2025-2026 ENSO

[Typhoon Tip]

Whaaaa

cluttering up a thread that’s 244 pages long? how the hell can you tell 

LOL

[raindancewx]

Subsurface decay is way ahead of last year. Doesn't mean we go to El Nino. But the warmth below the western tropical Pacific is advancing east and toward the surface pretty steadily.

[raindancewx]

By the way - this is the -ENSO (La Nina/near La Nina), -PNA, -WPO, -NAO composite for December since 1950. Its very similar to the pattern this month, but less extreme. The pattern this month has the cold/warm areas in the same place, just need to add at least 4-6F to both the cold (colder) and the warmth (warmer).

In the composite, January is still pretty cold. But you do see the cold retrogress hard to the West - in March. February is not coherent - its all over the place. -NAO if it continues becomes a pretty strong cold signal further west later in the winter, particularly Jan 15 and on.

[raindancewx]

Look familiar? This is Dec 1962, 1964, 1975, 2010 warmed up two degrees. Core heat Northwest, not Southwest. Core cold Lakes/Mid Atlatnic, not Northern Plains or New England. I just picked the best temp matches in the -PNA, -WPO, -NAO, -ENSO set.

These are all warmed up by 2F - still supports my idea since Sep/Oct of cold eventually retrogressing to the West.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is a look at what the month looks like to date. Had the right idea blending 2013/2024 -

Jan 2025/2014 doesn't look too different from month to date, but there are hints of changes by Alaska. I don't think the overall look of the pattern will collapse for a bit. But positioning of the key feature will migrate slowly in January.

Good work man !