2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[stormtracker]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I now believe that Invest 94L is a bona fide threat to the U.S. East Coast. 

Still, there is enormous uncertainty regarding the intensity and track of what is likely to become Imelda in the coming days. 

First, let's take a look at Humberto, which will play a critical role in the track of 94L. Although still sheared with the center likely west of the deeper convection, this tropical storm is on a clear organizing trend. 

The spacing between Humberto and 94L has been a point of discussion for days now. How close these two get will determine whether there will be a binary interaction. 

The GFS, which after sniffing out the potential for TC development in the SW Atlantic then kind of got lost in trying to consolidate the two waves, has clearly trended toward the Euro--to the extent you can with this much uncertainty in the setup. These are the last 5 GFS runs. 

Note how the trend has been two-fold. First, there is the obvious change that makes 94L stronger. That decreases the likelihood that it is absorbed by Humberto and given an escape route OTS. The second change is the spacing. It's subtle, but can be seen easily. A stronger and more organized 94L would likely have the outflow necessary to keep Humberto at bay. 

On the Euro, you see a similar trend with regard to spacing. Note how the escape routes of 1) Humberto and 2) NW flow in New England and SE Canada are blocked. These are the last 3 runs--not including this morning's 06z op run which continues the trend. 

The spacing difference is more than enough here to limit the impact of Humberto. 

Are we guaranteed a SE coast hit? Not at all. There are a lot of nuances remaining, including how quickly Humberto intensifies and its forward speed, the amplitude of the ridge and how it develops, and the amplitude of the cutoff over the CONUS. 

It is very clear, however, that 94L is poised to develop, and it poses a risk to at least the SE coast with regard to a direct hit, with possible impacts further north depending on track. 

 

SC, you in danger girl.

Give me the remnants and deluge.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

SC, you in danger girl.

Give me the remnants and deluge.

 Amen brother!!  I'll take some wind and a nice  deluge!!!!

[dailylurker]

The gfs holds. It insists 94L swamps the SE while we smoke cirrus. Come on Euro!

[LP08]

12z GFS shows a weaker Umberto and stronger future Imelda through 72.  Has more rain Saturday Night into Sunday than 6z...

[LP08]

Pretty cool trends...unfortunately gets stuck in SC 

[WxWatcher007]

Yup building ridge to the north just traps it. Of course, that’s the furthest out and least confident part of the forecast. 

[LP08]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup building ridge to the north just traps it. Of course, that’s the furthest out and least confident part of the forecast. 

Crazy part is that's Monday!  Went from no storm at all at 12z yesterday to a Cat 1-2 landfall coming in 3.5 -4 days.  I don't envy forecasters.  What a very complex and tricky set up with the different interactions.

 

I know the forecast discussions have been harping it but for the general population, could be quite a shock to wake up to hurricane watches potentially Saturday morning.

[anotherman]

Humberto with some deep convection recently.  Hurricane status can't be far away.

[Weather Will]

ICON and Canadian at 12Z do the Fujiwhara and twirl the system(Imelda to be) around Humberto and out to sea.

[winter_warlock]

12z CMC. Combines the 2 tropical storms...

 

[Weather Will]

At 12Z AI has Imelda to be approaching SC coast and then swirls around and heads north brushing the coastal areas from Hatteras northward.

 

[LP08]

12z Euro into Wilmington, NC. Not much rain for the Saturday Night - Sunday morning deal but better trajectory for impacts from Imelda.  

[Weather Will]

At 12Z EURO has Imelda to be hitting SC coast and then stalling out keeping heaviest rain south of DC. (48 hour precip totals for midweek.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro keeps the bulk of precip south of I-66. Looks like a Hurricane Matthew redux for the Carolinas?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ensembles for Tuesday at 12Z. GEFS ,CMC, Euro, and AI.

[stormy]

War between the models.  

GFS, 50 mi. north at 12z in western Carolina's but still less than 1.0" for Augusta.   

ECMWF a little north at 12z.  Augusta QP increased about 1.0".    Now 3.84"

[WxWatcher007]

This could really be a prolific rainmaker if it gets trapped under the ridge. 

[yoda]

12z euro would be a yikes rainfall total wise from NC into C VA 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z euro would be a yikes rainfall total wise from NC into C VA 

Agreed. A Widespread 4" - 9" of rain across North Carolina would be significant.

[WxWatcher007]

First time all season this thread has been hot lol

[AlexD1990]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This could really be a prolific rainmaker if it gets trapped under the ridge. 

In an area that needs it the least. Last thing we need these days is a Helene redux.

[Weather Will]

NHC at 2pm:

Disturbance 1: 90% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days

As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025... Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos  Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the  wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast  Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when  it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late  Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or  northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos  Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this  system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds  are likely across that region during the next couple of days.  While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and  intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm  surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are  increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of  the system.  * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Looks like another big rain event for the MA goes bust. Is a widespread soaking rain with no “winners and losers” too much to ask?

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Looks like another big rain event for the MA goes bust. Is a widespread soaking rain with no “winners and losers” too much to ask?

We'll have plenty of those this winter. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We'll have plenty of those this winter. 

That’s assuming this is the time we finally have the floodgates open after the Niña breaks instead of the dry pattern injecting steroids against all logic.