2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

The models have all been struggling mightily. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

lol

The models keep missing the blocking in the long range. What a massive change.

[Yanksfan]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models keep missing the blocking in the long range. What a massive change.

So much for the big warmup. Great to see!

[Cobalt]

On 12/15/2025 at 1:21 PM, qg_omega said:

Pattern reversal is pretty amazing

 

[bncho]

Central Park may hit 4+" for December with 12/23 and 12/26. That's a great signal for the rest of the winter over there.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

It sure is

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, bncho said:

Central Park may hit 4+" for December with 12/23 and 12/26. That's a great signal for the rest of the winter over there.

It sure is. I already posted after the first storm a prediction of 21” minimum for Jan+, alone, on top of whatever Dec ends up with.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Is is possible that these charts also have an algorithmic issue? Here's the GEFS from NCEP's site:

Even though I posted the WxBell charts, I admit that there are often discrepancies in their tele charts vs NOAA. For example, check out the initializations:

NOAA is -1.8 today (which is what’s actually listed for today) and it’s forecasted to rise to -1.5 tomorrow.

But WxBell has -2.5 today and with it headed down to -2.9 tomorrow!

 

 It seems like WxBell often has wider variations up and down among other things.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It sure is. I already posted after the first storm a prediction of 21” minimum for Jan+, alone, in top of whatever Dec ends up with.

lol, January isn't coming close to 21 inches of snow. The snowiest January since the 2016 storm was 2022, and that was 15.3 inches, and 2018 is the only other year since then that has even topped 10 inches.

I'd be willing to bet that January ends up with less than 10 inches of snow and an above average temperature departure.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, January isn't coming close to 21 inches of snow. The snowiest January since the 2016 storm was 2022, and that was 15.3 inches, and 2018 is the only other year since then that has even topped 10 inches.

I'd be willing to bet that January ends up with less than 10 inches of snow and an above average temperature departure.

Another bold statement.  Some people haven't learned and its only December. 

[MJO812]

On 12/21/2025 at 2:53 PM, snowman19 said:

Obviously the EPS is totally lost. If it’s flip flopping that bad run to run in the long range, it’s not even worth taking it seriously right now no matter what it shows. The EPS and op EURO is definitely not what it used to be and the “updates” from a few years ago ruined it, it’s had some really abysmal failures the last few years

How about now ?

[MJO812]

On 12/19/2025 at 9:55 AM, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models get colder towards the end of this month into January with the NAO and AO dropping especially for the Northeast. Yes the PNA will be negative. 

I know the same culprits will weenie me but go ahead screenshot this like I have screenshotted all your missed calls.

Bingo 

On 12/19/2025 at 11:41 AM, Krs4Lfe said:

The pattern regression is quite impressive. There's no more being on the fence about that, the warm air will be pushing through this region and will likely result in the last 10 days of december being a few degrees above normal. Despite the -NAO, there's no opportunity for snow because no snow storms can form due to the coast to coast torch across CONUS. This is one of the quickest pattern regressions I've ever seen. All the calls for renewed cold air after this "brief" warmup will likely be very inaccurate. It'll take some pacific jet extension to shake this up, or there's a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat coming right up

 

On 12/20/2025 at 12:39 PM, Krs4Lfe said:

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

This what happens when you keep posting weenies for me.

On 12/21/2025 at 10:58 AM, yoda said:

Webb says we're screwed

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002755646454993016

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869

 

I wonder what hes thinking now. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How about now ?

If it flipped this much in 2 days, how do you know it won’t do it again? 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If it flipped this much in 2 days, how do you know it won’t do it again? 

Admit that you have been wrong. Its alright man and also keep giving me weenies. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, January isn't coming close to 21 inches of snow. The snowiest January since the 2016 storm was 2022, and that was 15.3 inches, and 2018 is the only other year since then that has even topped 10 inches.

I'd be willing to bet that January ends up with less than 10 inches of snow and an above average temperature departure.

 

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another bold statement.  Some people haven't learned and its only December. 

 PhiEagles, please read my post again. I said 21” minimum for Jan+, alone. I didn’t say Jan, alone. In other words, I was not including Dec in my 21”+ prediction.

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Admit that you have been wrong. It’s alright man and also keep giving me weenies. 

Early January happened already? And admit you were wrong about MJO phase 8 for 30 days and a major SSWE with an SPV split

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Early January happened already? And admit you were wrong about MJO phase 8 for 30 days and a major SSWE with an SPV split

Still changing the subject. You are a joke.

Anyway keep posting nonsense. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still changing the subject. You are a joke.

Anyway keep posting nonsense. 

You are setting yourself up to be trolled relentlessly if this fails and if your snowstorm fantasies tomorrow and the weekend/next week fail and make no mistake about it, I will. Hard to believe you’re a cop

[GaWx]

 Would snowman and MJO mind taking their constant arguing to PM? It’s cluttering up the thread with useless BS.

[leo2000]

One thing is obvious that warm pattern keeps getting pushed back time and time again. The latest Euro Weeklies the most reliable period being the first two weeks show colder than normal temperatures for all the east coast. 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Look at how much Dec 29-Jan 4 has cooled vs 2 days ago on the EPS thanks to the stronger -NAO pushing back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining.

Two days ago:

Today:

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

Central Park may hit 4+" for December with 12/23 and 12/26. That's a great signal for the rest of the winter over there.

IMO it already has lol

[Jersey Andrew]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Look at how much Dec 29-Jan 4 has cooled vs 2 days ago on the EPS thanks to the stronger -NAO pushing back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining.

Two days ago:

Today:

Stunning changes to say the least. What is causing such large discrepancies?

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Stunning changes to say the least. What is causing such large discrepancies?

I don’t know why the NAO and its influence has been underdone on the models, but these kinds of things make forecasting discussions so interesting. Just think if the models were all knowing. The discussion would be pretty boring.