May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[jbenedet]

Tbh the mid level synoptics are nuclear for May 31. If this had even a slight tropical connection it would be a doozie.

Gonna be flirting with 970's as it passing our region. Pretty damn difficult to do this time of year without the tropics involved.

[jbenedet]

Verbatim we are probably looking at 2-5"; (6" locally) of rain collocated with the mountainous areas of the far interior. Berks, southern greens, monads look like hardest hit areas.

[kdxken]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone in NW CT to western MA and SW NH is going to get inches of rain.

"This will be a soaker with the most rain west where there can be 1-3”+. The least across eastern MA where likely 0.50” will do it. I’m watching the trends…the latest HRRR has pushed heavier rain a bit farther east. "

 

Eweather

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

"This will be a soaker with the most rain west where there can be 1-3”+. The least across eastern MA where likely 0.50” will do it. I’m watching the trends…the latest HRRR has pushed heavier rain a bit farther east. "

 

Eweather

That convection will drop over 1" in spots in ern areas for sure. 

[kdxken]

On 5/28/2025 at 8:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah tonight is minor and Saturday trending north 

Saturday still going north?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Saturday still going north?

Yup. Whole thing has bumped NW with heavy rains 

[CoastalWx]

Best is east Saturday. To the east my brother, to the east.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Best is east Saturday. To the east my brother, to the east.

 

 

Should be ok here from mid -late morning until later day 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be ok here from mid -late morning until later day 

Tricky there. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I'm not sure how well it will work with the 20' ceilings and 4,000 sqft of open space

good point, try running a couple of them. They really work well, I have one in my 500sf garage that dries it out in no time

[kdxken]

A story for wiz, was just cutting a tree and this thing was on my neck. Thought it was a bird at first.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Warmer Tues+ on these GFS/CMC runs

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A story for wiz, was just cutting a tree and this thing was on my neck. Thought it was a bird at first.

 

yikes...looks like a brown recluse or some cousin of it

[Typhoon Tip]

Ukmet's a 90 Wed-Thur

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ukmet's a 90 Wed-Thur

Second half of the week is shaping up to be on the hot/humid side. The signal for that cut-off low is fading and we are going to turn the flow WSW or SW with the front approaching and eventually stalling somewhere within the region. Going to be lots of mid-to-upper 80's to lower 90's in the torch spots if we mix fully. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Second half of the week is shaping up to be on the hot/humid side. The signal for that cut-off low is fading and we are going to turn the flow WSW or SW with the front approaching and eventually stalling somewhere within the region. Going to be lots of mid-to-upper 80's to lower 90's in the torch spots if we mix fully. 

Seems to be the case,yup.  

 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems to be the case,yup.  

 

Looking back at this, I'm not sure there was ever much support for such a feature really and not sure it synoptically made sense. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We whistle 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

yikes...looks like a brown recluse or some cousin of it

its a nursery web spider..very common..and not a threat to you (except in your upcoming nightmares). 

[SouthCoastMA]

Wednesday/Thursday do look hot on most guidance. Time to install this weekend

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

its a nursery web spider..very common..and not a threat to you (except in your upcoming nightmares). 

what the heck kind of a name is that? 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

what the heck kind of a name is that? 

They tend to dangle above you from the ceiling and watch while you sleep, sorta of like one of those dangling crib toys you find in a nursery

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

They tend to dangle above you from the ceiling and watch while you sleep, sorta of like one of those dangling crib toys you find in a nursery

Wiz is never going to sleep again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Wiz is never going to sleep again.

Or have kids. It’s just too dangerous out there. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if this is late in the year/climo for snow on June 1 at up there.   I wonder if it is late in the year/relative to CC climo for that matter

[Typhoon Tip]

next week may or may not offer a heat wave... I figure for the 80s mid week, but the ceiling is higher so we may manifest that more obvious as we get closer.  we'll see.

12z GFS ends the run with big heat implication. Full bird SW/Sonoran release event... talkin 576 to 581 thickness from New Mexico to Boston Harbor.   360+ hours, so nothing can go wrong with that of course  heh

[bristolri_wx]

18 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

 

 

days n days n days

Still not sure what I was quoted for/getting called out on there... weather this week wasn't terrible we had a couple of nice days, but it wasn't that great either.  Lots of overcast conditions, rained a few days, and now we have a 990 low tracking up the Appalachian's into the CT River for Saturday.  Even after the low passes it's looking like drizzle and breezy conditions in it's wake until it pulls much farther north for Eastern New England.  If this is COC - get to Planned Parenthood for a screening...  Looks like the pattern will break next week (thankfully)...

[vortex95]

There are these wx sayings, "similar patterns breed similar storms" and "when it's good, it can be REAL good!"

First, I will get this out of the way,  CoastalWx is once again STEAMED this did not happen in this past winter!

This storm is almost a carbon copy of the last storm, except everything is ~100 mi NW.

 

The 500 trough evolution is ideal.  The trough over the Mid-Atlantic is at first neutrally titled, and does a full 90 deg swing negative as it moves across New England.  That's how you do it for a classic!  The last storm did this as well.

982 mb for a central pressure over New England is very impressive for late May.  I can not recall a low this deep here this late, esp. over land.
 

Embedded tstms look to be widespread, even the cool sector of the storm. Few hundred CAPE is common across the region on the models as the storm winds up.  That does not happen often w/ a Nor'easter, but given it is late May, by default you will have some CAPE around.

Big R+ potential in western sections w/ the deformation.  Can it look any more classic on the HRRR forecast radar valid 18z Sat?

 

Snow once again likely in the mtns (above 4000 ft this time) and probably several inches on Mt Washington as a rather cold air mass for this time of year flushes in behind the storm.

 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

There are these wx sayings, "similar patterns breed similar storms" and "when it's good, it can be REAL good!"

First, I will get this out of the way,  CoastalWx is once again STEAMED this did not happen in this past winter!

This storm is almost a carbon copy of the last storm, except everything is ~100 mi NW.

 

The 500 trough evolution is ideal.  The trough over the Mid-Atlantic is at first neutrally titled, and does a full 90 deg swing negative as it moves across New England.  That's how you do it for a classic!  The last storm did this as well.

982 mb for a central pressure over New England is very impressive for late May.  I can not recall a low this deep here this late, esp. over land.
 

Embedded tstms look to be widespread, even the cool sector of the storm. Few hundred CAPE is common across the region on the models as the storm winds up.  That does not happen often w/ a Nor'easter, but given it is late May, by default you will have some CAPE around.

Big R+ potential in western sections w/ the deformation.  Can it look any more classic on the HRRR forecast radar valid 18z Sat?

 

Snow once again likely in the mtns (above 4000 ft this time) and probably several inches on Mt Washington as a rather cold air mass for this time of year flushes in behind the storm.

 

Looks impressive… maybe even anomalous!

[monadnocks]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if this is late in the year/climo for snow on June 1 at up there.   I wonder if it is late in the year/relative to CC climo for that matter

The closest location I can find to possible snow is Radisson, QC. Maybe someone has the need for an epic road trip? I just imagine the convo at Customs. "Business or pleasure?" "Pleasure! I haven't had any snow since April and it's forecasted for northern Quebec."