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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

What a morning though. Nary a cloud. 

image.jpeg

revenge? 

you may be 77 F today while we down here as nearby as rt 2 are just under the edge - in fact, I can see the clear sky along the n horizon. not even.. just below the tree line.   but the sun is a dim ball, at times totally obscured overhead and sat confirms the predicament.  if i were Kevin I'd be reporting this 'yet another day above guidance with sun' because of my committed razor sharp adherence to objective reality ..

it's trying to be sort of mild.  by strict numbers ... we may even be above normal relative to hour of the day.   59 here at 9:10am probably should be more like 54 at this time of year or something?   i don't know if climate drills down to the hour that way though.  might be an interesting project for an asperger case...

but yesterday we bumped 73 ... not likely going that warm if we don't erode back. 

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So according to Copernicus ERA5 data, May 2025 continues the incredible streak since 2023 of the world being under a veritable climate rotisserie lamp.   As recently as May 9, 2025 ( last week...), that day came in as the hottest May 9th since 1940 - before which is beyond their historical event horizon so who knows.  

Yet, despite that warm soothing predicament, the Euro is doing this as near by in time as 132 hours from 00z:

image.png.1f46c774de89e94ba7c5dfbf6f33cdd8.png

This has been going on for 20 something years ... whence yeeeah, we have above normal like everywhere else, but we are never AS above normal as everywhere else - apparently so.  Plus this shit above.  This above is yet another snow in May if it occurs.  It counts.  It's in our Meteorological neighborhood.  It's yet another in these bizarre ( no doubt attribution -related some how, some way )   latter spring North America seasonal rollback patterns we've been observing.  I've seen packing pellets and or actual snow events in ...shit, lost count how many Mays since 2000.  In the decades prior ... almost never. 

Something about particularly the eastern continent/mid latitudes, is getting picked on in the total hemispheric circulation tendencies, as a cold dumpster.  We'll see if above makes it through the deamplitude gauntlet at D5.. but just the fact that it's showing up in the model physics is confirmation enough.

And Ineedsnow ... if you would please resist the urge to place a Like or 100% emoji in the bottom right corner of this post.  It is not something that is intended to jerk off your obsession for demolishing summer, or to be celebrated because it leans in that direction.   Something is wrong. 

 

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So according to Copernicus ERA5 data, May 2025 continues the incredible streak since 2023 of the world being under a veritable climate rotisserie lamp.   As recently as May 9, 2025 ( last week...), that day came in as the hottest May 9th since 1940 - before which is beyond their historical event horizon so who knows.  

Yet, despite that warm soothing predicament, the Euro is doing this as near by in time as 132 hours from 00z:

image.png.1f46c774de89e94ba7c5dfbf6f33cdd8.png

This has been going on for 20 something years ... whence yeeeah, we have above normal like everywhere else, but we are never AS above normal as everywhere else - apparently so.  Plus this shit above.  This above is yet another snow in May if it occurs.  It counts.  It's in our Meteorological neighborhood.  It's yet another in these bizarre ( no doubt attribution -related some how, some way )   latter spring North America seasonal rollback patterns we've been observing.  I've seen packing pellets and or actual snow events in ...shit, lost count how many Mays since 2000.  In the decades prior ... almost never. 

Something about particularly the eastern continent/mid latitudes, is getting picked on in the total hemispheric circulation tendencies, as a cold dumpster.  We'll see if above makes it through the deamplitude gauntlet at D5.. but just the fact that it's showing up in the model physics is confirmation enough.

And Ineedsnow ... if you would please resist the urge to place a Like or 100% emoji in the bottom right corner of this post.  It is not something that is intended to jerk off your obsession for demolishing summer, or to be celebrated because it leans in that direction.   Something is wrong. 

 

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honestly I wish the rain would stop.. if we could keep 70's and sunny I would be happy.. I just cant stand heat and there's no need for it. unless its record breaking heat or cold there's no need for it.. and that would only be for the wow factor

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43 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

im sure we will have 70 plus dews and 90s  soon enough and all of you will be jumping for joy while I'm crying for my mama :lol:

We are part of the few people here that absolutely loves winter!!....many people here love snow but they do not love winter..

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

honestly I wish the rain would stop.. if we could keep 70's and sunny I would be happy.. I just cant stand heat and there's no need for it. unless its record breaking heat or cold there's no need for it.. and that would only be for the wow factor

I hope you realize ( i'm sure you do.. ) that I'm just messin' with you

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23 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

We are part of the few people here that absolutely loves winter!!....many people here love snow but they do not love winter..

That must be quite weird to dislike winter but want snow. Most people who dislike winter can just move down somewhere that is milder, but if you like snow you have to be somewhere with winter to get snow.

The idea of disliking winter but liking snow is so weird to me. I guess we're all different.

As for me, I love winter, snow or not.

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So is the GFS ... at least in the 500 mb - not bothering to look that surface synoptics with any GFS solution, until it is perfect at 500 mb, because this model will at least excuse imagined ... shit stain the outlook unless you are parked under 700 dm Venetian ridge node -  but this run opts for more of a broad trough as opposed to stem winding a vortex thru the nor'easter climo axis'

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It could all be bullshit anyway...  You know, the NAO is supposed to be a part of all that - which in reality and wave transmittance means it's actually the pacific but we'll go with it.   Anyway, the NAO's are often over sold at D7-10 ..so I'm not too put off by it all until I see that actually make it into D5 range.   

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