2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looks like canonical Niña. I’m looking for JB to cool this down for his final outlook considering he tends to do that when it isn’t cold along the NE coast. Also, here’s some big hints within this that he will do just that:

August 29, 2025

• The threat of a cold winter looms.
• Plenty of blocking is expected over the Arctic.
• A prominent Alaskan ridge should lead to plenty of cold air.
• Another Thanksgiving to Christmas cold period is on the table, but this time it may not break.
• The heart of the winter looks coldest relative to average, but there are questions as to how it starts and ends.

Gotta' give it to him. That's a whole lot of words for a non-forecast.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the strongest -IOD since the 22-23 and 16-17 La Ninas.  

My guess for the rest of this season is that the ACE will finish below the 161 level of last year.

 

I guess this means the upcoming winter is cooked and torched.

I had a below 161 ACE before the season even begun, and it was pretty apparent by mid-June. The better question now is if we're even going to hit half of 161 ACE.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Gotta' give it to him. That's a whole lot of words for a non-forecast.

Don’t worry. By mid-November he will be right to very cold and snowy for the east coast. Severe cold cold snow from Thanksgiving until till New Year’s, “December to remember”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GFS ensemble mean has -400dm over Wisconsin in 2 days. I wonder when was the last time we had the 5400dm line in the US within 45 days of the hottest of the year? It comes in as purple, and that's been a rare pattern lately, only really happening over the AO and NAO regions. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I guess this means the upcoming winter is cooked and torched.

I had a below 161 ACE before the season even begun, and it was pretty apparent by mid-June. The better question now is if we're even going to hit half of 161 ACE.

- I predicted 139 ACE in the contest before the season started.

-There's still a long way to go based on it being La Niña and also considering that recent La Niña seasons have been more backended than in the past.

-IF ACE ends up low, I’ll give you kudos. If not I hope you’ll be humble and admit you were wrong.

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looks like canonical Niña. I’m looking for JB to cool this down for his final outlook considering he tends to do that when it isn’t cold along the NE coast. Also, here’s some big hints within this that he will do just that:

August 29, 2025

• The threat of a cold winter looms.
• Plenty of blocking is expected over the Arctic.
• A prominent Alaskan ridge should lead to plenty of cold air.
• Another Thanksgiving to Christmas cold period is on the table, but this time it may not break.
• The heart of the winter looks coldest relative to average, but there are questions as to how it starts and ends.

He seems to do this every year. He understands that the holiday season is a high profile season due to travel and other activities. He understands the romantic power of a "white Christmas." Thus, he seizes upon the element of timing to pull emotional triggers and set a digital wildfire with his calls for a cold and often snowy Thanksgiving to Christmas. Almost certainly, the mention of snow will be made as the holidays draw closer to ensure maximum attention and to keep the digital fire burning.

He also understands that memories are short-term. All the failed forecasts will be forgotten. They always are. Thus, he recycles his calls over and over again in what ultimately is a successful pursuit of clicks. In this social media game, "winning" is defined by clicks not accuracy. 

Having said this, La Niña winters can get off to a fast start. But with some exceptions, they fade as the forcing shifts.

[anthonymm]

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's been pretty constant central-subsurface cold since the 23-24 El Nino. You can see how the surface has been running much warmer than the subsurface (more credence to RONI), which makes me think that when we finally do shift to El Nino, it will be warmer than the subsurface Kelvin Waves would indicate. Pretty good chance we go to El Nino in 2026 or 2027. 

It looks like the ONI and RONI are converging:

JJA 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.2

JJA 2025 RONI: -0.46

August 2025 PDO: -3.23 (July 2025 PDO was adjusted to -4.12)

If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I can only see it going weak or moderate.

If it happens in 2027-28, it will be much stronger with the extra year to develop. (I mean, it's no surprise the 15-16 el nino was very strong because of the extra 3 years it had to develop. It didn't happen in 12-13 as most people thought, or even 14-15.)

[Yanksfan]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

If we get one it’ll be weak. There will be other factors at play that’ll determine what kind of winter we get.

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

Are we jumping the gun on the ENSO state being La Niña? No

[GaWx]

RONI-ONI differences have been slowly dropping since late in 2024 and especially since FMA:

2024:

JJA -0.54

JAS -0.52

ASO -0.54

SON -0.55

OND -0.55

NDJ -0.54

DJF -0.53

 

2025:

JFM -0.51

FMA -0.49

MAM -0.43

AMJ -0.38

MJJ -0.32

JJA -0.29

[PhiEaglesfan712]

33 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

If Nino 1+2 does not return to an el nino state, then this winter will have a more la nina feel to it. Last year felt like a tug-of-war between the la nina in 3.4 and the el nino in 1+2. It certainly did not behave like a la nina.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t worry. By mid-November he will be right to very cold and snowy for the east coast. Severe cold cold snow from Thanksgiving until till New Year’s, “December to remember”

Actually, a snowy Thanksgiving to New Years would be a classic weak Nina in the Great Lakes (not sure about the east coast).

The issue in recent years has been Ninas have had a tendency to flip flop Dec & Feb.

[donsutherland1]

Here's how La Niñas transition (using New York City's data) following cooler than normal and warmer than normal Septembers:

In general, warmer Septembers are often followed by milder and less snowy winters. Cooler Septembers slightly favor colder winters (especially January, possibly due to more persistent forcing) with greater snowfall potential.

[George001]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

We have seen significant cooling in the ENSO 3.4 region in the past month, it is already down to -0.8 on the daily, and -0.4 on the weeklies. When taking into account the current guidance and historical precedence (the last 3 strong El Niños were immediately followed by multi year La Niñas), it is the logical conclusion to make. So I would disagree that people are jumping the gun about the ENSO state for this winter. The big question is will the La Niña be east based, basin wide, or a modoki event. Right now guidance is favoring an east based event. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If Nino 1+2 does not return to an el nino state, then this winter will have a more la nina feel to it. Last year felt like a tug-of-war between the la nina in 3.4 and the el nino in 1+2. It certainly did not behave like a la nina.

Cold ENSO 3.4 and warm ENSO 1+2 is still a La Niña, just a different kind of La Niña (modoki La Niña). At times it didn’t behave like a La Niña, but that is more because it was so weak than what ENSO 1+2 was doing. In Feb though the storm track was consistent with a modoki event. In modoki events storms tend to take more of a northern track, which is why they are unfavorable for big snows outside of NNE. There was a lot of low level cold though, so it got icy.

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how La Niñas transition (using New York City's data) following cooler than normal and warmer than normal Septembers:

In general, warmer Septembers are often followed by milder and less snowy winters. Cooler Septembers slightly favor colder winters (especially January, possibly due to more persistent forcing) with greater snowfall potential.

Tony, the retired NWS Met from Philly, said that a combo of September and October temps vs. just September had a high correlation to determining above/below temps for the D-F average in Philly. He used to post at Phillywx, then when it closed, joined the same folks on Discord I believe.  If not Discord, one of the other platforms. I think Chubb would know.

Anyway, for mby, it correlates similarly to Phl. Unfortunately, it's a painful, long 2 month wait and you're almost into November by the time you know. By then, winter forecasts are out and some, especially north and west of Philly, may have already experienced some winter wx. But it's a useful predictor nonetheless and likely extends further north and west from Philly. 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Tony, the retired NWS Met from Philly, said that a combo of September and October temps vs. just September had a high correlation to determining above/below temps for the D-F average in Philly. He used to post at Phillywx, then when it closed, joined the same folks on Discord I believe.  If not Discord, one of the other platforms. I think Chubb would know.

Anyway, for mby, it correlates similarly to Phl. Unfortunately, it's a painful, long 2 month wait and you're almost into November by the time you know. By then, winter forecasts are out and some, especially north and west of Philly, may have already experienced some winter wx. But it's a useful predictor nonetheless and likely extends further north and west from Philly. 

