2025-2026 ENSO

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is a good post imho and mirrors my general thinking:
 

ready 2 b buried

[snowman19]

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb 60N mean zonal wind isn’t as weak as recent runs:

Today’s run (11/19):

 

Yesterday’s (11/18):

 

Does anyone else see what I’m referring to? I’m not just talking about whether it actually reverses. I’m talking more about the period afterward.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He is a smart guy but he has been wrong in the past.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weekly 2m temp anomalies vs yesterday’s run:

Dec 1-7: ~same

Dec 8-14: similar for most/slightly stronger cold in Lakes region

 

Dec 15-21: similar for most/slightly colder NNE

Dec 22-28: similar for most/slightly colder NE/slightly less cold Lakes region:

[brooklynwx99]

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

 Why not? Other long range models run daily like GEFS. Long range should always be taken with a grain, regardless, due to high levels of forecast uncertainty. But why not run them daily since despite unreliability they can at least hint at potential trend changes past 2 weeks. The EW have been halfway decent imho. For one thing, they had very early hints about the upcoming very weak SPV. For another, they’ve done pretty well with hints about general levels of Atlantic tropical activity weeks out.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

Snowmap looks great for the east.