2025-2026 ENSO

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

 

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though.  It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

[snowman19]

I have no doubt that the MJO gets into phase 6. My question is, what happens when it gets into phase 7? As we have seen time and time again over the years, the models inaccurately project it barreling right through phase 7, 8 and 1 with amplitude only to be have it die in phase 7. Definitely something to watch going forward later on in November @bluewave 

[EasternLI]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

 

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

Yeah I agree it will likely trend that way too in this instance. Gefs guidance can overdo it sometimes too though. So I've been kinda focused on euro guidance to see if it would trend more amplified. And it has been which is good to see. Yesterday's weeklies were another good step too. Avoiding the circle completely that run with some amplified members too. 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

Since my last post on E US temperatures on the Euro Weeklies two days ago, they’ve warmed up significantly in just about all of the weeks. Not only is Nov 3-9 not nearly as chilly, but also Nov 10-30 has warmed from mainly NN to pretty solid AN.

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/cae/november2014climatesummary.html

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT FRI DEC 5 2014

...NOVEMBER 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY...

...EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SOME PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS RECEIVED UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
1ST...
...2ND COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...
...11TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...17TH WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS EITHER BROKEN OR TIED AT AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA...
...EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES WITH A WEAK EL NINO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...


THE THEME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS COLD AND WET...EVEN WHITE.
THE MONTH STARTED OFF IN A BIG WAY WITH EARLIEST AND LARGEST SNOW
EVENT ON RECORD FOR NOVEMBER. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT...THE EARLIEST
SNOWFALL RECORDED IN COLUMBIA OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WAS
SMALL...AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. MORE
ABOUT THIS EVENT IS BELOW IN THE NOVEMBER EVENTS SECTION.

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERED ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THIS PRODUCED RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MONTH AND AT TIMES A STORM TRACK BRINGING
WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE Gulf of America AND TRACKING THEM
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE
WARM AND DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUGUSTA REGIONAL BUSH FIELD WAS 49.2
DEGREES OR 6.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.2 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT WAS 50.5 DEGREES OR 4.3
DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.8 DEGREES.

EVENTS FOR NOVEMBER 2014:

NOVEMBER 1ST...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY THE 1ST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...YET TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AT THE ONSET WERE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA...THE INTENSE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO COOL THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRED FROM THE UPSTATE AREA THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA. THE SNOW CAME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOT UNCOMMON. THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE MOST SNOW WERE LOCATED FROM WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY INTO SALUDA
COUNTY...EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND EXTREME NW AIKEN COUNTY. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS LINCOLN COUNTY GA...MCCORMICK
COUNTY SC...THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA...BARNWELL COUNTY SC...BAMBERG
COUNTY SC...ORANGEBURG COUNTY SC AND EVEN DORCHESTER COUNTY SC. MANY
AREAS REPORTED TREES DOWN DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND MANY TREES
STILL HOLDING MANY OF THEIR LEAVES.

IN LEXINGTON COUNTY THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERT WHERE
UP TO 6 INCHES FELL. THE HEAVY SNOW BROUGHT DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES...EVEN CLOSING A PORTION OF I-26.

IN SALUDA COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 40 TO 50 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

IN NEWBERRY COUNTY...AIKEN COUNTY AND EDGEFIELD COUNTY...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 1 INCH IN PLACES.


HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS:

SC-LX-93 GILBERT 1.0 SE.............4.3 INCHES
SC-LX-22 LEXINGTON 5.9 SW...........4.2 INCHES
SC-LX-39 GILBERT 1.2 SSW............3.5 INCHES
SC-LX-69 LEXINGTON 3.0 WSW..........3.0 INCHES
SC-LX-26 LEXINGTON 3.4 SSE..........1.5 INCHES
SC-LX-43 LEXINGTON 1.2 SSW..........1.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OUR NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS:

BATESBURG (BATS1)...................3.5 INCHES
PELION 4 NW (PLNS1).................3.0 INCHES
CEDAR CREEK (BLYS1).................1.0 INCHES
JOHNSTON 4 SW (JOHS1)...............0.8 INCHES
NEWBERRY (NWYS1)....................0.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA EM/PUBLIC/SOCIAL MEDIA:

GILBERT.............................6.0 INCHES
RED BANK............................4.5 INCHES
I-26 MILEMARKER 47..................4.5 INCHES
SUMMIT..............................4.0 INCHES
SALUDA..............................2.0 INCHES
PELION..............................2.0 INCHES
LEXINGTON...........................1-2 INCHES

...HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SNOW INFORMATION FOR COLUMBIA...
PRIOR TO THIS EVENT THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR COLUMBIA WAS
A TRACE OF SNOW THAT FELL ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913. THE RECORD SNOWFALL
FOR NOVEMBER OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 28TH, 1912 WHEN 1 INCH OF
SNOW WAS OBSERVED.



NOVEMBER 19TH...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCED THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. MANY
LOCATIONS FELL INTO THE TEENS.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES:

8 E FORT JACKSON...................14 DEGREES
2 ESE SALUDA.......................14 DEGREES
CEDAR CREEK NWS COOP (BLYS1).......14 DEGREES
8 SE NEW ELLENTON..................14 DEGREES
LANDFILL (RCWINDS).................14 DEGREES
BEAR CREEK (RCWINDS)...............14 DEGREES
GADSDEN (RCWINDS)..................14 DEGREES
1 NW BLYTHEWOOD....................15 DEGREES
1 SSE WAYNESBORO GA................15 DEGREES
3 SSE RIDGEWAY.....................15 DEGREES
4 NW PELION NWS COOP (PLNS1).......15 DEGREES
2 E CANE SAVANNAH..................15 DEGREES
9 WNW JEFFERSON....................15 DEGREES
EASTOVER (RCWINDS).................15 DEGREES

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo. 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

 

 Thanks, Chris.

 One thing I noticed though is that Oct of 2025 is coming in mainly NN for the E 1/4 of the US overall, which is cooler than Octobers 2015-24 except 2022 with the super strong El Niño 2015 (so not an analog) similar fwiw.

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo. 

Slow start to winter ? Signs are pointing to the opposite. 

Great Snow cover to our north 

Weak PV

MjO moving along 

Weak La Nina

November looks warm but that should change for December . December looks to be a very wintry month ( right now )

 

[Krs4Lfe]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Slow start to winter ? Signs are pointing to the opposite. 

Great Snow cover to our north 

Weak PV

MjO moving along 

Weak La Nina

November looks warm but that should change for December . December looks to be a very wintry month ( right now )

 

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there. 

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there. 

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

[snowman19]

Just eyeballing the SSTs in the IO, it would not surprise me if the IOD goes even more deeply negative on the next weekly update….the western IO is still cooling rapidly, so extremely likely that another record negative number (since 2000) is on the way for next week….. @GaWx

[Krs4Lfe]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada 

[Krs4Lfe]

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS. 

Let the cold air be bottled up over there until December.