2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Good points. But if there were a clearly identified long time model bias,  adjusting for that would obviously make sense.

Models have a situational bias based on the specific weather regime.

Long range models tend to underestimate the warmth in warmer patterns. None of the long range models saw the warmth in December 2015 from November forecasts.  Same for the too numerous to count warmer periods since then.

They also underestimate the cold from long range forecasts at times in the fewer colder patterns we get. As the recent November forecasts missed the first half of December cold. This was also the case before the transition to colder in 2014-2015.

It’s just that the climate has become so skewed toward warmth, as Guy shows below,  that there is much more opportunity to underestimate warmth than cold since it occurs so much more frequently. 
 

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark What is the RONI out of curiosity? I’m assuming the Niña is about to peak soon (within the next couple of weeks?)….OISST has started cooling again, it’s around -0.7C right now 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark What is the RONI out of curiosity? I’m assuming the Niña is about to peak soon (within the next couple of weeks?)….OISST has started cooling again, it’s around -0.7C right now 

SON is -.85

[PhiEaglesfan712]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you are correct about a 1989-90 turnaround, that would be astounding. 89-90 saw the biggest, most dramatic pattern flip in the last 50 years. We went from an ice cold arctic tundra in November and December to palm trees sprouting in January and February….

Pretty much all the metrics are screaming at me "warm January and February". I mean, we got a deep -IOD. The last 2 times we had that, January and February literally torched.

89-90 is once in a lifetime, though. We had the coldest December, than turned into spring in January, and winter never really returned.

PHL temperatures (Dec 1989-Mar 1990):

Dec 89: 25.5

Jan 90: 40.3

Feb 90: 41.2

Mar 90: 46.1

A 15-degree increase in between December and January is absurd. That's something you see in between spring months (and sometimes, you don't even get a monthly swing that big).

The Decembers in 95, 00, 05, and 10 all ended up in the 31-34.5 range (and this December may end up not even being that cold), so the turnaround won't be as dramatic.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Pretty much all the metrics are screaming at me "warm January and February". I mean, we got a deep -IOD. The last 2 times we had that, January and February literally torched.

89-90 is once in a lifetime, though. We had the coldest December, than turned into spring in January, and winter never really returned.

PHL temperatures (Dec 1989-Mar 1990):

Dec 89: 25.5

Jan 90: 40.3

Feb 90: 41.2

Mar 90: 46.1

A 15-degree increase in between December and January is absurd. That's something you see in between spring months (and sometimes, you don't even get a monthly swing that big).

The Decembers in 95, 00, 05, and 10 all ended up in the 31-34.5 range (and this December may end up not even being that cold), so the turnaround won't be as dramatic.

Way too early to say since long range has been awful.  Typical la Nina's do have a warm February and March but this isnt a typical one. Its dying. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Way too early to say since long range has been awful.  Typical la Nina's do have a warm February and March but this isnt a typical one. Its dying. 

It is absolutely a typical Niña. They all usually peak in December and then start weakening. It’s cooling right now and is at -0.7C. It probably peaks within the next couple of weeks then starts weakening toward cold-neutral. That would fit climo perfectly for a normal La Niña event

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It is absolutely a typical Niña. They all usually peak in December and then start weakening. It’s cooling right now and is at -0.7C. It probably peaks within the next couple of weeks then starts weakening toward cold-neutral. That would fit climo perfectly for a normal La Niña event

So these very cold temps and snow as far south as the southern mid atlantic is typical ? Not at all.

[EasternLI]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think we see a strong +NAO stretch in January, which will lead into a period of +TNH later in the month.

I think I see where you're coming from with that. I could buy that. Fits in with the natural progression of similar past events well I think. Still really interested to see how this year ultimately handles matters. 

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So these very cold temps and snow as far south as the southern mid atlantic is typical ? Not at all.

They have seen cold all the way into Florida in many past La Niña Decembers lol

[Terpeast]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So these very cold temps and snow as far south as the southern mid atlantic is typical ? Not at all.

You‘re right about that, this doesn’t seem like a typical La Nina, even though cold decembers do follow the nina pattern. 

We have three defining features right now:

1) Stratosphere activity

2) MJO activity in phase 7-8 and/or split forcing

3) Strong -WPO

Even with a warm up this month, the models maintain all three features and in conjunction they lead to a cold January based on historical analog matches. 

If - and a big IF - we lose ALL three features by January (strong SPV, MJO 3-4-5, +WPO that scours cold air out of Canada), January will torch like 2006 and 2017. 

But right now, I don’t see us losing any one of these features.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[GaWx]

Per the quite fallible model consensus:

 The -WPO looks to easily be the strongest in Dec since 2013. Other strong -WPO (sub -1.00) Decembers: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1999, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1976, 1975, 1966, 1961, 1956, 1955, and 1954.

 So, Dec of 2025 has a good shot at making the top 20% strongest -WPOs.

