May Medium/Long Range

[stormy]

The qp projections for next week will change at least 12 times in the next 6 days.

What seems to be the  sweet spot at this time will probably change during the next 48 hrs.

Lets don't repeat the normal winter mistakes.

The huge potential shift is that in conflict with usual patterns, low pressure surface and aloft will dominate instead of high pressure.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 12K NAM...more to come a NAM Watch is in effect!

[BlizzardNole]

Those qpf maps look pretty and I am hoping!  April's almost over and I have just 5.7 inches on the year -- parents in Calvert have 13.5

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

The qp projections for next week will change at least 12 times in the next 6 days.

What seems to be the  sweet spot at this time will probably change during the next 48 hrs.

Lets don't repeat the normal winter mistakes.

The huge potential shift is that in conflict with usual patterns, low pressure surface and aloft will dominate instead of high pressure.

With snow there are more things that can go wrong that don’t apply this time of year.

[Weather Will]

GFS caved to EURO...WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z at 8am Sunday.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS rain totals through day 7.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS rain totals through day 7.

Isn't that the 12z Euro?

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Isn't that the 12z Euro?

Thanks, just fixed it.

[high risk]

Looking great for a big soaking later in the weekend into at least early next week.    Note that there is a separate thread for this event.

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Thanks, just fixed it.

Niiiice! FINALLY no 95 s/e gradient

[stormy]

7 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With snow there are more things that can go wrong that don’t apply this time of year.

Precipitation is precipitation, winter or summer when looking 1 - 7 days into the future.  The greater the expected sum total, the greater the error factor.

The WPC has already changed significantly in the past 20 hrs. with qp amounts for the next 7 days.