2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As per @GaWx research, 1983 did not have any stratospheric warmings in November or December. Furthermore, 1983 was a volcanic winter with a volcanic stratosphere; courtesy of a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before in 1982. It was also a +QBO winter and a had a strongly +PDO 

 

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter. 

 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You will go crazy if you take every run verbatim . I wish the weeklies went back to weekly. 

I mean, this highlights a problem you bring up all the time about people like snowman spreading their agenda, because here you do a similar thing. Whenever the weeklies show something good you're like "it'll be cold" but whenever the weeklies trend bad you cover it up as shown above.

[stadiumwave]

40 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible. 

 

You are about as objective as a politician answering questions during a press conference. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter. 

 

Then I stand corrected on that part of my post. I thought December, 83 was +QBO, my bad on that. But the other aspects I mentioned are definitely correct 

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp changes vs yesterday aren’t good for the E US overall if you prefer cold:

Dec 1-7: warmer SE to Mid-Atlantic due to even stronger SE ridge:

 

Dec 8-14: ~unchanged

 

Dec 15-21: warmer SE/very slightly warmer NE

 

Dec 22-28: slightly warmer Mid-Atlantic/very slightly warmer SE:

 

Dec 29-Jan 4: warmer NE

December is trending in the wrong direction which is very concerning for an La Niña winter and a big SSWE in November

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies update on the SPV compared to last run keeps the reversal (or near reversal) but it’s a fair bit stronger Dec-early Jan. Keep in mind that the prior two runs were already significantly stronger for that period:

Today’s EW mean zonal wind at 10 mb (11/21): significantly stronger than 11/18 run with, for example, 12/12 at +29 vs +11 on 11/18 run:

 

EW run from just 3 days ago (11/18): 12/12 had been at only +11

 

If Simon Lee is correct about 96-97 being a stratospheric analog, then a strengthening SPV into January would fit

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

December is trending in the wrong direction which is very concerning for an La Niña winter and a big SSWE in November

What are you talking about ? This forum is getting ridiculous. 

December is below normal on the weeklies.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, bncho said:

I mean, this highlights a problem you bring up all the time about people like snowman spreading their agenda, because here you do a similar thing. Whenever the weeklies show something good you're like "it'll be cold" but whenever the weeklies trend bad you cover it up as shown above.

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm.  No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

[stadiumwave]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm.  No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

 

You have the greatest hits of subjective posters (3 of them) feeding the general pessimism from the others. I mean I get it...typical year on weather forums, lol. 

[dmillz25]

The pattern hasn’t even occurred yet and ppl are yelling declaratives 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm.  No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

I understand what you're trying to get at, and I agree with you--December isn't looking warm at all, especially for those north of Baltimore. I have no idea where some of those people get that idea from. However, I think it's important to take responsibility, as I thought you had tried to cover up warm trends on the weeklies. Obviously we have our different perspectives as to what happens,  but I was just commenting on what I noticed. 

Winter isn't over at all, because we're still in November, and we have no idea what the end result will be. Nothing is set in stone. So here's to a snowy winter!

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

I understand what you're trying to get at, and I agree with you--December isn't looking warm at all, especially for those north of Baltimore. I have no idea where some of those people get that idea from. However, I think it's important to take responsibility, as I thought you had tried to cover up warm trends on the weeklies. Obviously we have our different perspectives as to what happens,  but I was just commenting on what I noticed. 

Winter isn't over at all, because we're still in November, and we have no idea what the end result will be. Nothing is set in stone. So here's to a snowy winter!

The Weeklies have it mainly mild in the SE first 3 weeks of Dec, not the NE, thanks to a SE ridge. Anthony asked where’s the warmth? The maps he posted had SE warmth.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Weeklies have it mainly mild in the SE first 3 weeks of Dec, not the NE, thanks to a SE ridge. Anthony asked where’s the warmth? The maps he posted had SE warmth.

Im sure he was referring to his location. I see no warmth at all in MI in the means. Doesn't mean there won't be a mild day or two.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This map is a great one to show why snowlovers in the Great Lakes always prefer nina over nina. 

