like there would be more large storms (perhaps blinding rain vs snow) vs just a sheared out mess that seems to be the predominant storm type of late.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

40 minutes ago, katabatic said:

This is a legit question and not a troll. Also, might belong in banter, so if it needs a new home, feel free. But the question I have is the (perceived) lack of large east coast storms. Why? The theme of climate change seems to be an overall increase in storm frequency, an overall increase in precipitation. We have all seen the reports of incredible precipitation events around the globe. The oceans are on fire, so it certainly isn't a lack of potential energy. I'm an economist, not a met but it would seem like there would be more large storms (perhaps blinding rain vs snow) vs just a sheared out mess that seems to be the predominant storm type of late.  

I think they’re talking about snow storms specifically. The winter base state has gotten warmer meaning that we really need to thread the needle or else it’ll be too warm. psuhoffman can show you that  overall snow in the region is trending downward.

[katabatic]

16 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I think they’re talking about snow storms specifically. The winter base state has gotten warmer meaning that we really need to thread the needle or else it’ll be too warm. psuhoffman can show you that  overall snow in the region is trending downward.

I get that...what I don't understand is why aren't there big storms (of any kind, snow or rain) during the winter. With as much potential energy in the oceans as there is, you'd think the smallest perturbation would kick start a storm. Sure, we've seen some decent ones here and there, but nothing of note for nearly a decade. I am curious why given how much energy is available.

[WxUSAF]

The simple answer is we’ve been in a long -ENSO/-PDO cycle. Northern stream dominant with a weak subtropical jet. 

[winter_warlock]

On 8/14/2025 at 10:33 PM, Jebman said:

Frigid cold Texas sweet tea and lemonade, amid visions of a ice locked entire eastern section of America this winter, alongside frigid vodka cold northerly winds and deep drifting snow.

Yessss !!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

I get that...what I don't understand is why aren't there big storms (of any kind, snow or rain) during the winter. With as much potential energy in the oceans as there is, you'd think the smallest perturbation would kick start a storm. Sure, we've seen some decent ones here and there, but nothing of note for nearly a decade. I am curious why given how much energy is available.

A big problem has been the upper latitude pattern. 

This big ridge in the N. Pacific is -PNA

Here's the Winter sea-level pressure pattern with PNA (map is default positive, so what's happened lately is opposite of this map)

^Notice the low SLP off the east coast. -0.3 is pretty significant correlation. We've been seeing -PNA (North Pacific pattern), so there has been more tendency downstream for High pressure along the east coast and off the coast. 

That's just the Pacific.. in the Atlantic since 2011-2012, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO! In that time monthly NAO readings of >1.11 have been positive 18-0. 

Here's the SLP correlation with NAO, this map is default positive so in +NAO, like we have seen lately, it is like this

Again, very High pressure correlation. Add the Pacific and Atlantic upper latitude patterns together and you have 5x more likely to have east coast, or off the east coast, High pressure vs Low pressure in the Winter months. That's the pattern we've been in since 2011-2012 and more so since 2016-2017. 

A core reason for this is the decadal La Nina state that has been in place since 1997-1998. Some say -PDO, but the Hadley Cells are flexed in the southern Hemisphere too so it's been more Nino 3.4 driven, imo. 

Atlantic NAO is a decadal cycle, since the 1800s there have been 4 swings between positive and negative. They usually last 30-50 years at a time. We have been in the middle of a +NAO decadal cycle. 

Of course the jet stream is moving north with global warming, but it's been bad timing with regard to long term global pattern fluctuations. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thursday I will have been 75 or under for a high 4 straight days. Yesterday it didn't get out of the 60s. Hard to believe it won't be cold enough to snow in the Winter unless we stumble into a really bad upper latitude pattern. 

The cold next week (more days with highs in the 70s) is largely -EPO driven. Aug -EPO is actually a colder-Earth pattern, when you roll it forward into Jan-Feb the correlations are pretty high on the below average side generally

I was stressing the cold H5 over Greenland May-July. It's moderated now, but has been proceeded with some cooler indicator conditions. Last year there was cold H5 over Greenland May-Sept, this moderated in the Fall.. this year it's the same thing but maybe 1 month early on the moderation. Give me cold H5 earlier in the year, I don't care if it's +NAO (unless it's the Winter). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Down below 5190dm over the Arctic circle Aug 22-25

[brooklynwx99]

 

[MillvilleWx]

On 8/19/2025 at 3:32 PM, katabatic said:

This is a legit question and not a troll. Also, might belong in banter, so if it needs a new home, feel free. But the question I have is the (perceived) lack of large east coast storms. Why? The theme of climate change seems to be an overall increase in storm frequency, an overall increase in precipitation. We have all seen the reports of incredible precipitation events around the globe. The oceans are on fire, so it certainly isn't a lack of potential energy. I'm an economist, not a met but it would seem like there would be more large storms (perhaps blinding rain vs snow) vs just a sheared out mess that seems to be the predominant storm type of late.  

 

On 8/19/2025 at 5:27 PM, WxUSAF said:

The simple answer is we’ve been in a long -ENSO/-PDO cycle. Northern stream dominant with a weak subtropical jet. 

I think @WxUSAF hit the nail on the head. These bigger storms need general phasing pieces to really allow for a significant mid-latitude cyclone and we haven't seen too many due to the fast flow from the N/S and more chaotic nature of faster low amplitude waves. By the time they rendezvous, it's usually too far north in latitude to matter for these parts. We value blocking as that slows down the wave train and allows for greater amplitude in trough patterns as they migrate east of the Rockies. We've been on the outside looking in for years now, but hopefully some signs of the AMO shifting could bring back more periods of blocking across the North Atlantic. Until then, it's going to be tough to generate significant east coast storms at a higher frequency. Those that can develop could still be very strong, however so something to keep in mind when we do have signals for a major mid-latitude cyclone.  

[bncho]

53 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Those that can develop could still be very strong, however so something to keep in mind when we do have signals for a major mid-latitude cyclone.  

sigh.

[JenkinsJinkies]

So on the snow front, what could be an example of us “finding a new way to fail” this year?