2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some folks need to practice staying out of "defense mode" when someone else insinuates that they may be wrong, and/or have bias....I know it's tough to do, but when you own shit like that, not only is it better for your own mental health and prospects for personal enrichment moving forward, but it disarms the other side entirely, and avoids the OT bickering that derails these threads. I have bias, and am often wrong...it's called being human.

It's also fine if you don't actually agree that you are wrong....just tactfully explain it and the other side remains venomous, then they look like the ass.

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I declared a mea culpa on that last night....I was wrong on latter December blocking, though did get the emergence of Pacific troughing right...end result is I will be too warm for December. and maybe January. The stat warming last month was more impactful than I had theorized.

Your work is always solid! You do a tremendous job combing through data and laying out reasoning for your thoughts. But you want to get it right, I get that. I'm not really sure if anyone anywhere was really confident how that would go. Tricky situation. I sure had some doubts. Welcome development though for sure.

[stadiumwave]

Unless there is strong coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere it really does not matter.

 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strong PV doesn't necessarily mean "torch", either...

Indeed, which is something I’ve posted about before. I added this right after you read my post:

 But a stronger than avg SPV would by no means automatically be a death sentence to a cold E US. Example: Jan of 2025 had a near record strong SPV at times.

 In addition to Jan of 2025, these strong SPV Jan periods were also cold and/or snowy in at least much of the E US:

-2022

-Jan 1-8 of 2018, which had very cold and a very rare SE coastal snow

-2016: cold around the period of the huge NE snowstorm

-2014

-2nd half of 2011: big snows/cold NE

-1st half of 2010

-Jan 1-17 of 2009

-2nd half of 2005

-2nd half of 2000

-1st half of 1996

-1984

-Jan 1-18 of 1981

-Jan 9-20 of 1979

 

 

[bluewave]

 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 Based on your and Don’s reliable snowy La Niña Dec indicator, I’ve already predicted a near to above avg Jan+ NYC snowfall of  21”+, which would very likely mean a seasonal total of 30”+. We’ll see if it works once again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

@MJO812Congrats....I was wrong on December snow in NYC, and you were right. Reason being I missed the late month blocking. Let's see if you guys get above my 19-29" seasonal call.

[GaWx]

Based on the overall 0Z/6Z model consensus being not as cold in the E US as the 12Z/18Z model consensus, which had lead to ~15% gain by late evening (best day’s gain of all of 2025 so far), natural gas has not surprisingly had a good amount of selling, including profit taking, which has NG down over 4%. But that level is still 10-11% higher than the close of Monday.

 Let’s see whether or not the 12Z will bounce back colder. This market will likely tell us the answer without having to actually look at the models, themselves.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Unless there is strong coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere it really does not matter.

 

same exact thing happened last year, though it was even more impressive with a lack of a SSW. gives more credence to prolonged blocking with the EPS reloading in the LR

[GaWx]

On 12/22/2025 at 10:57 AM, GaWx said:

Look at how much the US population weighted HDD rose on the EPS mean from the 12/17 12Z run to the 12/22 0Z run for 12/28-31: 25 HDD (from 74 to 99)! This is from a way BN 74 to a NN 99. Normal is 100 HDD.

12/17 12Z HDD run in purple on left

 

12/22 0Z HDD run in purple on left

 Followup: As the quoted post showed, US pop weighted HDD rose sharply on the EPS from the 12/17 12Z run’s well BN 74 to the 12/22 (Mon) 0Z run’s NN 99 for 12/28-31, meaning a much colder change.

 What has happened on the EPS since that Mon run?

- 12/28-31 has maintained 24 of that 25 HDD gain from 12/17 with it at 98 HDD

- 1/1-4 has gone from a well BN 78 HDD in the 12/22 0Z run to a NN 101 on the 12/24 0Z run. And that’s even with the 12/24 0Z run not being as cold as the 12/23 12Z run’s 108 HDD!

-So, just since a week ago, the EPS’ US pop weighted HDD have increased a whopping ~47 HDD just for the period 12/28-1/4 (from way BN to NN)! That is a US avg of 6F colder per day, which probably means something like 8F colder/day in just the E US, alone, since the W is probably a little warmer.

12/24 0Z HDD run left side in purple:

12/22 0Z HDD run left side in purple

 

12/17 12Z HDD run left side in purple: look at how warm that run was compared to today’s! All days had BN to well BN HDDs: