2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah...we did get a great pattern late February and March and established prime troughing for us

2020-2021 didn't have below average heights per se, but there were certainly some lower heights and colder air knifing into the country.

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2020-2021 didn't have below average heights per se, but there were certainly some lower heights and colder air knifing into the country.

yeah January 2021 certainly did and was aided by the extreme blocking across Greenland. 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Expect some chilly weather with the NAO and AO going negative 

[bristolri_wx]

CANSIPS and CFS Monthly runs continue to look like a favorable pattern for DJFM.  Ridges in the west, below normal cold in Canada, etc.  That's all you can ask for at this time range.

[Prismshine Productions]

CANSIPS and CFS Monthly runs continue to look like a favorable pattern for DJFM.  Ridges in the west, below normal cold in Canada, etc.  That's all you can ask for at this time range.

Keep in mind CFS is notorious for showing torch, so if it is showing BN it is saying something

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Torch Tiger]

to be fair, cansips and cfs are also somewhat dry. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/1/2025 at 6:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DJF hardly below normal from around the N shore of Boston points NE into Maine screams late-blooming Miller B, to me.

 

 

On 10/1/2025 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even more pronounced for JFM:

 

46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

to be fair, cansips and cfs are also somewhat dry. 

 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

Yeah I wouldn't worry about it. lol

[WxWatcher007]

Jesus, I was just looking back at my winter wx records. No wonder why winter is my least favorite season now. 

2014-15: 27.3" (DC)
2015-16: 28.5" (DC)
2016-17: 5.6" (DC)
2017-18: 12.5" (DC)
2018-19: 30.3" (CT)
2019-20: 16.5" (CT)
2020-21: 44.5" (CT)
2021-22: 28.8" (CT)
2022-23: 13.7" (CT)
2023-24: 24.7" (CT)
2024-25: 19.8" (CT)

Unmitigated disaster. For the love of God let's turn this around. 

[H2Otown_WX]

21 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Jesus, I was just looking back at my winter wx records. No wonder why winter is my least favorite season now. 

2014-15: 27.3" (DC)
2015-16: 28.5" (DC)
2016-17: 5.6" (DC)
2017-18: 12.5" (DC)
2018-19: 30.3" (CT)
2019-20: 16.5" (CT)
2020-21: 44.5" (CT)
2021-22: 28.8" (CT)
2022-23: 13.7" (CT)
2023-24: 24.7" (CT)
2024-25: 19.8" (CT)

Unmitigated disaster. For the love of God let's turn this around. 

What were you expecting on the urban valley floor? Nah but seriously, you moved back up here just in time for the new 80s to start.

[cleetussnow]

Accutrash came out with their winter forecast.  Headline says cold and snow with northeasters, but actually predicts much below normal snow for the major EC cities.  So we get the hype click bait and then switch.  Got it.  Since I think they suck, and they do, I’m going with that they bust somehow.  

Accuweather.com

[cleetussnow]

And interesting and sad highlight for the weenies in southern Alabama.  They should expect below average snow.  Snowfall down there is virtually zero.  So - that means, negative snow!  Accutrash is predicting negative snowfall.  Are they supposed to produce snowfall to cover the deficit?  I am a little more suspicious than usual.  

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Accutrash came out with their winter forecast.  Headline says cold and snow with northeasters, but actually predicts much below normal snow for the major EC cities.  So we get the hype click bait and then switch.  Got it.  Since I think they suck, and they do, I’m going with that they bust somehow.  

Accuweather.com

I read the forecast and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

December might be the warmest and driest month of the three in terms of anomalies and averages. JFM looks good at this point but of course at this range could turn to shit as we get closer.  The below normal precip later in the winter could signal more snow than rain rather than less chances for precip overall.

Even with the pattern looking favorable it’s hard to predict more than an average winter in terms of cold and snow which compared to the last few would still feel more wintry than previous seasons.

[cleetussnow]

12 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I read the forecast and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

December might be the warmest and driest month of the three in terms of anomalies and averages. JFM looks good at this point but of course at this range could turn to shit as we get closer.  The below normal precip later in the winter could signal more snow than rain rather than less chances for precip overall.

Even with the pattern looking favorable it’s hard to predict more than an average winter in terms of cold and snow which compared to the last few would still feel more wintry than previous seasons.

Seasonal forecasts have little to no skill at this range.  Its a crap shoot, but I feel like a solid few weeks of winter vibe is in the cards.  Maybe a storm in lala land will verify for once.  

[MJO812]

 

[UnitedWx]

13 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Accutrash came out with their winter forecast.  Headline says cold and snow with northeasters, but actually predicts much below normal snow for the major EC cities.  So we get the hype click bait and then switch.  Got it.  Since I think they suck, and they do, I’m going with that they bust somehow.  

Accuweather.com

We call it Fuccuweather in our house

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Accutrash came out with their winter forecast.  Headline says cold and snow with northeasters, but actually predicts much below normal snow for the major EC cities.  So we get the hype click bait and then switch.  Got it.  Since I think they suck, and they do, I’m going with that they bust somehow.  

Accuweather.com

It doesn't really add up IMO....they have slightly above average precip, normal temps...yet below average snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't really add up IMO....they have slightly above average precip, normal temps...yet below average snow.

 I wouldn't know anything about Accuweather bias, nor their forecast philosophies ... but a pathway to a low snow turn out whilst normal temp for our region could be related to an anomalously warm mid level plague -

which in fact, we don't exactly live and breath in an Earth era that's short of reasons to see something like that occurring.  just sayn    

I'm not forecasting that but Devil's advocate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 I wouldn't know anything about Accuweather bias, nor their forecast philosophies ... but a pathway to a low snow turn out whilst normal temp for our region could be related to an anomalously warm mid level plague -

which in fact, we don't exactly live and breath in an Earth era that's short of reasons to see something like that occurring.  just sayn    

I'm not forecasting that but Devil's advocate.

True, I do expect a lot of inland primaries....I could see a slighly below average season, but shouldn't be an abomination at my locale....I don't think.

[MJO812]

DT

[cleetussnow]

I have to hand out 2 weenies here - one to Ant for posting a DT winter post, and one to DT to add to his Weenie Mountain of weenies located in the DC area.  
 

Fun Fact, one can see my house from the top of Weenie Mountain. 

[mahk_webstah]

From AER blog:

Siberian snow cover got off to a quick start in September and that has continued into October (see Figure ii), however it seems to me the rapid advance of late September has slowed a bit in October. In fact in a bit f an unusual twist the surface temperatures have been more impressive this month (as in cold) than the snow cover, typically it is the reversed. Above normal Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) favors a weak polar vortex this winter and more widespread severe winter weather across the NH. But the persistence of the pattern that is supportive of a rapid advance of Siberian snow cover for remainder of the month remains cloudy and uncertain in my opinion. As I thought might happen and mentioned in the last blog, the trough across Siberia transitions to high-pressure ridging, this scenario is now predicted by the models. That would greatly reduce the odds of a weak polar vortex and colder weather this winter. This seems to have been a fairly common occurrence the past few Octobers. If there is a sign that the cavalry is coming (that is if you are a winter weather enthusiast) it is the development and even dominance of Greenland blocking. That should squash any Siberian ridging and resume the rapid advance of Siberian SCE. But predicting high latitude blocking is a known model weakness and confidence for the second half of October is low

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

From AER blog:

