2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really emphasizes that when things get warm they shatter records and the opposite side is only average to modestly BN at best. 

Yeah, the last time the west was record warm (in 2014-15), at least there was an easy explanation: It was a strong +PDO winter, with a warm neutral/weak el nino. Easy to see in that configuration why you would get a record warm west and a well below average east.

With the current configuration (-PDO/-ENSO/-IOD), there really is no reason why the west should be breaking their 14-15 records. You're not going to get anywhere near record cold in the east (like we did in 14-15) with that configuration.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, the last time the west was record warm (in 2014-15), at least there was an easy explanation: It was a strong +PDO winter, with a warm neutral/weak el nino. Easy to see in that configuration why you would get a record warm west and a well below average east.

With the current configuration (-PDO/-ENSO/-IOD), there really is no reason why the west should be breaking their 14-15 records. You're not going to get anywhere near record cold in the east (like we did in 14-15) with that configuration.

Yeah makes no sense at all for the west to be torching like this in this type of winter.  But as we have said in here we've seen the east torch in El Nino setups recently in oddball configurations.  Dec 2015 was one, that was likely more due to the MJO being record strength in phase 5 or 6 though.

[GaWx]

 The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279.

 This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one.

Records go back to 1948.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[EastonSN+]

[raindancewx]

We're entering the part of the pattern now that can produce snow and ice storms in the Southern Plains. My window for that was 1/15-2/15 this winter, its part of the cold retrogression into the Plains from the East. You can see the models starting to pick up the potential for these systems in the long range now.

That's pretty much how I imagined it - big highs western Canada, storms moving east via Utah, picking up STJ energy as the La Nina dies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There actually is an emergent signal already....maybe it gets abandoned at some point, but this should ultimately grow.

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies 

[MJO812]

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

We're entering the part of the pattern now that can produce snow and ice storms in the Southern Plains. My window for that was 1/15-2/15 this winter, its part of the cold retrogression into the Plains from the East. You can see the models starting to pick up the potential for these systems in the long range now.

That's pretty much how I imagined it - big highs western Canada, storms moving east via Utah, picking up STJ energy as the La Nina dies.

Its why the GFS is such a shitty model in the long range,it has the Jet Max into the Great Lakes with a subtropical ridge building in the SE,good luck with this ice storm it shows

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Its why the GFS is such a shitty model in the long range,it has the Jet Max into the Great Lakes with a subtropical ridge building in the SE,good luck with this ice storm it shows

Check out the 18z. Further south because of the press to the north .

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

 

[GaWx]

The old record long MJO phase 6 for DJF of 13 days (was during La Niña of 1998-9) will be beaten per model progs. Records go back to 1975. It started on Jan 5th and will likely end on Jan 20th or 21st meaning a 16-17 day long phase 6:
 

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

 

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

 I agree that whoever these folks are who touted this very strong WWB should admit their mistake so they can move on beyond it. Are the models that bad?

 Does this mean that 2016-7, which had a very strong WWB, is less of an analog? @donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I agree that whoever these folks are who touted this very strong WWB should admit their mistake so they can move on beyond it.

 Does this mean that 2016-7, which had a very strong WWB, is less of an analog? @donsutherland1

I don't believe 2016-17 is a good analog. I only referenced it, because it had probably the strongest WWB during any La Niña in recent decades. Personally, I didn't think the 2026 WWB would measure up to that event. So far, it has fallen far short.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it.

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

 

This is more than likely from a Rossby Wave,the models have been showing the Rossby Wave train more amplified into the WP and MC,this has been a issue since fall 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are colder than yesterday’s in the E US and are I think the coldest yet for the bulk of Feb. All of weeks 3-6 cooled thanks largely to a higher PNA and a lower AO/NAO. It is no longer looking mild!

 Look at how much the PNA has risen over the last week, especially for 1/27-2/10:

1/10 run:

Today’s run:

 

This has resulted in much better H5:

Yesterday’s run:

 

Today’s run: this is a cold look

[Krs4Lfe]

It’s still surprising to see the lack of snow and cold west of the Midwest in the north east. That will change very soon as waves of cold and snow are likely to travel across the plains and towards the south even. The northeast and the Midwest has truly lucked out with the overall lack of warmth, aside from the 7 to 10 day thaw that we just had. But aside from that, winter has been no longer be seen for much of the US. That statistic I mentioned yesterday, with snow cover at the lowest since 2012 window, is very eye-opening. Seems like something that you would see in a super warm, super El Niño, and I know La Niña’s are usually o, but the warmth and dry conditions have been off the charts this winter with almost wall to wall record setting warmth from the plains to the West Coast.

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s still surprising to see the lack of snow and cold west of the Midwest in the north east. That will change very soon as waves of cold and snow are likely to travel across the plains and towards the south even. The northeast and the Midwest has truly lucked out with the overall lack of warmth, aside from the 7 to 10 day thaw that we just had. But aside from that, winter has been no longer be seen for much of the US. That statistic I mentioned yesterday, with snow cover at the lowest since 2012 window, is very eye-opening. Seems like something that you would see in a super warm, super El Niño, and I know La Niña’s are usually o, but the warmth and dry conditions have been off the charts this winter with almost wall to wall record setting warmth from the plains to the West Coast.

