2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting that.

 Will it get the dip right this time? It busted with those runs having it very weak around 2/10-15. So far this month the weakest has been down only to 19 m/s.

Also a rather quick rebound. @40/70 Benchmark may be able to opine on the effects.

[roardog]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Transition to El Nino should be fast

Don’t we usually start seeing the SOI start going more negative around this time of year for a developing Nino? So far, it’s still quite positive. That could also indicate a pattern change.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Don’t we usually start seeing the SOI start going more negative around this time of year for a developing Nino? So far, it’s still quite positive. That could also indicate a pattern change.

Great point except that isn’t usually at least til Mar or April for even the strongest oncoming ones. And lots of times it isn’t till summer or even early fall, especially for the weak ones.
 In summary, it’s too early for a predominant -SOI even assuming El Niño is on the way in 2026. March is typically the very earliest.

——
Edit:

@LakeEffectOH is your avatar pic Mrs. Slocombe from “Are You Being Served?”

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm not sure if anyone posted this yet, but the MEI for January was -0.8

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies are cooler but only in the shorter term (week of 2/23-3/1), which covers the latter portion of the expected storm that’s being heavily discussed:

Yesterday’s 2/23-3/1:

 

Today’s 2/23-3/1 has a colder signal:

 

[LakeEffectOH]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Great point except that isn’t usually at least til Mar or April for even the strongest oncoming ones. And lots of times it isn’t till summer or even early fall, especially for the weak ones.
 In summary, it’s too early for a predominant -SOI even assuming El Niño is on the way in 2026. March is typically the very earliest.

——
Edit:

@LakeEffectOH is your avatar pic Mrs. Slocombe from “Are You Being Served?”

Yes it is...

[cmillzz]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Pretty warm look. Models haven't really been verifying that pattern this Winter though - let's see if it holds as we get closer, but +nao/+epo combo can be pretty warm and sustained for a little bit of time. 

Very warm pattern for the Midwest atm though. Chicago and other cities obliterated old record highs yesterday.

[EastonSN+]

Still not getting there fast enough

[EastonSN+]

Large dip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also a rather quick rebound. @40/70 Benchmark may be able to opine on the effects.

Like I said last week, the dip may have just been rushed...we are seeing some trending towards that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still no signs of pattern change in March on long range ensemble models

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 hours ago, roardog said:

Don’t we usually start seeing the SOI start going more negative around this time of year for a developing Nino? So far, it’s still quite positive. That could also indicate a pattern change.

SOI has been lagging the last few years

25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25

24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all

23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still no signs of pattern change in March on long range ensemble models

Its following the GEFS MJO. Its in phase 6 there. Should pick up on phase 7 2nd week of March.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still not getting there fast enough

Keep in mind that phase 3 has on average been the coldest phase during the 20 La Niña Februaries since 1975. Note that the upcoming snowstorm threat period of Feb 22-23 centered on the Mid Atlantic is forecasted to be in or very near phase 3 fwiw all the while fighting the making it a challenge progged strong -PNA.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Large dip.

Warmer overall right now, but not a "classic warming"

This Winter is going to finish with greater warm anomalies than cold anomalies at 10mb.. which matches QBO. For the 4th Winter in a row. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 month SOI.. Oct-Feb 25-26 is still going to be the highest since 2022. And we're seeing more of a Nina pattern here in the 2nd part of February and March, despite warm subsurface

[LakePaste25]

Who is ready for more winter at the end of March? 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Who is ready for more winter at the end of March? 

 

Me. I’m always desiring BN temps any time of year. BN in late Mar and Apr with relatively low dewpoints is generally delightful and great for outdoor activities here.

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m anom for 3/23-29:

 

[cmillzz]

44 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Who is ready for more winter at the end of March? 

 

You're acting like the Euro weekly is some crystal ball that can nail a 5 week forecast. Can easily have the wrong idea and bust horribly here, like it did for the Mid-Feb pattern back in Jan as it completely missed the record warmth that is currently dominating the Midwest. It's not even entirely clear how the pattern will look to start March, let alone to END the month.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Who is ready for more winter at the end of March? 

 

 

6 hours ago, cmillzz said:

You're acting like the Euro weekly is some crystal ball that can nail a 5 week forecast. Can easily have the wrong idea and bust horribly here, like it did for the Mid-Feb pattern back in Jan as it completely missed the record warmth that is currently dominating the Midwest. It's not even entirely clear how the pattern will look to start March, let alone to END the month.

The Euro weeklies are NOT a crystal ball. However that doesn't mean it won't be cold at the end of March. I mean i have no idea what march will bring either, but if the first 2/3 of March was warmer than avg then I would bank on the last third being cold. We've seen it countless times in the past with a slew of snowstorms in the post-March 17th timeframe.

[EastonSN+]

Still too slow to reach 7. If the lag is 5 days the effects would be felt between the 11th and 15th.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still too slow to reach 7. If the lag is 5 days the effects would be felt between the 11th and 15th.

1. Note that the 2/22-23 snowstorm threat period remains mainly in phase 3, the coldest phase on avg during La Niña Febs.

2. When I calculate avg temperatures associated with each phase, I’m not assuming any lag. So, during La Niña, phase 3 was coldest on avg in Feb and phase 7 was coldest on avg in Mar, each with no lag. But also keep in mind that these are merely averages being the coldest along with spreads that cover MB to MA. 
 

 For example:

1) For the coldest La Niña phase in Feb on avg, phase 3:

Avg -107/73 days = -1.5, which is 4F colder than the La Niña Feb phase average of +2.5 and has easily averaged the coldest phase.

 Breakdown of the 18 different Feb La Nina phase 3 periods: wide range but more B/MB (7) than A/MA (5)

MB: 1
B: 6
N: 6
A: 3
MA: 2

—————

2) For the coldest La Niña phase in Mar on avg, phase 7:

Avg -135/81 days = -1.7, which is 2.4F colder than the La Niña Mar average of +0.7 and has averaged the coldest phase.

 Breakdown of the 18 different Mar La Nina phase 7 periods: wide range but more B/MB (8) than A/MA (6)

MB: 2
B: 6
N: 4
A: 3
MA: 3