 How was the subsequent Jan WPO for these 15?

Negative WPO Jan: 2011, 1996, 1981, 1977, 1976, 1962, 1957, and 1956 (8 of the 15)

Neutral WPO Jan: 2010, 2000, 1955

Positive WPO Jan: 2014, 2006, 1990, 1967

 So, these strong -WPO Decembers were somewhat biased toward -WPO Jan with twice as many -WPO Jans as +WPO Jans

 The current model consensus *fwiw* suggests there’s a good chance we don’t end up with a -EPO for Dec as a whole with a lean toward fairly neutral to potentially +EPO when averaged out. How often have there been strong -WPO Decs without a -EPO?

- -EPO Dec: 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1980, 1976

- neutral EPO Dec: 2010, 1995, 1966, 1956, 1955

- +EPO Dec: 1999, 1975, 1961, 1954

 So, Dec EPO was pretty balanced for strong -WPO Decembers

 

Monthly WPO:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

 

[donsutherland1]

IMO, La Niña will fade during January. It still has some life left in it. 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[BlizzardWx]

Per Roundy the warm pool near the MC continues to move east. One would think, especially if this continues, the default forcing may shift east as well. 

[BlizzardWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark What is the RONI out of curiosity? I’m assuming the Niña is about to peak soon (within the next couple of weeks?)….OISST has started cooling again, it’s around -0.7C right now 

As of the 7th I had the RONI at -0.97. 

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

1. Where’s “Star” located?

2. No index ever even comes close to guaranteeing anything. That’s nothing new to us.

3, However: The period Dec 3-17, which is prior to the days his maps are showing, is currently looking to end up much colder than normal in the majority of the E US, including a top 3-5 coldest of the last 50 years in many places. That would jibe well with phase 8’s cold E US tendency.

[BlizzardWx]

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Assuming my general idea is right: Cold eventually retrogrades to the West, you should see ice storms, blizzards, and tornadoes (probably in that order) in the Southern Plains later in the winter.

If you're convinced Chuck is right, you had a several nasty ice storms in 1989-1990, as well as in late 2005 in December. There was a warm up I believe in 2013-14 too, with a pretty nasty ice storm in SE Canada at some point in December - don't really remember when.

We did have pretty extensive cold waves at times in Dec 2013 like we're seeing now. But with the even more expansive coverage, you had an almost immediate snap pack to a thaw/warm pattern the following week.

 

This was the height of the Dec 2013 cold snap locally -

2013-12-05	39	19	29.0	-8.8	36	0	0.35	3.5	3
2013-12-06	37	11	24.0	-13.6	41	0	0.00	0.0	2
2013-12-07	33	18	25.5	-11.8	39	0	0.00	0.0	1
2013-12-08	38	18	28.0	-9.1	37	0	0.01	0.5	1
2013-12-09	33	9	21.0	-15.9	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2013-12-10	34	10	22.0	-14.7	43	0	0.00	0.0	0
2013-12-11	44	13	28.5	-8.0	36	0	0.00	0.0	0
2013-12-12	41	19	30.0	-6.3	35	0	0.00	0.0	0

Thanks for the comments. I do think we will get our turn down here in January or early February. 

[GaWx]

After a big drop yesterday of 7%, natural gas prices are again sharply lower today (down 5% for a 2 day total of 12%) on warmer E US prospects for at least late this month. It’s very rare for NG to drop that much in early winter with cold looking to dominate for the foreseeable future, which as we know is not at all the case after about a week of intense E US cold per model consensus. Week one’s intense cold is already built into the price.

 It’s usually changes in prospects for week 2 into early week 3 that drive daily changes in NG prices. That’s because week one is normally already priced in and typically doesn’t jump around too much. And beyond early week 3 is usually too far out in fantasyland/too little forecasting skill that far out to have too much impact.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

After a big drop yesterday of 7%, natural gas prices are again sharply lower today (down 5% for a 2 day total of 12%) on warmer E US prospects for at least late this month. It’s very rare for NG to drop that much in early winter with cold looking to dominate for the foreseeable future, which as we know is not at all the case after about a week of intense E US cold per model consensus. Week one’s intense cold is already built into the price. It’s usually changes in prospects for week 2 into early week 3 that drive daily changes in NG prices.

 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Where’s “Star” located?

2. No index ever even comes close to guaranteeing anything. That’s nothing new to us.

3, However: The period Dec 3-17, which is prior to the days his maps are showing, is currently looking to end up much colder than normal in the majority of the E US, including a top 3-5 coldest of the last 50 years in many places. That would jibe well with phase 8’s cold E US tendency.

Alabama. After Georgia routed Alabama, he’s feeling the pain. 

[TheClimateChanger]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Alabama. After Georgia routed Alabama, he’s feeling the pain. 

They'll be okay. They got the kids glove treatment by the Committee.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

As of the 7th I had the RONI at -0.97. 

 

Yea, I really just watch the tri-monthly value.