2025-2026 ENSO

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

Yeah. That and to have cities have their 3rd coldest stretch in 152 years is impressive. People keep acting like this happens every winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

Could be like a March 2024 redux where the first half was record warm and the second half cooled off to near or slightly below average, despite completely different ENSO conditions.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. That and to have cities have their 3rd coldest stretch in 152 years is impressive. People keep acting like this happens every winter. 

Cherry picking cities will do that

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.

Pick your model. If one picks Feb 8th ext GEFS like you did (2/9 ext GEFS not out yet), it looks mild. But if one picks the Euro Weeklies, which is a superior model to the GEFS, it isn’t as it’s a mix of AN, NN, and BN. Of course none of them are reliable that far out. But I much prefer the ext Euro over ext GEFS.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

"Could be"....The typical way to make a forecast leaving yourself an out if it fails, which would never happen, of course, since MJO 20-30 day forecasts are always accurate. 

I suspect you've got to pay those people if you want a real forecast. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

Thats not the reason its getting attention here. Nor is this the climate change forum. But I digress. 

In the 25 years I've been on weather forums ("bulletin boards" in the old days), I'd never known weather observer/enthusiast/weenies to dismiss their own weather anamolies because there is a stronger anomaly thousands of miles away. We are weather enthusiasts for many reasons but primarily because we enjoy the weather in our backyard. It's a wild concept to think that instead of a weather enthusiast enjoying a snowstorm in their yard, they should be concerned because its 65° in denver. I guess if i have to pick a weather anamoly not in my backyard to focus on, ill choose the alltime record breaking snowfall in Russia this winter (strangely hasn't been mentioned here).  

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

Of course warmest will outpace coldest with global land areas averaging 3F warmer than where the avg was in 1900. If you were to subtract 3F from recent years of records, wouldn’t cold anomalies be on par with warm anomalies?

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

Great another cold and dreary spring.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Cherry picking cities will do that

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

The tide is eventually going to turn the other way. 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is torching. 

Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I made a new thread

This one should still continue through the Winter, as effects of yearly ENSO state are felt through the following March. 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

If one takes off about 2.5°, they'd be about as common as they once were.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

This is due to inadequacy of relying on the standard teleconnections with patterns like this. It was a weaker version of January 1994 and 2004. Those patterns were colder and sustained for a month instead of 15-20 days like this one was.

While it doesn’t have a formal name, the key driver of the cold was the 500mb block north of Alaska. That is a very cold teleconnection in the East.

You can find other examples such as 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. This was the coldest 16 day period around NYC Metro since then.

 
 

 

 

Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	16.8	2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10	0
2	16.9	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09	0
3	17.1	2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08	0
4	17.2	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08	0
5	17.5	2026-01-25 through 2026-02-09	0

 

Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	20.8	2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10	0
2	20.8	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09	0
3	20.9	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08	0

 

Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	19.7	2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10	0
2	19.7	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09	0
3	20.1	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08	0

 

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is torching. 

Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? 

Hope your not giving up on the remainder of this winter. I see in the MA forum your not a big fan of the RNA.

[EastonSN+]

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

[EastonSN+]

Not a Horrible look..

 

[EastonSN+]

This looks to support some blocking 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

 If I get enough time, I’ll analyze the Baltimore daily temperatures for some of the MJO phases in (post) La Niña years in March as a followup to my 20 Feb MJO La Niña MJO phase analysis. If I do, I might start with 8. I’d look at the same 20.

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is torching. 

Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? 

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for. 

Regardless, it’s important for continuity/looking back that we keep most of the posts specifically pertaining to the rest of this cold season in this thread. Besides the lag of ENSO related effects, these threads are obviously about far more than ENSO, itself.

[GaWx]

 The chances for an overall Feb -PNA are good as of now with a strong -PNA upcoming. This goes through Feb 24th:

AO now rising sharply:

 

NAO is, like the AO, also rising. However, it remains to be seen whether or not this rise will be enough to get the DJF NAO >-0.25, the # I’ve always used to classify a winter as -NAO vs neutral. DJ is at -0.5. In order for DJF to rise above -0.25, the Feb NAO would need to end up >+0.25, which is a decent possibility per this:

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The chances for an overall Feb -PNA are good as of now with a strong -PNA upcoming. This goes through Feb 24th:

AO now rising sharply:

 

NAO is, like the AO, also rising. However, it remains to be seen whether or not this rise will be enough to get the DJF NAO >-0.25, the # I’ve always used to classify a winter as -NAO vs neutral. DJ is at -0.5. In order for DJF to rise above -0.25, the Feb NAO would need to end up >+0.25, which is a decent possibility per this:

Not looking great as of now for cold snowy for the east coast. Hope changes soon.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Unfortunately the EC has a tendency to kill waves. GEFS is usually more accurate.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not looking great as of now for cold snowy for the east coast. Hope changes soon.

A negative PNA is fine for us ( not too negative)

[snowman19]

All joking aside, this has been a very dry winter and drought conditions are worsening. We are going to have big issues this spring into the summer if we don’t start getting a lot of rain. As @bluewave pointed out, the end of January snowstorm didn’t have a lot of liquid equivalent, just very good ratios with the Siberian cold that was in place, it’s not going to melt down to much…..
 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

-NAO rising to positive. -PNA becoming deeper. Meteorology over modelology, it shouldn't take much for us to understand that is opposite of the a good winter pattern. That's about as bad as it gets 

Hoping after a mild week 2 for an improvement to mainly NN in the SE late month into March!