2025-2026 ENSO

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is a good post imho and mirrors my general thinking:
 

ready 2 b buried

[snowman19]

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb 60N mean zonal wind isn’t as weak as recent runs:

Today’s run (11/19):

 

Yesterday’s (11/18):

 

Does anyone else see what I’m referring to? I’m not just talking about whether it actually reverses. I’m talking more about the period afterward.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He is a smart guy but he has been wrong in the past.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weekly 2m temp anomalies vs yesterday’s run:

Dec 1-7: ~same

Dec 8-14: similar for most/slightly stronger cold in Lakes region

 

Dec 15-21: similar for most/slightly colder NNE

Dec 22-28: similar for most/slightly colder NE/slightly less cold Lakes region:

[brooklynwx99]

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

 Why not? Other long range models run daily like GEFS. Long range should always be taken with a grain, regardless, due to high levels of forecast uncertainty. But why not run them daily since despite unreliability they can at least hint at potential trend changes past 2 weeks. The EW have been halfway decent imho. For one thing, they had very early hints about the upcoming very weak SPV. For another, they’ve done pretty well with hints about general levels of Atlantic tropical activity weeks out.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

Snowmap looks great for the east. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weekly 2m temp anomalies vs yesterday’s run:

Dec 1-7: ~same

Dec 8-14: similar for most/slightly stronger cold in Lakes region

 

Dec 15-21: similar for most/slightly colder NNE

Dec 22-28: similar for most/slightly colder NE/slightly less cold Lakes region:

Huh. So I guess they’re actually not showing “extreme cold” like I just read on twitter. Man oh man, you have to be really careful who you follow there 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Huh. So I guess they’re actually not showing “extreme cold” like I just read on twitter. Man oh man, you have to be really careful who you follow there 

No one said " extreme cold " but you said warm and thats not going to happen .

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Huh. So I guess they’re actually not showing “extreme cold” like I just read on twitter. Man oh man, you have to be really careful who you follow there 

honest question, why are you even on twitter? I avoid twitter like the plague

there are enough knowledgeable people here

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one said " extreme cold " but you said warm and thats not going to happen .

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

[FPizz]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a miserable person.  Sad.

 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks Don,

 I see your point about the unpredictability of upcoming NE snow. Moreover, this thread isn’t strictly about NE snow (as you know). It’s of course also about NE and other areas’ temperatures, wintry precip in other areas, and many other things.

 Wintry precip, which is usually more variable/localized than the cold influence of Arctic airmasses, is thus often less predictable than temperatures. Therefore, regarding the potential lagged effects of an SSWE, I’m guessing that temperatures in the NE US as well as for other areas for whatever period would be less unpredictable than snowfall. From what I’ve learned, there’s a significantly better chance than normal for a multi week long period of cold domination in the E US usually starting 2-3+ weeks after an SSW. More often than not the cold will appear in the E US. Most likely that would naturally mean increased wintry precip in parts of the E US, but where is the question?

 Especially if there’s a decent sized sample, I do like to look back at specific cities’ stats (temps and wintry precip) to give me some idea of the potential, regardless.

I used the NE as an example, because it seemed that a lot of the commentary had been focused on the NE U.S. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

Yes because being rude is a great way to get your point across

[bncho]

chill yall. this is a thread to talk about ENSO, not a thread to belittle people because of their biases warm/cold. jeez

[snowman19]

From Dr. Simon Lee, for those who don’t know, he’s a college professor of meteorology and an expert on the stratosphere, has written many papers on it. Here’s what he has to say:

[BlizzardWx]

I saw this graphic on X from Eric Webb showing the cooling lower stratosphere in the tropics. It seems the trend in strengthening the MJO is likely related to models catching on to the effects of the stratospheric warming as well as the final warming at the south Pole (strengthened Brewer Dobson circulation). Perhaps this is what will finally allow us to see a robust MJO through phases 7-8-1. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

What a miserable person.  Sad.

 

The start year for this has to be 1951 because the November 25, 1950 record is just about impossible to beat out. Atlanta got to 3 degrees that day, and the places where the record low would be got to below 0.

[BlizzardWx]

Some guidance wants to bring one of the PV lobes into North America. The 06Z AIFS does this near the end of its run, and unsurprisingly is building some very cold air at the surface at this same time. Obviously that is what we would want to see heading into December. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Some guidance wants to bring one of the PV lobes into North America. The 06Z AIFS does this near the end of its run, and unsurprisingly is building some very cold air at the surface at this same time. Obviously that is what we would want to see heading into December. 

Looks like a cold end to November. A huge change from when the models showed a mild end.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is my thinking, as well...but I am nervous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb 60N mean zonal wind isn’t as weak as recent runs:

Today’s run (11/19):

 

Yesterday’s (11/18):

 

Does anyone else see what I’m referring to? I’m not just talking about whether it actually reverses. I’m talking more about the period afterward.

This trend is more in line what with my thought process. I anticipate a more rapid recovery of the PV than some guidance has implied due largely to how I feel the stratosphere will evolve mid season (mid January reflection event).

[EasternLI]

Gotta watch this. If you pop a poleward Scandinavian ridge here that suggests further damage to the PV sometime in December.

[michsnowfreak]

52 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The start year for this has to be 1951 because the November 25, 1950 record is just about impossible to beat out. Atlanta got to 3 degrees that day, and the places where the record low would be got to below 0.

Not sure if it matters but those were 500mb temps, not surface temps.

That said, November 1950 saw an incredible shift in temps. At Detroit, November 1st saw the all-time November high temp of 81°, to this day the only time 80 has been seen in November...then 7° on November 24th.