We would need a January-February 2015, February 2021, January 2023, January 2024 (those last 2 were very good for the west( type scenario to change course for much of the central and West US, which is blowing past their all time warm and dry winters from long ago

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are colder than yesterday’s in the E US and are I think the coldest yet for the bulk of Feb. All of weeks 3-6 cooled thanks largely to a higher PNA and a lower AO/NAO. It is no longer looking mild!

 Look at how much the PNA has risen over the last week, especially for 1/27-2/10:

1/10 run:

Today’s run:

 

This has resulted in much better H5:

Yesterday’s run:

 

Today’s run: this is a cold look

The story going back to November has been the long range models trying to weaken the ridge out West only to correct stronger the closer in time we got to forecast time.

The ridge was able to shift out into the Plains for the first half of January. Now the models want to bring it back West again later in January.

There have been plenty of comments that we don’t usually see this with a -PDO. Maybe this ridge is somehow related to the big +NPM spike back in the fall with the marine heatwave off the West Coast. 

Plus this -PDO since 2018-2019 has been more defined by the WPAC warm pool to the East of Japan and south of Aleutians than the cold pool off the West Coast like we used to get with -PDOs prior to the last decade.
 

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If Philly, Baltimore, and DC don't get a major snowstorm in the next week, a new low 10-year rolling snowfall record will be set in those places. The 2016 snowstorm officially goes off the books on Saturday.

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If Philly, Baltimore, and DC don't get a major snowstorm in the next week, a new low 10-year rolling snowfall record will be set in those places. The 2016 snowstorm officially goes off the books on Saturday.

What will the new 10 year rolling snowfall record be?

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What will the new 10 year rolling snowfall record be?

xMacis can sort by years, months or days, but that many days overwhelms it. When sorting by month or year, it defaults to the last day of each month or calendar year, so daily resolution is not available.

With that said, if no more snow falls this month, the 120-month rolling total (February 1, 2016 to January 18, 2026) would be at 75.6" at DC if no additional snows fell this month. The current record is 92.8" ending every month from March 31, 2025 to November 30, 2025. DC would need 17.2" to avoid a new record by month end rolling. Probably the same for the daily unless some additional snows fell in 2016 between the snowmaggedon and the end of the month.

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

xMacis can sort by years, months or days, but that many days overwhelms it. When sorting by month or year, it defaults to the last day of each month or calendar year, so daily resolution is not available.

With that said, if no more snow falls this month, the 120-month rolling total (ending 1/31) would be 75.6" at DC. The current record is 92.8" ending every month from March 31, 2025 to November 30, 2025. DC would need 17.2" to avoid a new record by month end rolling. Probably the same for the daily unless some additional snows fell in 2016 between the snowmaggedon and the end of the month.

For Baltimore, the rolling 120-month total is currently at 95.3" (February 1, 2016 to January 18, 2026). The record is 123.1" for every month from March 31, 2025 to November 30, 2025. Baltimore would need nearly 30" of snow the rest of the month to avoid a new record.

[TheClimateChanger]

And at Philadelphia. The record sorted by month end is 144.1" from March 1, 1922 to February 29, 1932. Last year saw the second lowest at 146.1 inches. Looks like 15.6" is needed to avoid the moving 120-month total record low. Not sure about 10-year daily moving totals - probably similar to these. Almost certainly, the prior record belongs to one of these periods, but might be a little bit lower than these totals, since it's on a daily metric (and this analysis is limited to discrete days - end of each month).

[TheClimateChanger]

I confirmed manually that no additional snows fell in January 2016 after snowmaggedon at any of the sites, so these values would be the rolling 10-year sum [even on a daily resolution] effective January 23, 2026 (covering January 24, 2016 to January 23, 2026).

A rolling 10-year sum of 75.6" [equivalent to an average of just 7.56" each 12 months] at DC, assuming no measurable snow through Friday, seems like it would be difficult to ever break. Maybe an unbreakable record?

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I confirmed manually that no additional snows fell in January 2016 after snowmaggedon at any of the sites, so these values would be the rolling 10-year sum [even on a daily resolution] effective January 23, 2026 (covering January 24, 2016 to January 23, 2026).

A rolling 10-year sum of 75.6" [equivalent to an average of just 7.56" each 12 months] at DC, assuming no measurable snow through Friday, seems like it would be difficult to ever break. Maybe an unbreakable record?

I suppose the Baltimore tally which is set to obliterate the record by nearly 30" is probably even more unbreakable. Really bad time to be a Mid-Atlantic snow weenie - that's for sure!

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I suppose the Baltimore tally which is set to obliterate the record by nearly 30" is probably even more unbreakable. Really bad time to be a Mid-Atlantic snow weenie - that's for sure!

I think the most surprising thing is even with that 30" + storm on the books, they've been straddling the record low 10-year snow. That's why once it drops off, it doesn't just a set a new record low - it absolutely obliterates the prior record.