2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah...we did get a great pattern late February and March and established prime troughing for us

2020-2021 didn't have below average heights per se, but there were certainly some lower heights and colder air knifing into the country.

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2020-2021 didn't have below average heights per se, but there were certainly some lower heights and colder air knifing into the country.

yeah January 2021 certainly did and was aided by the extreme blocking across Greenland. 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Expect some chilly weather with the NAO and AO going negative 

[bristolri_wx]

CANSIPS and CFS Monthly runs continue to look like a favorable pattern for DJFM.  Ridges in the west, below normal cold in Canada, etc.  That's all you can ask for at this time range.

[Prismshine Productions]

CANSIPS and CFS Monthly runs continue to look like a favorable pattern for DJFM.  Ridges in the west, below normal cold in Canada, etc.  That's all you can ask for at this time range.

Keep in mind CFS is notorious for showing torch, so if it is showing BN it is saying something

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[Torch Tiger]

to be fair, cansips and cfs are also somewhat dry. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/1/2025 at 6:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DJF hardly below normal from around the N shore of Boston points NE into Maine screams late-blooming Miller B, to me.

 

 

On 10/1/2025 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even more pronounced for JFM:

 

46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

to be fair, cansips and cfs are also somewhat dry. 

 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

Yeah I wouldn't worry about it. lol

[WxWatcher007]

Jesus, I was just looking back at my winter wx records. No wonder why winter is my least favorite season now. 

2014-15: 27.3" (DC)
2015-16: 28.5" (DC)
2016-17: 5.6" (DC)
2017-18: 12.5" (DC)
2018-19: 30.3" (CT)
2019-20: 16.5" (CT)
2020-21: 44.5" (CT)
2021-22: 28.8" (CT)
2022-23: 13.7" (CT)
2023-24: 24.7" (CT)
2024-25: 19.8" (CT)

Unmitigated disaster. For the love of God let's turn this around. 

[H2Otown_WX]

21 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Jesus, I was just looking back at my winter wx records. No wonder why winter is my least favorite season now. 

2014-15: 27.3" (DC)
2015-16: 28.5" (DC)
2016-17: 5.6" (DC)
2017-18: 12.5" (DC)
2018-19: 30.3" (CT)
2019-20: 16.5" (CT)
2020-21: 44.5" (CT)
2021-22: 28.8" (CT)
2022-23: 13.7" (CT)
2023-24: 24.7" (CT)
2024-25: 19.8" (CT)

Unmitigated disaster. For the love of God let's turn this around. 

What were you expecting on the urban valley floor? Nah but seriously, you moved back up here just in time for the new 80s to start.

[cleetussnow]

Accutrash came out with their winter forecast.  Headline says cold and snow with northeasters, but actually predicts much below normal snow for the major EC cities.  So we get the hype click bait and then switch.  Got it.  Since I think they suck, and they do, I’m going with that they bust somehow.  

Accuweather.com

[cleetussnow]

And interesting and sad highlight for the weenies in southern Alabama.  They should expect below average snow.  Snowfall down there is virtually zero.  So - that means, negative snow!  Accutrash is predicting negative snowfall.  Are they supposed to produce snowfall to cover the deficit?  I am a little more suspicious than usual.  

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Accutrash came out with their winter forecast.  Headline says cold and snow with northeasters, but actually predicts much below normal snow for the major EC cities.  So we get the hype click bait and then switch.  Got it.  Since I think they suck, and they do, I’m going with that they bust somehow.  

Accuweather.com

I read the forecast and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

December might be the warmest and driest month of the three in terms of anomalies and averages. JFM looks good at this point but of course at this range could turn to shit as we get closer.  The below normal precip later in the winter could signal more snow than rain rather than less chances for precip overall.

Even with the pattern looking favorable it’s hard to predict more than an average winter in terms of cold and snow which compared to the last few would still feel more wintry than previous seasons.

[cleetussnow]

12 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I read the forecast and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

December might be the warmest and driest month of the three in terms of anomalies and averages. JFM looks good at this point but of course at this range could turn to shit as we get closer.  The below normal precip later in the winter could signal more snow than rain rather than less chances for precip overall.

Even with the pattern looking favorable it’s hard to predict more than an average winter in terms of cold and snow which compared to the last few would still feel more wintry than previous seasons.

Seasonal forecasts have little to no skill at this range.  Its a crap shoot, but I feel like a solid few weeks of winter vibe is in the cards.  Maybe a storm in lala land will verify for once.  

[MJO812]