That's a great map.

[donsutherland1]

The latest week 3-4 CPC outlook:

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If Simon Lee is correct about 96-97 being a stratospheric analog, then a strengthening SPV into January would fit

Same page with him on that, but I think we see a reversal in February.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

End of the 0z EPS is showing a +2std +NAO

All the roll forward stuff this year was predicting it for the Winter at about a +0.2-0.3 correlation:

- 7 straight +NAO months Feb to August

- 8 straight +AO months March to October 

- Lag from Solar Max

0z EPS mean 360hr:

[Newman]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest week 3-4 CPC outlook:

As has been discussed ad nauseam here, I don't believe there's anything to worry about regarding a colder and *potentially snowier* pattern setting up mid-December and beyond for the northeast. The SE ridge will be suppressed enough to allow the baroclinic boundary to slowly inch south and eastward towards the coast, the CPC map you shared is highlighting that (just compare weeks 3-4 to weeks 2-3). It won't happen in an instant, but the cold will try to bleed south into the northern Mid-Atlantic towards the second or third week of December which should offer chances of snow. The nuances in the flow are impossible to figure out at this point, hence *potentially snowy*. Fail mode is obviously if the -PNA overpowers any SE ridge suppression.

[bluewave]

You can already see the model differences between the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS at the end of their respective runs. The GEFS and GEPS hold onto the Western trough and Southeast ridge longer than the EPS.

It’s probably due to the GEFS and GEPS showing more Maritime Continent forcing longer than the EPS. One of the EPS biases is dampening the convection too much there week 2 and beyond.

This is why I like to use the VP anomaly charts over the RMM charts  which can follow the convection to the east. One of the features of recent Decembers is a tendency for the forcing to linger in that region than the models originally anticipate. 

This lingering convection is why it has been so difficult in recent years to get a clean MJO 8 with no convection in that area like we last had in January 2022. So patience is often  required this time of year as the pattern change to colder is usually delayed.  

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

41 minutes ago, Newman said:

As has been discussed ad nauseam here, I don't believe there's anything to worry about regarding a colder and *potentially snowier* pattern setting up mid-December and beyond for the northeast. The SE ridge will be suppressed enough to allow the baroclinic boundary to slowly inch south and eastward towards the coast, the CPC map you shared is highlighting that (just compare weeks 3-4 to weeks 2-3). It won't happen in an instant, but the cold will try to bleed south into the northern Mid-Atlantic towards the second or third week of December which should offer chances of snow. The nuances in the flow are impossible to figure out at this point, hence *potentially snowy*. Fail mode is obviously if the -PNA overpowers any SE ridge suppression.

I wanted to illustrate that CPC isn’t panicking. This map at that timeframe is along the lines of what many of us are thinking. It’s very close to my baseline scenario.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can already see the model differences between the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS at the end of their respective runs. The GEFS and GEPS hold onto the Western trough and Southeast ridge longer than the EPS.

It’s probably due to the GEFS and GEPS showing more Maritime Continent forcing longer than the EPS. One of the EPS biases is dampening the convection too much there week 2 and beyond.

This is why I like to use the VP anomaly charts over the RMM charts  which can follow the convection to the east. One of the features of recent Decembers is a tendency for the forcing to linger in that region than the models originally anticipate. 

This lingering convection is why it has been so difficult in recent years to get a clean MJO 8 with no convection in that area like we last had in January 2022. So patience is often  required this time of year as the pattern change to colder is usually delayed.  

 

 

 

6z GEFS 

No western trough but a Great Lakes trough .

You are overthinking this. Everything still looks fine going forward.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z GEFS 

No western trough but a Great Lakes trough .

You are overthinking this. Everything still looks fine going forward.

That's a major +NAO. 

The cold anomalies are from -EPO that happens days before. By the end of the run, it's neutralizing and more of a -PNA is trying to build. There is a few day lag between the evolving Pacific pattern and US Temps. It's pointing to an above average 2nd week of Dec. At 384hr you can already see the SE ridge trying to build. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's a major +NAO. 

