Winter 2025-26

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

JB hinting to a December to Remember because of something something late hurricanes, something something, cold summer period, something something, probably also undersea seismic but I didn't get that far.  All that's left is to bring it home.

95-96 top analog yet?

[JenkinsJinkies]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

95-96 top analog yet?

PSU says no, as of now he's not expecting a non winter but snow will still be below normal.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We've had a hostile Arctic this late Spring/Summer so far

It's been pretty amazing to not break 2012's arctic ice melt record for 13 years now. Since 2012, here are the analogs to pattern:

Following Winter:

It seems to "snap back" in the Winter, with -AO

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We've had a hostile Arctic this late Spring/Summer so far

It's been pretty amazing to not break 2012's arctic ice melt record for 13 years now. Since 2012, here are the analogs to pattern:

Following Winter:

It seems to "snap back" in the Winter, with -AO

JB already foretold this a couple hours ago.  He didn't need all those fancy graphics though, just knowing hurricanes was enough for The Maestro.

I've got a good feeling, like last year I'm gonna go big on the snow totals contest.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's the Winter US Temp map

Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's the Winter US Temp map

Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here. 

I believe it 

[bncho]

What's winter looking like as of now? A slightly worse version of last year?

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, bncho said:

What's winter looking like as of now? A slightly worse version of last year?

 

[IronTy]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's the Winter US Temp map

Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here. 

All I needed to see was 2014....I just ignored the rest of the years lol.  

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 it’s not too surprising the mean anomaly you posted didn’t lead to snow most of the time. 
 

This look is decent but not really our snowy look 

this is the snowy season composite for BWI 

Note the negative in the TN valley. That’s the sweet spot. The pacific and high lat look is close but with the anomalies centered to our north it’s a cold dry look. 
 

We really want a negative anomaly centered to our SW on a winter mean to have a good chance of a snowy winter. 
 

Almost every decently big snowstorm has that. And it takes us multiple wasted good opportunities to score a hit most of the time. And we can’t get a snowy winter without hitting a couple times. So…it’s really hard to get a snowy winter without a negative on the seasonal means there. 
 

No mot impossible. It’s happened a few times. But betting on something that’s only happened a few times in 75 years isn’t a good bet. 90% of our snowy winters have a negative centered to our southwest for the season. 

[winter_warlock]

On 8/6/2025 at 7:06 PM, WxUSAF said:

95-96 top analog yet?

  If I recall..  he calls for a December to remember at least 4 out of every 5 Decembers lol

[winter_warlock]

On 8/6/2025 at 8:41 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's the Winter US Temp map

Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here. 

With the exception of 2014. All the others were below avg snowfall for me too

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 it’s not too surprising the mean anomaly you posted didn’t lead to snow most of the time. 
 

This look is decent but not really our snowy look 

this is the snowy season composite for BWI 

Note the negative in the TN valley. That’s the sweet spot. The pacific and high lat look is close but with the anomalies centered to our north it’s a cold dry look. 
 

We really want a negative anomaly centered to our SW on a winter mean to have a good chance of a snowy winter. 
 

Almost every decently big snowstorm has that. And it takes us multiple wasted good opportunities to score a hit most of the time. And we can’t get a snowy winter without hitting a couple times. So…it’s really hard to get a snowy winter without a negative on the seasonal means there. 
 

No mot impossible. It’s happened a few times. But betting on something that’s only happened a few times in 75 years isn’t a good bet. 90% of our snowy winters have a negative centered to our southwest for the season. 

What I notice most is how backed up the mid-latitude jet is, as there are 3 regions with lower 500mb heights than the warmth to the north. When I mapped DC and Baltimore's top snowfalls/snowfall months/snowfall seasons, the same thing is true.. there are 3 areas of lower heights than even the -AO/-NAO +500mb heights to the north. This tells me that general -H5 is more important than having Polar blocking. I think the problem with my analogs is that the northern ridge is too far north: over 90N. 90N puts a mean trough at 45N, but not as much 39N. We need classic Greenland/Davis Strait blocking to do better. Unfortunately with Arctic ice melt, it's something that reverses 100% the following Winter, and that's centered 90N. I think this is why the new Euro seasonal has ridging/blocking centered at 90N. 

[winter_warlock]

Got me a new complete weather station coming tomorrow..   looks to be a lot more accurate that my last one  ... opinions?

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

  If I recall..  he calls for a December to remember at least 4 out of every 5 Decembers lol

Well you remembered…

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What I notice most is how backed up the mid-latitude jet is, as there are 3 regions with lower 500mb heights than the warmth to the north. When I mapped DC and Baltimore's top snowfalls/snowfall months/snowfall seasons, the same thing is true.. there are 3 areas of lower heights than even the -AO/-NAO +500mb heights to the north. This tells me that general -H5 is more important than having Polar blocking. I think the problem with my analogs is that the northern ridge is too far north: over 90N. 90N puts a mean trough at 45N, but not as much 39N. We need classic Greenland/Davis Strait blocking to do better. Unfortunately with Arctic ice melt, it's something that reverses 100% the following Winter, and that's centered 90N. I think this is why the new Euro seasonal has ridging/blocking centered at 90N. 

True. But keep in mind the heights in my plot are being skewed lower by some of the older years being measured against today’s means. The same pattern as say a 1958 or 1960 wouldn’t produce nearly as negative an anomaly today (by 1960s standards) and a might more positive anomaly over the high latitudes as well. Of course we could argue whether the same pattern would even produce similar snow now given the mean heights have increased significantly. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Got me a new complete weather station coming tomorrow..   looks to be a lot more accurate that my last one  ... opinions?

I have one of those. It's a good Station overall. Accurate T, RH, Rain, Solar. 14 second updates not bad for budget Station. Biggest con is Windspeed runs low the higher the Winds, at least with mine. Customer support is good. I also have a Logia 7-1 . It has been very accurate overall. It was right with my Davis irt accuracy. T Sensor failing after 3 year's.

[winter_warlock]

14 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I have one of those. It's a good Station overall. Accurate T, RH, Rain, Solar. 14 second updates not bad for budget Station. Biggest con is Windspeed runs low the higher the Winds, at least with mine. Customer support is good. I also have a Logia 7-1 . It has been very accurate overall. It was right with my Davis irt accuracy. T Sensor failing after 3 year's.

 Nicee I appreciate the input!!