Siberian snow cover got off to a quick start in September and that has continued into October (see Figure ii), however it seems to me the rapid advance of late September has slowed a bit in October. In fact in a bit f an unusual twist the surface temperatures have been more impressive this month (as in cold) than the snow cover, typically it is the reversed. Above normal Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) favors a weak polar vortex this winter and more widespread severe winter weather across the NH. But the persistence of the pattern that is supportive of a rapid advance of Siberian snow cover for remainder of the month remains cloudy and uncertain in my opinion. As I thought might happen and mentioned in the last blog, the trough across Siberia transitions to high-pressure ridging, this scenario is now predicted by the models. That would greatly reduce the odds of a weak polar vortex and colder weather this winter. This seems to have been a fairly common occurrence the past few Octobers. If there is a sign that the cavalry is coming (that is if you are a winter weather enthusiast) it is the development and even dominance of Greenland blocking. That should squash any Siberian ridging and resume the rapid advance of Siberian SCE. But predicting high latitude blocking is a known model weakness and confidence for the second half of October is low

More voodoo.

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More voodoo.

The snow cover advance has to be one of the biggest frauds out there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The snow cover advance has to be one of the biggest frauds out there. 

I think the "fraudulent" claims are too far on the other end...like most elements of research concerning seasonal forecating, it's importance was initially overstated due to a combination of our lust for skill in this arena combined with today's overzealous portrayal on social media. It has it's value if used properly in concert with a multitude of other factors, but said value was undoubtedly intially overstated. I usually give it a shout out near the end of the polar section of my final outlook, but it's more of a confidence bolsterer/voice of dissent. It's not the basis of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the "fraudulent" claims are too far on the other end...like most elements of research concerning seasoncal forecating, it's importance was initially overstated due to a combination of our lust for skill in this arena combined with today's overzealous portrayal on social media. It has it's value if used properly in concert with a multitude of other factors, but said value was undoubtedly intially overstated. I usually give it a shout out near the end of the polar section of my final outlook, but it's more of a confidence bolsterer/voice of dissent. It's not the basies of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

Perfectly stated 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not the basis of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

BTW, this concept isn't, or shouldn't be unique to the SAI, either....it's pretty universally folly to base a seasonal outlook on any one factor...the more eclectic, exhaustive and multiperspective, the better-

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More voodoo.

Judoo?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The snow cover advance has to be one of the biggest frauds out there. 

It depends what is meant by the bold ( for me - )

Snow advances ... that's just seasonally unavoidable.  But, not all years observe this normalcy the same way.  They all tend ( or used to before perhaps 25 years ago), end up around the same cryospheric state by mid Februaries ... but the autumnal d(cryo)/dt (speed of recovery) I have found is more correlated to ensuing winter temperature biases over Canada ( and by circumstance of proximity ... affecting the U.S.)

Faster tended to be colder Mt-WI-NY-NS

Slower tended to be more variable .. ( don't wanna say "warm" here because that word is very relative circa Jan 25th at Tower Minnesota)

So stating the obvious... cold is intrinsic to snow.  Gee ya think-

But what's interesting about this is that the correlation has been not as good over the last decade ... It's complex, but I suspect the warming polar summer states are setting up favorable frameworks more abruptly during recovery times - going for deeper lows to any snow at all...  so it's artificially ( so to speak...) lending to impressive d(cryo)/dt.  

... Like everything being effected by the CC one-eyed monster, the predictability of any domain in question tends to be the first aspects to get f'ed.

So the simplest version of all this, yes the d(cryo)/dt is impressive, this year, but - for me - it could be construed as more impressive in say, 1995 than it really is in 2025.

*But* ( ... to add even more to this "popcycle" headache - ), it's not just the land snow.  I noticed, back mid to late August that that the rate of sea-ice loss was slowing more so than the last several years, relative to dates...  That was unexpected, particularly when we just came off the 2023 oceanic jacuzzi historic year so recently.  Interesting...  Anyway, the seasonal nadir appeared to also happen about 10 days to 2 weeks earlier than the last several years ( using Climate Reanalyzer), and has shown also that seasonal recovery behaves to do so more meaningfully, sooner and perhaps faster.   This below is an example of how the scalar value, still being low, belies the character/behavior of the system, which is perhaps better exposed by evaluating the deltas.  So adding all this to the other aspects farther above ... mmm, I'm at least curious if the wholesale hemisphere is hinting here.