The cold anomalies are from -EPO that happens days before. By the end of the run, it's neutralizing and more of a -PNA is trying to build. There is a few day lag between the evolving Pacific pattern and US Temps. It's pointing to an above average 2nd week of Dec. At 384hr you can already see the SE ridge trying to build. 

 
Of course thats a - EPO and its certainly not a western trough.

Youre not going to have a - NAO when the polar vortex is in Eastern Canada .

Also , this isnt a torch in 2nd week of December.  

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 
Of course thats a - EPO and its certainly not a western trough.

Youre not going to have a - NAO when the polar vortex is in Eastern Canada .

Also , this isnt a torch in 2nd week of December.  

That's at odds with the end of the EPS. You're posting a 1.5 day old model. 

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's a major +NAO. 

The cold anomalies are from -EPO that happens days before. By the end of the run, it's neutralizing and more of a -PNA is trying to build. There is a few day lag between the evolving Pacific pattern and US Temps. It's pointing to an above average 2nd week of Dec. At 384hr you can already see the SE ridge trying to build. 

 

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's at odds with the end of the EPS. You're posting a 1.5 day old model. Notice the +temps over the Hudson bay in your map.. couldn't be further from the strong +NAO at hr360. It's not going to change back that fast. 

If you put this EPS in motion prior to the 360hr link below, the SER is getting squashed. Also, AO region looks good. Plus, beyond this period, the Eps extended shows movement into 8. Still not high confidence on the MJO, but Cfs2, which is an extension of the Gefs, has the MJO in 8 too. So there's evidence of positive steps in December, which is better than the opposite. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025112200&fh=360

[snowman19]

Same page with him on that, but I think we see a reversal in February.

Obviously way too early to declare victory, but if this SPV progression verifies, at least the December ideas in your winter forecast are going to be very good. Paul Roundy is also in agreement with you that the PNA goes negative/RNA once we start getting towards mid-December based on the expected progression of low frequency tropical convective forcing…..

^ “This morning's zonal GPH anomaly plot + GFS forecast, showing the strato PV disturbance peaking during the week/10 days, and reaching down to about 50 hPa.

There appears to be some propagation to lower levels later on, but the models contrast sharply in this regard, with ECM showing a re-strengthening of the PV in the same timeframe.

It aligns with the overall trend observed, with the current PV displacement resulting from a stronger strato anticyclone over Alaska/Canada, and the vortex core shifting over Siberia.

After that, ENS members show a possible re-centering over the Arctic, with the anticyclonic area losing intensity and effects over the PV.

We'll need to monitor what happens in the next two weeks or so.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You're not going to get a below average temp pattern with that upper latitude and Pacific H5. That's a +2 +nao and developing -pna.. it's going to flux the SE ridge after unless the models are wrong about those 2 patterns. 

CFS MJO? I'd look more at the plots bluewave posted above. 

[stadiumwave]

Winter cancel?

0z EPS DEC 4

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What is with these weird hours? 354hr? 306hr? 

We'll probably get a below average period after Thanksgiving into the first week of Dec as the EPO will be negative.. probably unlikely we see snow though. Then the pattern retrogrades and changes pretty quickly. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You're not going to get a below average temp pattern with that upper latitude and Pacific H5. That's a +2 +nao and developing -pna.. it's going to flux the SE ridge after unless the models are wrong about those 2 patterns. 

CFS MJO? I'd look more at the plots bluewave posted above. 

The question is what period you're discussing. There are conflicting signs the way I see it. Even conflicts with the models' own MJO forecasts and 5H forecasts. In the end, all that be done is to look at modeling and hug whichever one suites one's opinion/gut/biases since everything remains on the table once out 7+ days. But we can't deny the medium and long range forecasts this year of warm, like last year, have not been great. So that along with a weak Niña on its way out the door by year end with noticeable western Pacific cooling, I think the urge to assume warmer LR forecasts are going to verify is risky for now. If they do verify, that will change things in my weenie mind.