2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting that.

 Will it get the dip right this time? It busted with those runs having it very weak around 2/10-15. So far this month the weakest has been down only to 19 m/s.

Also a rather quick rebound. @40/70 Benchmark may be able to opine on the effects.

[roardog]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Transition to El Nino should be fast

Don’t we usually start seeing the SOI start going more negative around this time of year for a developing Nino? So far, it’s still quite positive. That could also indicate a pattern change.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Don’t we usually start seeing the SOI start going more negative around this time of year for a developing Nino? So far, it’s still quite positive. That could also indicate a pattern change.

Great point except that isn’t usually at least til Mar or April for even the strongest oncoming ones. And lots of times it isn’t till summer or even early fall, especially for the weak ones.
 In summary, it’s too early for a predominant -SOI even assuming El Niño is on the way in 2026. March is typically the very earliest.

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Edit:

@LakeEffectOH is your avatar pic Mrs. Slocombe from “Are You Being Served?”

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm not sure if anyone posted this yet, but the MEI for January was -0.8

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies are cooler but only in the shorter term (week of 2/23-3/1), which covers the latter portion of the expected storm that’s being heavily discussed:

Yesterday’s 2/23-3/1:

 

Today’s 2/23-3/1 has a colder signal: