2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[stormtracker]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I now believe that Invest 94L is a bona fide threat to the U.S. East Coast. 

Still, there is enormous uncertainty regarding the intensity and track of what is likely to become Imelda in the coming days. 

First, let's take a look at Humberto, which will play a critical role in the track of 94L. Although still sheared with the center likely west of the deeper convection, this tropical storm is on a clear organizing trend. 

The spacing between Humberto and 94L has been a point of discussion for days now. How close these two get will determine whether there will be a binary interaction. 

The GFS, which after sniffing out the potential for TC development in the SW Atlantic then kind of got lost in trying to consolidate the two waves, has clearly trended toward the Euro--to the extent you can with this much uncertainty in the setup. These are the last 5 GFS runs. 

Note how the trend has been two-fold. First, there is the obvious change that makes 94L stronger. That decreases the likelihood that it is absorbed by Humberto and given an escape route OTS. The second change is the spacing. It's subtle, but can be seen easily. A stronger and more organized 94L would likely have the outflow necessary to keep Humberto at bay. 

On the Euro, you see a similar trend with regard to spacing. Note how the escape routes of 1) Humberto and 2) NW flow in New England and SE Canada are blocked. These are the last 3 runs--not including this morning's 06z op run which continues the trend. 

The spacing difference is more than enough here to limit the impact of Humberto. 

Are we guaranteed a SE coast hit? Not at all. There are a lot of nuances remaining, including how quickly Humberto intensifies and its forward speed, the amplitude of the ridge and how it develops, and the amplitude of the cutoff over the CONUS. 

It is very clear, however, that 94L is poised to develop, and it poses a risk to at least the SE coast with regard to a direct hit, with possible impacts further north depending on track. 

 

SC, you in danger girl.

Give me the remnants and deluge.

[winter_warlock]

In regards to Invest 94. NWS is waiting on NHC which is in a wait and see mode...  Latest from Charleston S Carolina. NWS..

 

The forecast becomes exponentially uncertain into early next
week as a complicated set up begins to take shape over the
southeastern states and adjacent western Atlantic waters. The
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor invests 94L in
the western Atlantic for potential tropical development over the
next 7 days. TS Humberto formed in the late afternoon hours
Wednesday, with models struggling to agree on track/intensity,
especially as majority of guidance has it interacting with
invest 94L which further complicates the forecast. For now, The
extended forecast will remain closely monitored over the next
several days.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

SC, you in danger girl.

Give me the remnants and deluge.

 Amen brother!!  I'll take some wind and a nice  deluge!!!!

[dailylurker]

The gfs holds. It insists 94L swamps the SE while we smoke cirrus. Come on Euro!

[LP08]

12z GFS shows a weaker Umberto and stronger future Imelda through 72.  Has more rain Saturday Night into Sunday than 6z...

[LP08]

Pretty cool trends...unfortunately gets stuck in SC 

[WxWatcher007]

Yup building ridge to the north just traps it. Of course, that’s the furthest out and least confident part of the forecast. 

[LP08]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup building ridge to the north just traps it. Of course, that’s the furthest out and least confident part of the forecast. 

Crazy part is that's Monday!  Went from no storm at all at 12z yesterday to a Cat 1-2 landfall coming in 3.5 -4 days.  I don't envy forecasters.  What a very complex and tricky set up with the different interactions.

 

I know the forecast discussions have been harping it but for the general population, could be quite a shock to wake up to hurricane watches potentially Saturday morning.

[anotherman]

Humberto with some deep convection recently.  Hurricane status can't be far away.