Yes,  phillywx discord. Posted here years ago

[snowman19]

It’s starting to look increasingly likely that the recent prolonged cool spell isn’t going continue into late month. If this is indeed where we are headed, given how extremely dry it’s been, we will be facing major drought conditions like we did last fall

[binbisso]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s starting to look increasingly likely that the recent prolonged cool spell isn’t going continue into late month. If this is indeed where we are headed, given how extremely dry it’s been, we will be facing major drought conditions like we did last fall

 

 

 

 

 

1 to 3" of rain tonight from eastern pa thru se ny. Most of these areas will probably see a wetter than normal September. More Saturday i guess he didn't look at short term guidance 

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, binbisso said:

1 to 3" of rain tonight from eastern pa thru se ny. Most of these areas will probably see a wetter than normal September. More Saturday i guess he didn't look at short term guidance 

Normal rainfall for NYC in September is 3.7 inches, which didn’t happen tonight. Nor did tonight even make so much as a dent in the big long term deficit (most important) since August 1st 

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Normal rainfall for NYC in September is 3.7 inches, which didn’t happen tonight. Nor did tonight even make so much as a dent in the big long term deficit (most important) since August 1st 

I never said nyc. Eastern pa, nw new Jersey and se ny west of Hudson. He posted north east drought conditions.  many of these areas will be over September ave by Sunday morning hence he didn't look at short term guidance 

[binbisso]

Just now, binbisso said:

I never said nyc. Eastern pa, nw new Jersey and se ny west of Hudson. He posted north east drought conditions.  many of these areas will be over September ave by Sunday morning hence he didn't look at short term guidance 

Looking at guidance even nyc will be half way to ave by the 6th. Approaching .5" tonight more Saturday 

[snowman19]

 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

@Gawx The active high solar, geomag continues:

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GFS ensemble mean has -400dm over Wisconsin in 2 days. I wonder when was the last time we had the 5400dm line in the US within 45 days of the hottest of the year? It comes in as purple, and that's been a rare pattern lately, only really happening over the AO and NAO regions. 

The Great Lakes snowbelts continue to be the best spots for snow in recent years. 
 

 

[FPizz]

7 hours ago, binbisso said:

1 to 3" of rain tonight from eastern pa thru se ny. Most of these areas will probably see a wetter than normal September. More Saturday i guess he didn't look at short term guidance 

Yes, 1" here and almost 3" north of 80 (some fail to realize there is more to the area than NYC).  All these guys that get posted from X or bluesky are idiots, no better than JB. Anything that brings clicks I guess. 

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Great Lakes snowbelts continue to be the best spots for snow in recent years. 
 

 

Even though that is the far NW tip of upper Michigan, it is still extremely rare to see snowflakes on September 4th. Its almost funny...thats literally a 4-month window between the end of one season and the start of the next lol. 

In winter though, unless you live in the Great Lakes you wont understand how common it is to see flakes flying constantly. Even in SE MI outside the snowbelt, Im like an owl looking outside for those first flakes in Oct or Nov, but by mid-winter its almost like youre immune to the harmless flurries or light snow showers falling all the time. The key to a great winter Great Lakes-wide is an excellent LES AND excellent synoptic pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Looks like it came south with the Pacific pattern, probably more -PNA than -EPO but I haven't seen the H5. Last months had a +SLP over Alaska and a low pressure underneath of it. This one doesn't really have that southern low. And it looks +NAO. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even though that is the far NW tip of upper Michigan, it is still extremely rare to see snowflakes on September 4th. Its almost funny...thats literally a 4-month window between the end of one season and the start of the next lol. 

In winter though, unless you live in the Great Lakes you wont understand how common it is to see flakes flying constantly. Even in SE MI outside the snowbelt, Im like an owl looking outside for those first flakes in Oct or Nov, but by mid-winter its almost like youre immune to the harmless flurries or light snow showers falling all the time. The key to a great winter Great Lakes-wide is an excellent LES AND excellent synoptic pattern.

Yeah, super rare.. like I said, a -400dm anomaly within 45 days of the hottest day of the year, that far south is really impressive!